Rate Montana if Bullock is the nominee

[Barack Oganja]

Ignore his likelihood of winning the nomination, what chance would Bullock have in his home state?

[😥]

Tossup, closer to Lean R. Bullock is the strongest potential Democratic nominee for Montana

[Xing]

Likely R

[Gracile]

He might make it more competitive than a standard Democrat, but I doubt he would win. The Home state advantage is an overrated factor. Success at the gubernatorial level does not always indicate success at the presidential level (overperformances of a state's partisan lean at the federal level are becoming increasingly rare).

[Matty]

He’d lose 54-46

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Likely R

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

He'd lose by a decent margin. The county map would be very interesting though.

[President Johnson]

Likely Republican. Bullock would do better than any other Democrat and probably lose by high single digits. However, he would beat Trump nationally by a comfortable margin.

[adamevans]

Titanium D. Bullock is an unbeatable titan.

In all seriousness though, probably lean or likely R.

[Sestak]

Yeah, going to have to agree with the Likely consensus.

[TDAS04]

At least lean, maybe likely, R.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually voted lean D. Perhaps that’s optimistic, but keep in mind Montana came within two points of voting for Obama in 2008, and voted for Bullock in 2016 even as Trump easily won it. It is a very elastic state, and I don’t see much evidence it would prefer Trump to Bullock in a head-to-head. The opposite, in fact, considering Bullock has a way higher approval rating than Trump in the state. Bottom line in a good year for the Dems and with Bullock as the candidate, I think he defies the state’s partisan lean and narrowly takes it. Home field advantage could be huge in a state as elastic as Montana and with a candidate as popular there as Bullock. In a bad year, however, and if he has been effectively “nationalized” during the campaign to the disgruntlement of the state’s voters, he loses narrowly.

[John Dule]

I actually voted lean D. Perhaps that’s optimistic, but keep in mind Montana came within two points of voting for Obama in 2008, and voted for Bullock in 2016 even as Trump easily won it. It is a very elastic state, and I don’t see much evidence it would prefer Trump to Bullock in a head-to-head. The opposite, in fact, considering Bullock has a way higher approval rating than Trump in the state. Bottom line in a good year for the Dems and with Bullock as the candidate, I think he defies the state’s partisan lean and narrowly takes it. Home field advantage could be huge in a state as elastic as Montana and with a candidate as popular there as Bullock. In a bad year, however, and if he has been effectively “nationalized” during the campaign to the disgruntlement of the state’s voters, he loses narrowly.

Voted Lean R for similar reasons. I think people here are underestimating how elastic Montana's elections are.

[Xing]

I can’t wait for MT Treasurer to find this thread, lol.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Safe D, with Scranton Joe and Populist Steve on the ticket.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock is likely to be VEEP, he comes from a WWC background that is perfect for Biden, he will be a factor, as well as others like Kamala Harris, as Biden is all but assured the nomination.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bullock is likely to be VEEP, he comes from a WWC background that is perfect for Biden, he will be a factor, as well as others like Kamala Harris, as Biden is all but assured the nomination.

It's tough to say whether Biden should try to expand his base by nominating a Sunbelt woman/minority or go for the Clinton/Gore 1992 playbook and double down on your strength with the WWC.

[Grassroots]

Lean R

[lfromnj]

Likely R. Could see Lean R argument.

[edmund]

Bill Clinton carried it in 1992 also against an incumbent President so under the right circumstances it’s doable.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R, I would still expect a 10+ point R win.

[Cold War Liberal]

He might make it more competitive than a standard Democrat, but I doubt he would win. The Home state advantage is an overrated factor. Success at the gubernatorial level does not always indicate success at the presidential level (overperformances of a state's partisan lean at the federal level are becoming increasingly rare).

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Bill Clinton carried it in 1992 also against an incumbent President so under the right circumstances it’s doable.

In a 3 way race...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Lean R. Montana is a small state, so i think the home state advantage in this state will matter more, as less people live in it, and as Montana is already open to electing Democrats in statewide offices.