Which states will be competitive in 2020?

[DPKdebator]

On the list above, I've listed every state with a margin of less than 10% for either party (plus Maine's 2nd district, which was slightly over a 10% margin for Trump). Here they are on a map:

183 Democratic
125 Republican
230 States under 10% + ME-02

How many of these states do you think will be competitive (in the sense that both parties have a decent shot at winning the state) in 2020?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

According to the polls

BIDEN/BULLOCK 290
Trump/Pence 248

[Frenchrepublican]

Competitive but tilt D : MI / PA

Competitive but tilt Trump : FL / ME 2nd

Very competitive : AZ (maybe a very slight D advantage) / WI / NE 2nd.

[eric82oslo]

According to Morning Consult's Trump approval ratings, the competitveness of those 17 states currently ranks as follow:

1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida
13. Colorado

15. Georgia

17. New Hampshire


20. Minnesota


23. Texas


However a comment about Texas. Due to their continuously booming economy, Texas has a tendency to give the current occupant of the White House a high approval rating whether it's a Democrat or a Republican. Texans' general approval of Obama was almost as high as their approval of Trump. So Texas is probably quite a bit more competitive than their currently fairly strong Trump approval would suggest. In the end, I believe it will be among the 20 closest states.

[Alben Barkley]

According to Morning Consult's Trump approval ratings, the competitveness of those 17 states currently ranks as follow:

1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida
13. Colorado

15. Georgia

17. New Hampshire


20. Minnesota


23. Texas


However a comment about Texas. Due to their continuously booming economy, Texas has a tendency to give the current occupant of the White House a high approval rating whether it's a Democrat or a Republican. Texans general approval of Obama was almost as high as their approval of Trump. So Texas is probably quite a bit more competitive than their currently fairly strong Trump approval would suggest. In the end, I believe it will be among he 20 most closest states.

Approval ratings are not the greatest way of judging competitiveness. If we were to go only by Morning Consult, Kansas and Utah for example would be very competitive states as Trump is only a couple points above water there and a few other deep red states (mostly in the Great Plains and Mountain West). But we know that's not the case.

Also I don't quite understand your ranking. Would closest states not be considered most competitive? Because Trump is only -2 in Florida for example, but -7 in Nevada. He's also only +3 in Texas.

[SN2903]

MI, PA, WI, NH, MN, ME, NV, AZ, CO will be competitive. VA will be if dems nominate Bernie.

OH, FL, are bordering on Likely Trump right now. If in 2018 the dems couldn't win any of the big races in FL I can honestly see Trump winning Florida by 7-8 pts in 2020.

IA is safe Trump.

[eric82oslo]

According to Morning Consult's Trump approval ratings, the competitveness of those 17 states currently ranks as follow:

1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida
13. Colorado

15. Georgia

17. New Hampshire


20. Minnesota


23. Texas


However a comment about Texas. Due to their continuously booming economy, Texas has a tendency to give the current occupant of the White House a high approval rating whether it's a Democrat or a Republican. Texans general approval of Obama was almost as high as their approval of Trump. So Texas is probably quite a bit more competitive than their currently fairly strong Trump approval would suggest. In the end, I believe it will be among he 20 most closest states.

Approval ratings are not the greatest way of judging competitiveness. If we were to go only by Morning Consult, Kansas and Utah for example would be very competitive states as Trump is only a couple points above water there and a few other deep red states (mostly in the Great Plains and Mountain West). But we know that's not the case.

Also I don't quite understand your ranking. Would closest states not be considered most competitive? Because Trump is only -2 in Florida for example, but -7 in Nevada. He's also only +3 in Texas.

I mean closest to tipping point, and during the entire Trump presidency, not just the latest month.

Regarding Kansas, they just elected a Democratic governor who currently has a very high approval rating, and there has been several other signs that the state might be shifting somewhat towards Democrats lately. Most Kansans are pretty moderate voters, just slightly to the right of the center, they seem to reject extremists to a higher degree than most other US states. Less partisan and more pragmatic than most states. The opposite are states like California and Mississippi where everyone are either super liberal and/or loyal to Democrats or very conservative. Kansas will still remain a Republican state for the foreseeable future, for the next 20 years or so, but I believe it will gradually shift towards the political center/Democrats.

[Alben Barkley]

MI, PA, WI, NH, MN, ME, NV, AZ, CO will be competitive. VA will be if dems nominate Bernie.

OH, FL, are bordering on Likely Trump right now. If in 2018 the dems couldn't win any of the big races in FL I can honestly see Trump winning Florida by 7-8 pts in 2020.

IA is safe Trump.

That's now how Florida elections work. Nobody in either party ever wins by 7-8 points, elections always come down to 217 disputed ballots in some random county.

Seriously though I might agree that Florida is as far gone as Ohio if it weren't for the fact that both its elections were insanely close in 2018, and 2016 was extremely close as well. It will be extremely close again. I don't expect the Dem to win, but that's different from saying it's safe R or that it will be won by a comfortable margin.

