If Richard Shelby never switched parties

[Roll Roons]

He'd retire in 1998.

It makes no sense for Shelby not to switch, so if for seem reason he doesn't it's probably because he's just going to retire instead of face a potentially challenging reelection.

Republicans won statewide in Alabama after 1998. I see no reason why he would have retired then. He would have scraped out a 1-2 victory in 2004 before retiring or losing by 8 in 2010.

Statewide elections =/= U.S. Senate elections, which are predictably more nationalized and higher-profile.  There's no way Shelby wins in 2004, and he'd face a steep uphill battle in 1998. 

2004 was a great year for the GOP in the Deep South - they picked up 5 Senate seats.  Shelby would be no more lucky.

5 OPEN Senate seats. Those seats wouldn't have gone R in 2004 if Graham, Miller, Hollings and Breaux had stayed (Edwards is a different story). Shelby the Democrat likely would have survived.

[Del Tachi]

He'd retire in 1998.

It makes no sense for Shelby not to switch, so if for seem reason he doesn't it's probably because he's just going to retire instead of face a potentially challenging reelection.

Republicans won statewide in Alabama after 1998. I see no reason why he would have retired then. He would have scraped out a 1-2 victory in 2004 before retiring or losing by 8 in 2010.

Statewide elections =/= U.S. Senate elections, which are predictably more nationalized and higher-profile.  There's no way Shelby wins in 2004, and he'd face a steep uphill battle in 1998. 

2004 was a great year for the GOP in the Deep South - they picked up 5 Senate seats.  Shelby would be no more lucky.

5 OPEN Senate seats. Those seats wouldn't have gone R in 2004 if Graham, Miller, Hollings and Breaux had stayed (Edwards is a different story). Shelby the Democrat likely would have survived.

No, based on the sample Shelby the Democrat would have probably retired.  Retirement isn't an entirely exogenous phenomenon, Southern Democrats retired en masse in 2004 because the Deep South was lurching very quickly to the GOP during that time.

[The Mikado]

He'd retire in 1998.

It makes no sense for Shelby not to switch, so if for seem reason he doesn't it's probably because he's just going to retire instead of face a potentially challenging reelection.

Republicans won statewide in Alabama after 1998. I see no reason why he would have retired then. He would have scraped out a 1-2 victory in 2004 before retiring or losing by 8 in 2010.

Statewide elections =/= U.S. Senate elections, which are predictably more nationalized and higher-profile.  There's no way Shelby wins in 2004, and he'd face a steep uphill battle in 1998.  

2004 was a great year for the GOP in the Deep South - they picked up 5 Senate seats.  Shelby would be no more lucky.

5 OPEN Senate seats. Those seats wouldn't have gone R in 2004 if Graham, Miller, Hollings and Breaux had stayed (Edwards is a different story). Shelby the Democrat likely would have survived.

No, based on the sample Shelby the Democrat would have probably retired.  Retirement isn't an entirely exogenous phenomenon, Southern Democrats retired en masse in 2004 because the Deep South was lurching very quickly to the GOP during that time.

Yes, this. Shelby wouldn't have run again in 2004. This would be in the aftermath of him probably voting for the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts and for the Invasion of Iraq, and probably for Clinton's Impeachment in 1999, so he would probably be feeling increasingly awkward in the Democratic caucus, anyway, and like I said earlier, he'd see people like Breaux leaving in 2004 or Hollings leaving in 2002 and know that it's time to get out.

[Indy Texas]

1998 is the last election I could say with reasonable certainty that he would get reelected.

2004 would probably depend on the quality of the GOP candidate. And my guess is that by that point, Shelby would be voting with the GOP most of the time anyway.

If he did win in 2004, my guess is he declines to endorse Obama in 2008 and avoids the DNC, and then retires in 2010.

In which case, today he's probably living in Northern Virginia and working as a lobbyist at Squire Patton Boggs.

[junior chįmp]

He could of sill won by reminding the voters of his voting record which includes his votes for interesting policy objectives which contributes to the well being of Mississippians and engaging in a campaign across the state going from county to county on a tractor giving speeches from his 10 watt amp standing on milk crate of local manufacturers

[MT Treasurer]

He could of sill won by reminding the voters of his voting record which includes his votes for interesting policy objectives which contributes to the well being of Mississippians and engaging in a campaign across the state going from county to county on a tractor giving speeches from his 10 watt amp standing on milk crate of local manufacturers

*Alabamians, but yeah, he survives 2004 if he does enough retail politicking. Unfortunately for Democrats, Doug Jones doesn’t have as much time for his retail campaigning, so only a retail politics blitzkrieg can move the race from Lean/Likely R to Tossup.