MI-08: Mayor of Rochester Hills possibly running

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/jasonba17205509/status/1126935869485670400?s=21

[S019]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

[Xing]

MI-08 will definitely be a vulnerable seat for Democrats. I think Republicans are massively overestimating their chances of taking back MI-11, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MI-08 will definitely be a vulnerable seat for Democrats. I think Republicans are massively overestimating their chances of taking back MI-11, though.

Yeah, but MI-8 starts off Tilt-D (or tossup, for those who use that categorization).  MI-11 starts Lean D, but much closer to Likely D than Tilt D.  Of course, it's possible neither district will even exist in its present form when all is said and done.

[S019]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

POLARIZATION

Trump won MI-08 by 7, and MI-11 by 4.5. If you think the Democrat will win a landslide think that, but what evidence is there that Slotkin and Stevens can substantially outrun the Democratic nominee Both underperformed the national GCB and the GCB in MI

[HarrisonL]

I do still expect MI-08 to flip, I think we will hold MI-11 though. I kind of compare this duo to IL-14 and IL-6 (although IL-6 is a clinton district, and both the Michigan seats aren't) Likewise I think dems will hold MI-11 and IL-6 and lose MI-08 and IL-14

[smoltchanov]

I do still expect MI-08 to flip, I think we will hold MI-11 though. I kind of compare this duo to IL-14 and IL-6 (although IL-6 is a clinton district, and both the Michigan seats aren't) Likewise I think dems will hold MI-11 and IL-6 and lose MI-08 and IL-14

Right now - my thinking too... But - we will see...

[MapModerate]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

POLARIZATION

Trump won MI-08 by 7, and MI-11 by 4.5. If you think the Democrat will win a landslide think that, but what evidence is there that Slotkin and Stevens can substantially outrun the Democratic nominee Both underperformed the national GCB and the GCB in MI

Do you know what "trending red/trending blue" means? Or "swing voter"? No offense but you seem really new to this whole elections thing.

[S019]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

POLARIZATION

Trump won MI-08 by 7, and MI-11 by 4.5. If you think the Democrat will win a landslide think that, but what evidence is there that Slotkin and Stevens can substantially outrun the Democratic nominee Both underperformed the national GCB and the GCB in MI

Do you know what "trending red/trending blue" means? Or "swing voter"? No offense but you seem really new to this whole elections thing.

Oh, welcome to the forum

This is a very reasonable prediction here, for example, after the WI Supreme Court race people were declaring WI, Safe R. Some people still think that IA, OH, and VA are tossups. The amount of people insisting that the Northam scandals would hurt the Dems in VA, was ridiculous. Also NV is considered an ultra pure tossup on this site. I never said the GOP could hang on to those seats (probably gone in the next GOP President midterm). But sometimes seats do flip back in the direction opposite of which, they are trending (ME-02, IA-01 in 2018, almost certainly SC-01 and OK-05, next year. I also doubt that MI-11 will vote to the left of MI in 2020, 2024 or 2028, seems plausible. People on this site, overestimate how longs trends take, for example people insist that GA could be a tipping point in 2020, 2024 seems much more plausible.

[Suburbia]

Bishop, Rogers, or Barnett would win.

MI-08 is Lean R. Pickup.

[lfromnj]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

POLARIZATION

Trump won MI-08 by 7, and MI-11 by 4.5. If you think the Democrat will win a landslide think that, but what evidence is there that Slotkin and Stevens can substantially outrun the Democratic nominee Both underperformed the national GCB and the GCB in MI

Do you know what "trending red/trending blue" means? Or "swing voter"? No offense but you seem really new to this whole elections thing.

Mi 11th trended blue in 2016 but Im pretty sure Mi 8th trended R.

[beesley]

https://.twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1153331090431664130?p=v

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Coattails from Trump and the Senate nominee, should be enough to drag down both Slotkin and Stevens, I say we need a C-lister in MI-08 and a B-lister in MI-11

You wish

POLARIZATION

Trump won MI-08 by 7, and MI-11 by 4.5. If you think the Democrat will win a landslide think that, but what evidence is there that Slotkin and Stevens can substantially outrun the Democratic nominee Both underperformed the national GCB and the GCB in MI

You realize your savior John James actually lost this seat, right? Even Mitt Romney managed to win it despite being embarrassed statewide