Poll of battleground states
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Author Topic: Poll of battleground states  (Read 2731 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: May 11, 2019, 08:41:03 AM »
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2019, 08:41:57 AM »
If Trump wins WI by 4, then Biden is in big trouble
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2019, 08:42:46 AM »

WI numbers are probably a bit optimistic but numbers in PA and MI seem very plausible
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Politician
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2019, 08:43:20 AM »
Trump's approval is only 5 points better in rural areas than in suburbs? (Even with TX included) Wow.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2019, 08:46:04 AM »
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/gop-poll-reassuring-for-trump-in-key-states-but-offers-warning-about-michigan

Here is the link
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2019, 08:49:56 AM »
It’s an internal

We don’t even have a link to the poll

————-> Trash Bin
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2019, 08:51:32 AM »
Quote from: Unbeatable Titan Joe Biden on May 11, 2019, 08:43:20 AM
Trump's approval is only 5 points better in rural areas than in suburbs? (Even with TX included) Wow.

I guess that the margin of error for subcategories is relatively large.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2019, 08:54:07 AM »
Quote from: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on May 11, 2019, 08:49:56 AM
It’s an internal

We don’t even have a link to the poll

————-> Trash Bin

WPA is a good pollster.
It’s not really a internal poll as the poll has not been commissioned by any campaign
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2019, 08:56:06 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2019, 09:39:35 AM by President Johnson »
x Doubt.

If these numbers are accurate and it would be a week from the election, Trump would easily win again with the same map as in 2016 minus Michigan plus maybe New Hampshire.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2019, 09:04:30 AM »
Internal Republican Poll of battleground states
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2019, 09:09:20 AM »
It’s clear that the biggest problem for Trump is likely Michigan.
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redjohn
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2019, 09:09:24 AM »
Probably biased for Republicans, but even with that bias, it should be clear that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are essentially tossups. Texas and Iowa are leaning Republican, and I don't think anyone will know what will happen in Florida until polls close on election day.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2019, 09:13:54 AM »
Quote from: redjohn on May 11, 2019, 09:09:24 AM
Probably biased for Republicans, but even with that bias, it should be clear that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are essentially tossups. Texas and Iowa are leaning Republican, and I don't think anyone will know what will happen in Florida until polls close on election day.

WPA is a fairly reliable pollster even if they are usually working for conservative candidates (anyway they are far more trustable than PPP or McLaughlin)
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andjey
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2019, 09:20:26 AM »
Quote from: Comrade Funk on May 11, 2019, 09:04:30 AM
Internal Republican Poll of battleground states
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Yang2020
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2019, 10:55:42 AM »
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
















No
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2019, 11:12:47 AM »
I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.
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DaWN
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2019, 11:20:19 AM »
Only on this forum would you find people trying to meticulously analyse a crappy internal poll a year and a half before the election
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2019, 11:22:29 AM »
Quote from: Yang2020 on May 11, 2019, 10:55:42 AM
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Because ? Do you really believe that Biden will win Texas and will carry PA by double digits ?








No
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2019, 01:14:49 PM »
Trump isn't leading by 4 points to Biden in WI, but Tammy Baldwin should be considered as a top Veep pick
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2019, 01:19:10 PM »
It takes meticulous analysis to determine that a poll is cr@ppy. "Internal" polls might have value for ruling out certain thing; thus an internal Democratic poll of West Virginia that says that Trump has a 58% approval rating (which is slightly lower than most polls of West Virginia) is likely valid. Such might be enough to tell Democrats not to invest much effort in West Virginia.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2019, 01:21:51 PM »
Let's wait until we see a PPP poll in WI, that will show the validity of how accurate the one in WI is. But, WI, will be a nailbiter.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2019, 03:23:02 PM »
Quote from: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on May 11, 2019, 11:12:47 AM
I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.
Why? If anything, he is the only one who could keep the margins similar.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2019, 04:27:33 PM »
Quote from: politicalmasta73 on May 11, 2019, 03:23:02 PM
Quote from: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on May 11, 2019, 11:12:47 AM
I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.
Why? If anything, he is the only one who could keep the margins similar.

Wisconsin tends to vote for more progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans. If Biden is a “good fit” for Michigan and Pennsylvania, then he’s not a particularly good fit for Wisconsin. Someone like Sanders would do relatively better in Wisconsin.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2019, 05:14:02 PM »
Quote from: TX more competitive than OH on May 11, 2019, 02:42:45 PM
All I know is that someone or all are gonna have egg on their face. There’s no way Biden is losing WI by 4 while winning Texas by 1 and AZ by 5

Trump is winning Texas by 7 points in this poll
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Sestak
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2019, 05:20:46 PM »
Quote from: DaWN on May 11, 2019, 11:20:19 AM
Only on this forum would you find people trying to meticulously analyse a crappy internal poll a year and a half before the election
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