Also Colorado is not going to be any more competitive than Virginia probably, and Iowa is not "safe," let alone safer than Ohio.

[Alben Barkley]

According to Morning Consult's Trump approval ratings, the competitveness of those 17 states currently ranks as follow:

1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida
13. Colorado

15. Georgia

17. New Hampshire


20. Minnesota


23. Texas


However a comment about Texas. Due to their continuously booming economy, Texas has a tendency to give the current occupant of the White House a high approval rating whether it's a Democrat or a Republican. Texans general approval of Obama was almost as high as their approval of Trump. So Texas is probably quite a bit more competitive than their currently fairly strong Trump approval would suggest. In the end, I believe it will be among he 20 most closest states.

Approval ratings are not the greatest way of judging competitiveness. If we were to go only by Morning Consult, Kansas and Utah for example would be very competitive states as Trump is only a couple points above water there and a few other deep red states (mostly in the Great Plains and Mountain West). But we know that's not the case.

Also I don't quite understand your ranking. Would closest states not be considered most competitive? Because Trump is only -2 in Florida for example, but -7 in Nevada. He's also only +3 in Texas.

I mean closest to tipping point, and during the entire Trump presidency, not just the latest month

Fair enough, but when I think "competitive" I think the margins will be close and/or it realistically could go either way, not so much about how likely it is to be the tipping point.

Also not really sure if early months in the Trump presidency should be weighted as much as later months. Of course things could still change dramatically from here, but I was thinking what looks most competitive right now.

Also I agree about Kansas, perhaps it wasn't the best example but my point was we can be pretty sure it's not going to actually vote against Trump just because the people there don't really like him.

[Frenchrepublican]

MI, PA, WI, NH, MN, ME, NV, AZ, CO will be competitive. VA will be if dems nominate Bernie.

OH, FL, are bordering on Likely Trump right now. If in 2018 the dems couldn't win any of the big races in FL I can honestly see Trump winning Florida by 7-8 pts in 2020.

IA is safe Trump.

That's now how Florida elections work. Nobody in either party ever wins by 7-8 points, elections always come down to 217 disputed ballots in some random county.

Seriously though I might agree that Florida is as far gone as Ohio if it weren't for the fact that both its elections were insanely close in 2018, and 2016 was extremely close as well. It will be extremely close again. I don't expect the Dem to win, but that's different from saying it's safe R or that it will be won by a comfortable margin.

Also Colorado is not going to be any more competitive than Virginia probably, and Iowa is not "safe," let alone safer than Ohio.

Rubio in 2016 ?

[User155815470020]

According to Morning Consult's Trump approval ratings, the competitveness of those 17 states currently ranks as follow:

1. Nevada
2. Pennsylvania
3. Virginia
4. Ohio
5. Iowa
6. Arizona
7. Maine
8. New Mexico
9. North Carolina
10. Michigan
11. Wisconsin
12. Florida
13. Colorado

15. Georgia

17. New Hampshire


20. Minnesota


23. Texas


However a comment about Texas. Due to their continuously booming economy, Texas has a tendency to give the current occupant of the White House a high approval rating whether it's a Democrat or a Republican. Texans general approval of Obama was almost as high as their approval of Trump. So Texas is probably quite a bit more competitive than their currently fairly strong Trump approval would suggest. In the end, I believe it will be among he 20 most closest states.

Approval ratings are not the greatest way of judging competitiveness. If we were to go only by Morning Consult, Kansas and Utah for example would be very competitive states as Trump is only a couple points above water there and a few other deep red states (mostly in the Great Plains and Mountain West). But we know that's not the case.

Also I don't quite understand your ranking. Would closest states not be considered most competitive? Because Trump is only -2 in Florida for example, but -7 in Nevada. He's also only +3 in Texas.

I mean closest to tipping point, and during the entire Trump presidency, not just the latest month.

Regarding Kansas, they just elected a Democratic governor who currently has a very high approval rating, and there has been several other signs that the state might be shifting somewhat towards Democrats lately. Most Kansans are pretty moderate voters, just slightly to the right of the center, they seem to reject extremists to a higher degree than most other US states. Less partisan and more pragmatic than most states. The opposite are states like California and Mississippi where everyone are either super liberal and/or loyal to Democrats or very conservative. Kansas will still remain a Republican state for the foreseeable future, for the next 20 years or so, but I believe it will gradually shift towards the political center/Democrats.

Can't that be said of all states, though? Democrats have already won on the cultural issues front (reproductive rights, marriage equality, marijuana legalization, gun reform, and not relitigiating court issues over school prayer and birth control), so in 20 years--many Boomers die and the new generation reaches voting age--it seems they would all go Democrat. Also, if we think about demographics, even deep red states like MS and SC will be competitive by your logic, because they have great racial minority populations than "liberal"/blue northern states, but low turnout and voter suppression laws keep these states red.