Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2
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  Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2  (Read 3455 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 15, 2019, 12:38:18 PM »
« edited: May 15, 2019, 02:24:30 PM by Frenchrepublican »

Matchups :

Biden wins 53/42
Sanders wins 50/43
Warren wins 47/44
Harris is tied 45/45
Buttigieg wins 45/44
O’Rourke loses 44/46

https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2019, 12:39:06 PM »

Biden 53
Trump 42

Sanders 50
Trump 43

Warren 47
Trump 44

Harris 45
Trump 45

Buttigieg 45
Trump 44

Trump 46
O'Rourke 44

Source
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Politician
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2019, 12:39:43 PM »

PittsburghSteel told me Harris would easily beat Trump in Pennsylvania, though.
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Matty
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2019, 12:40:18 PM »

Beto has been going around claiming he is most electable.....
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2019, 12:40:19 PM »

If Sanders is winning Pennsylvania by 9, he's certainly winning the election as a whole, easily.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2019, 12:41:47 PM »

I think that the undecided would break heavily for Trump, but it still would be an easy walk for Biden (and to some degree for Bernie).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2019, 12:43:28 PM »

If Sanders is winning Pennsylvania by 9, he's certainly winning the election as a whole, easily.

Too bad he's only winning PA by 7 in this poll. Wink
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2019, 12:43:42 PM »

I think that the undecided would break heavily for Trump, but it still would be an easy walk for Biden (and to some degree for Bernie).

I agree, besides the poll has Biden winning the white vote which is a bite strange.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2019, 12:45:11 PM »

I think that the undecided would break heavily for Trump, but it still would be an easy walk for Biden (and to some degree for Bernie).

I don't think they will break as heavily towards Trump as they did in 2016.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2019, 12:45:43 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2019, 12:46:09 PM »

If a mod could merge this thread with the other Q-PA poll, that would be great!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2019, 12:49:34 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2019, 12:53:40 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2018. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2019, 12:53:58 PM »

If a mod could merge this thread with the other Q-PA poll, that would be great!

Yeah, I agree
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2019, 12:54:37 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2016. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.

Do you mean 2018 ?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2019, 12:55:53 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2016. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.

Do you mean 2018 ?

Sorry yes, got my years mixed up.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2019, 12:57:56 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2019, 01:06:56 PM »

JOSEPH!!!

Wow, this is a tremendous poll for Uncle Joe. I know it's extremely early, but I don't see how Trump wins Pennsylvania against him. Uncle Joe won't win by eleven, more like three or four, but this is encouraging. These numbers are, however, concerning for anyone else in the race except for Bernie. To a degree, this may be name rec, but regardless Biden is at least for the moment the strongest candidate.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2019, 01:10:07 PM »

PA in 2016 was a fluke. Lean Dem, but closer to Likely D than toss up.
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Matty
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« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2019, 01:12:47 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2018. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.

It’s not always accurate to extrapolate midterm results to presidential forecasts.

If you tried doing that in 2010, 1994, and 2014, you would have had some pretty bad predictions

Not saying pa will vote for trump again, but it’s not out of the question. Depends on dem candidate quality.

My guess is that a harris or warren nomination would lead to a similar result as 2016

Harris is a atrocious fit for the rust belt, more so than Hillary
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2019, 01:28:49 PM »

PA in 2016 was a fluke. Lean Dem, but closer to Likely D than toss up.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2019, 02:18:05 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2019, 02:18:31 PM »

50-43=7, not 9.

Sanders is +7
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2019, 02:23:22 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2019, 02:27:42 PM by KYWildman »

If Sanders is winning Pennsylvania by 9, he's certainly winning the election as a whole, easily.

This doesn’t follow necessarily. First of all he’s actually leading by 7. Second of all he might be less likely to win Virginia and (especially) Nevada compared to Hillary. Third of all I maintain that Sanders will be destroyed by a general election campaign. The GOP has more than enough ammunition from his past to scare the hell out of moderates/independents and suburban voters who have been leaning D. It could just as easily end up as McGovern 2.0 after he’s put through the ringer.

Not so for Biden, who everyone knows and whose support is therefore more likely to be stable and predictable. And whose ties to PA almost guarantee a win in that state, unlike Bernie who couldn’t even beat Hillary there.

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Before we had Bernie Math, now we have Trump Math.

As you can see, that’s frightening stuff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHFB40WOMOo
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2019, 02:26:26 PM »

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Biden leading by 11 is almost as realistic than Trump leading by 4 in WI
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