2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Matty]

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

[Matty]

Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isn’t high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

[Matty]

Here we go....turn out reports that juice the hopes of atlas reds

If turnout is so high in Louisville, why assume it isn’t high elsewhere?

A high turnout Kentucky election favors the GOP

Believe this at your own will.

https://twitter.com/kypoljunkie/status/1191769152744280065?s=20

https://twitter.com/KYPatriot17/status/1191779513199448064?s=20

https://twitter.com/kypoljunkie/status/1191799494813323265?s=20

https://twitter.com/KYPatriot17/status/1191804446570885121?s=20

https://twitter.com/KYPatriot17/status/1191753354537578496?s=20

How would these people know the exact results of absentee votes in all these counties before polls close? For that matter it is highly suspect that the libertarian has gotten 0% from these votes

No idea, should note that it appears the kypoljunkie is a Democrat and the KYPatroit17 is a Republican. They might have inside sources who are leaking informaiton? That's why I said believe this at your own will.

In KY, does early vote skew a certain way compared to Election Day vote?

[Matty]

No reports of vote totals prior to polls being closed are credible, and spreading such reports is irresponsible. In most jurisdictions ballots are not even counted until after polls close, so it is IMPOSSIBLE to know vote totals prior to official results reporting. Having checked the relevant laws and guidelines in Kentucky, it is illegal to count votes prior to polls closing. Anyone purporting to have done so is claiming to have conducted criminal activity and broken the law.

What kind of loser makes up voting numbers?

[Matty]

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes aren’t counted yet?

I’ve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

[Matty]

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

I didn't get that sense reading those tweets.

Then how are they getting the numbers if votes aren’t counted yet?

I’ve been following elections for a while. We always see turnout reports, we always see anecdotes, I have NEVER seen people getting hold of hard results hours before polls close.

Like I said, they either illegally have early results, have modeled results from the campaigns, or are making up numbers.

Wouldn’t it be really risky to try to count votes illegally in front of other people?

[Matty]

You can't just simply assume that every Voter from Louisville & Lexington will vote Democratic. I got a feel Zaybay might get disappointed again tonight like he was in 2018 with the Senate Races.

Also, note that even if turnout is higher in those places, it might not actually be decisive enough of a difference to matter in the end

If GOP turnout in California was high and dem turnout was low in some election, it would likely just mean the margin would be narrower than expected.

[Matty]

65% turnout? No way unless this is some precinct filled with poli sci majors who are very motivated

[Matty]

Bevin is gonna win. The exit polls do show some good signs for Beshear but Bevin will still win.

Exit polls?

[Matty]

If the gop doesn’t do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

[Matty]

Damn, I thought the Louisiana runoff was tonight too. Boo.

It’s not??