KY-PPP (D): Generic D +10 vs Bevin

[ON Progressive]

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Kentucky-ECU-Memo-.pdf

Generic D 49
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 39

[MT Treasurer]

Generic D, sponsored by a liberal group, still six months left, yada yada yada, but it should be obvious that this race isn’t Safe R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, haven't seen this before

May 10th, 2015: Survey USA shows Conway up 10.

This poll has half the sample size and is sponsored by a liberal interest group. Completely useless.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

How hilarious would it be for Beshear to win and Hood and JBE to lose. Total destruction to both the "elastic deep south" and Safe R KY posters.

[Suburbia]

I told you Bevin is unpopular.

Bevin, Brownback take Republican states too far to the right, and the right Democrat can win.

[Comrade Funk]

Rocky Adkins will win the primary.

[President Johnson]

We should finally run this Unbeatable titan Generic Democrat guy. He's winning a 49 state landslide.

In all seriousness, I don't move this from lean/likely Republican to toss-up before non-Democratic polls show tight race in October. Beshear has a shot, but it's still Kentucky after all.

[Gracile]

I don't buy it, sorry.

[Canis]

We got three very strong candidates I think each is capable of beating Bevin my favorite is Edelen but all three could pull it off

[SnowLabrador]

Once Trump does a rally in Kentucky talking about how Beshear (or whoever the Democrat is) is a socialist, I expect Bevin to pull ahead.

[DaWN]

Whats the point of asking Generic D when there's already a presumptive Democratic nominee?

[President Johnson]

Once Trump does a rally in Kentucky talking about how Beshear (or whoever the Democrat is) is a socialist, I expect Bevin to pull ahead.

He'll claim Beshear is a Schumer puppet and weak at the border, even though that is not the responsibility of a (non-border-state) governor. And his suppoters will buy it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, Blue avatars says that its still Lean R, its a Beshear win, like Cook has it as a tossup

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yeah, this isn't Safe R but it's also not a tossup or Lean D. I think Bevin will end up winning by a little less than he did in 2015.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear will win

[Xing]

"Bredesen is up 10, how can you possibly say that this isn't at least a Toss-Up if not Lean D?"
"Heller's ahead, and just because Nevada polls were wrong before doesn't mean they'll be wrong again. Lean R."

If Bevin is down this much against a named opponent in October, then we'll talk.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol ! PPP ! And Trump at only +16 in KY
I always really love these unbiased questions about if you find this GOP guy ,,corrupt’’ or ,,too responsive to special interests’’ and when they ask thereafter what’s your opinion of him

Anyway D Governor Cordray and D senator Nelson who both won their respective election by a healthy margin can confirm how accurate PPP joke polls are.

[UncleSam]

Garbage poll but this’ll be competitive

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol ! PPP ! And Trump at only +16 in KY
I always really love these unbiased questions about if you find this GOP guy ,,corrupt’’ or ,,too responsive to special interests’’ and when they ask thereafter what’s your opinion of him

Anyway D Governor Cordray and D senator Nelson who both won their respective election by a healthy margin can confirm how accurate PPP joke polls are.

If they put up the 2019 gov predictions, we can predict for ourselves who will win, it's gonna be an arguement until Nov, LA safe D, and MS and KY are safe R

[Alben Barkley]

Some of these posts are so bad I — a lurker — literally felt compelled to sign up just to rebut them.

Clearly many of you understand little about Kentucky politics, but know just enough to be dangerous. As someone born and raised in the state, and who is very in-tune with its current political climate, allow me to explain a few things:

Yes, Kentucky has become far more inflexibly Republican over the past couple decades, and yes, this trend has been seen to some extent even in state level races. BUT that does not mean it is lost to Democrats forever in any race for any office against any candidate.

Jack Conway was a rather disliked figure in the state, or at least not particularly liked. There was little-to-no enthusiasm among just about anyone in the state to vote for Conway, not even among those who would have voted for him if forced to choose, which was why turnout was abysmal that year and why he lost decisively even though he led in the polls. It said nothing about Matt Bevin’s popularity in particular or a total reversal of Kentucky’s tendency to favor Democratic governors in spite of its heavy lean towards Republicans on the presidential/senatorial level. It just said everything about poorly motivated Democratic voters and strongly motivated Republican voters in 2015.

Now, however, Matt Bevin is an exceedingly unpopular known quantity who will most likely run against the son of a very popular governor — who won two statewide landslides within the last 15 years, long after the state went deep red — who himself managed to win statewide office the same year Bevin did, with far more voter enthusiasm in the Democrats’ favor this year than in 2015. He’s toast.

And I say this not just based on wishful thinking or some Louisville or Lexington bubble; my staunchly GOP, Trump voting relatives in south central and eastern Kentucky called Bevin, and I quote, “a f—ing idiot” last time I talked to them. He is literally the least popular governor in the country. His tenure has been plagued by extremely unpopular decisions and mutiny from his own party, which he has no firm grasp on or strong support from whatsoever. He has been booed heavily during speeches in eastern Kentucky and even at the Kentucky Derby. He’s about as popular as Roger Goodell now. Beshear will wipe the floor with him.

And no, a Trump endorsement will not save him any more than it saved Roy Moore, Patrick Morrissey, etc. Kentucky might be inelastic at the national level, and its recent polling history might be dubious, but I am still confident the state is capable for voting Democrat for governor against an incumbent as ridiculously bad as Matt Bevin, who is less popular than Ernie Fletcher ever was.

Yes, I base much of this on anecdotal experience, personal conversation, and gut instinct — but that proved more reliable than polls in 2016, when I became convinced Trump would win after driving through Ohio and Michigan and seeing Trump signs everywhere but no Hillary signs. Now I get the opposite feeling in this race; the support for Bevin is just not there. Everyone I know from all over the state and the political spectrum either openly hates him or is lukewarm about him at best. Beshear will win comfortably, improving on his own 2015 AG map. Mark my words.

[MT Treasurer]

We should finally run this Unbeatable titan Generic Democrat guy. He's winning a 49 state landslide.

Well, he’s trailing by 4 in Iowa, but Iowa polls/early Iowa polls are useless because they don’t factor in the state’s elasticity and the fact that 2016 was a one-off (never mind that Ernst won in 2014, not 2016).

[IceSpear]

This will be a fun bump in November.

Safe R -> Safe R

[RINO Tom]

We should finally run this Unbeatable titan Generic Democrat guy. He's winning a 49 state landslide.

Well, he’s trailing by 4 in Iowa, but Iowa polls/early Iowa polls are useless because they don’t factor in the state’s elasticity and the fact that 2016 was a one-off (never mind that Ernst won in 2014, not 2016).

I would like to politely decline your obsession with Iowa while I still can say I am a resident for another month.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Once Trump does a rally in Kentucky talking about how Beshear (or whoever the Democrat is) is a socialist, I expect Bevin to pull ahead.

He'll claim Beshear is a Schumer puppet and weak at the border, even though that is not the responsibility of a (non-border-state) governor. And his suppoters will buy it.

Sketchy Steve is a total Pelosi and Schumer puppet.....weak on guns, crime and the wall!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Except in 2007, another Beshear was elected Gov