Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Sanders is winning Pennsylvania by 9, he's certainly winning the election as a whole, easily.

Too bad he's only winning PA by 7 in this poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.