Quinnipiac-PA: Biden +11, Sanders +7, Waren +3, Harris Tied, Butti +1, Beto -2

[Frenchrepublican]

Matchups :

Biden wins 53/42
Sanders wins 50/43
Warren wins 47/44
Harris is tied 45/45
Buttigieg wins 45/44
O’Rourke loses 44/46

https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620

[Frenchrepublican]

I think that the undecided would break heavily for Trump, but it still would be an easy walk for Biden (and to some degree for Bernie).

I agree, besides the poll has Biden winning the white vote which is a bite strange.

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

[Frenchrepublican]

If a mod could merge this thread with the other Q-PA poll, that would be great!

Yeah, I agree

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2016. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.

Do you mean 2018 ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016. 

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Biden leading by 11 is almost as realistic than Trump leading by 4 in WI

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8

Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time.  The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better.  It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.  

Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).

In 2016 Trump did three points better in PA than in the rest of the country, so if his approval rate is somewhere around -9 at the moment, you would expect a approval rate of -6 in PA which means that this poll is overestimating Biden by six points, in other words Biden is probably leading by a middle single digit margin in PA rather than a double digits one (at least as of now)

This post is hereby nominated for Poll Unskewer of the Month.

Biden leading by 11 is almost as realistic than Trump leading by 4 in WI

Biden is from Pennsylvania and a ticket with Biden on it won the state easily twice. Trump only won it by a fraction of a percentage point due to depressed Democratic turnout that would not exist with Biden as the nominee. Many more whites, suburban voters, blue collar voters, moderates, and independents — especially in that state — would likely break for Biden in a head-to-head with Trump. Trump currently has a -7 approval in PA according to Morning Consult, but it does not follow that means the poll is overestimating Biden, as “Who would you vote for” and “Who do you approve of” questions are different, and you can’t just add Trump’s 2016 margin in an entirely different race against an entirely different candidate on top like that. That’s now how math works. That’s not how anything works...

I’m realistic and I know that Biden would have the advantage over Trump in PA, but even with his home state advantage Biden won’t win PA by 11, he could win by a healthy margin of something like 52/47 but a double digits margin is difficult to believe unless he wins in a true landslide nationally. Concerning the approval rate of Trump, the fact that quinnipiac has him at -12 while he is at -8 nationally let me believe that they have simply oversampled democrat leaning voters and thus the poll will be too optimistic for them

[Frenchrepublican]

To me the most important fact that can be gleaned from the poll is that Biden is polling the best in PA relative to the other candidates vs Trump. I would like to see how he is doing in Michigan vs Trump, that would show whether Biden does really benefit from a home state bump or not. Trump right now vs Biden seems to be where he was in early August 2016 in PA, the Quinnipiac poll done in the first week of August found Clinton leading Trump 52-42, virtually identical numbers to Biden's lead.

Regarding Quinnipiac the only point I would make is it has had a fairly heavy dem bias in both the 2016 and 2018 election cycles, so I would subtract a few % from their numbers for the dems. Their last poll done Oct 27th - Nov 1st had Clinton leading by 6%, 50-44, similar to Sanders lead today and was off by the biggest margin relative to the final result of any of the major pollsters. They also were off by some pretty big margins in some of the 2018 races they polled.   

Yeah, they had Nelson up 51/44

[Frenchrepublican]

Harris numbers with the WWC might be worse than Clinton 2016, same goes for Warren but there are huge red flags for Dems with these two.

Don’t worry too much guy, they won’t be the D nominee unless something exceptional happens

[Frenchrepublican]

I wonder what Ohio is looking like right now with a Trump v Biden match up.

Polls will very likely show a very close race but considering that polls tend to overestimate Dems in this state (Cordray vs Dewine) I don’t see you should give them too much value