2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

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No, Safe R.

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No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

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No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Senators Moore and Morrissey can attest to the accuracy of relying solely on a state’s partisan lean and Trump approval for every race.

Neither of those are remotely good comparisons, by the way. Neither Bredesen or Laxalt were going up against an incumbent as absurdly unpopular as Bevin, and neither were in a state with a strong history of voting Democrat for governor/statewide office that has mostly defied its overall strong R trend like Kentucky has. They also were not off-year elections, where whichever party is more motivated to turn out has the advantage, because there is no downballot effect among people turning out primarily for other races.

Moore and Morrissey are actually more appropriate comprisons, because Bevin is unironically about as toxic as Moore in Kentucky and both 2017 and 2019 are off-years, and Beshear is comparable to Manchin in his popularity among ancestral Appalachian Democrats in defiance of the state’s love for Trump and strong GOP trend.

Neither of those are good comparisons, since Bevin hasn't touched underage girls, nor is he running against an incumbent who's extremely popular and had very strong ties to the state for decades. And even so, Jones and Manchin just barely won, even with everything going their way. Unpopular governors have won reelection in states less favorable to their party, so I see no reason to believe Bevin is headed for defeat.

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Adkins leads by 5 votes so far, lol.

Edit: Now 68. Still almost nothing in.

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Beshear will probably pull ahead once we get Louisville and more of Lexington. It could be close, though.

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Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R. Anyway, Beshear will probably have this once Jefferson comes in. There just isn't enough left in Eastern Kentucky for Adkins to hold his lead.

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Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

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Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear about that.

Anyway, if we factor in the Fayette numbers, Adkins is actually up by about 9K by now, right? This could actually be very close. It'll depend on whether the remaining Jefferson numbers are as favorable for Beshear as the initial results.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.

Yeah, I should've been more clear about that.

Anyway, it's much closer now that we have Fayette and some of Jefferson. If the current Jefferson numbers are representative, Beshear probably pulls it out, but if Adkins does better in the remaining precincts, he might actually pull this off.

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Adkins is down to a 1.7% lead, with about a third of Jefferson in. Unless he can do better in the remaining precincts there, this is probably over.

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Yeah, time for a Wulfric projection. Just about all of Eastern Kentucky is in, and there's more than half of Jefferson left.

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Beshear probably wins by about 6% when all is said and done.

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I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.

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I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

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I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

LOL, you do realize that's a line I use ironically, right? Anyway, many things will be working against Beshear, but the word "socialism" isn't going to be one of them.

Sorry for stealing your line.

It's fine if you use the line, just know that it's kind of supposed to be a joke...

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If Beshear is still ahead comfortably in October, I'll definitely believe that Bevin is in deep trouble. Until then, though, this is one reason why I'm hesitant to believe KY polling.

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Yeah, a 5-point lead is bad news for Beshear. It's down from his previous lead, and KY polls are about as reliable as NV polls. Likely R.

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Bevin doing everything he can to lose

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Bevin-says-primary-challenger-Rep-Robert-Goforth-is-a-name-so-easily-forgotten-557894411.html

Here's a longer article on the rift between Bevin and Goforth along with the contrast of Beshear and Rocky being BFFs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-governors-remark-stirs-spat-174531198.html

This dude is lucky to run in a such red state

Yeah, Bevin would be gone in a swing state, but in a state like Kentucky, he can lose a lot of Trump voters and still be fine.

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This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

Unpopular governors winning reelection because the national environment and their state's partisan lean is hardly unprecedented, think Brownback, Raimondo, Blagojevich. However, the national environment isn’t nearly as favorable for Republicans as it was in 2015, so I’m not sure if nationalizing the race or using the Trump playbook will be enough for Bevin. I think the bigger problem for Democrats here is that Beshear is way too liberal for the state on social issues and hasn’t really distanced himself enough from the national party.

Unpopular governors can also win in bad years for their party, if they're running in a favorable state (Malloy, for example.) I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin. If this were only a Republican-leaning state, Bevin would obviously be in big trouble, but I really don't buy him being vulnerable in a state like Kentucky.

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I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

I don't think you even need to leave the rural county unnamed . Also, people will be SHOCKED by his margin in Jefferson, and wonder why the statewide vote didn't swing Beshear's way as much as Jefferson does.

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"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites.

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Here's a thought: If Bevin does win easily, will people claiming that this is a Toss-Up race or that Beshear is going to win because Bevin was unpopular admit that they were wrong? Because as I've said before, I'll happily eat crow if Beshear somehow wins.

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I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

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I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%

Yes, I know you're very fond of that quote. I've admitted several times that I was wrong about that race, but as has been pointed out before...
 
1) Bevin isn't a pedophile (that we know of)
2) This isn't a special election

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There goes Elliott County

Beshear wouldn't have won it anyway.

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Remember how 90% of people on this site said Beshear had a better chance than Jim Hood?

Proud to be a member of the elite 10%.