Trump approval is -12 which is certainly too low especially considering his national approval rate which is around -8
Trump's approval in the 538 average is currently -10.9, which is where it's roughly been for a long time. The RCP average has it closer, but the 538 methodology is arguably better. It's also not implausible for Trump to have lost significant ground in PA in 2016.
Having said that, I do agree that the poll looks a little too unfriendly for Trump (but not ridiculously so).
Yet this poll isn't that out of place when you considering just how much the PA electorate rejected the Republican Party in 2018. There are going to be some places in 2020 that snap back to Democrats like Indiana did for Republicans in 2012. PA is the best bet for that to happen.
It’s not always accurate to extrapolate midterm results to presidential forecasts.
If you tried doing that in 2010, 1994, and 2014, you would have had some pretty bad predictions
Not saying pa will vote for trump again, but it’s not out of the question. Depends on dem candidate quality.
My guess is that a harris or warren nomination would lead to a similar result as 2016
Harris is a atrocious fit for the rust belt, more so than Hillary
