Governor elected in 2018 likely to lose in 2022

[LoneStarDem]

Which one of the Dem Governor's do you see going down in 2022 ?

[Skunk]

Definitely Evers. Followed by Whitmer then Sisolak.

[Politician]

Evers probably needs 2022 to be a Trump midterm in order to win reelection. Agree with the consensus here (Evers>Whitmer>Sisolak).

Just curious, what would your 2022 gubernatorial map look like?

[QAnonKelly]

Yo where's that dickhead Kemp?

[Senator Incitatus]

Yo where's that dickhead Kemp?

391 West Paces Ferry Road NW, Atlanta, GA

[Xing]

I wouldn't say Evers is done in a Democratic midterm, but he'd be the most vulnerable of the three, assuming Whitmer remains at least moderately popular. I could see Kelly having a harder time than Evers, though, depending on her approval rating.

[Bojack Horseman]

Whitmer should be fine. She won’t win re-election in a Blanchard 1986 landslide, but she’ll likely gain support by 2022. My prediction that she succeeds Debbie Stabenow in 2024 still stands though.

[MT Treasurer]

Evers probably needs 2022 to be a Trump midterm in order to win reelection. Agree with the consensus here (Evers>Whitmer>Sisolak).

Just curious, what would your 2022 gubernatorial map look like?

Democratic president:

Trump midterm:

This is assuming that Baker doesn’t run again in 2022 and Reynolds runs for Senate. VT and NH are contingent on 2020 results.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Evers probably needs 2022 to be a Trump midterm in order to win reelection. Agree with the consensus here (Evers>Whitmer>Sisolak).

Just curious, what would your 2022 gubernatorial map look like?

Democratic president:

Trump midterm:

This is assuming that Baker doesn’t run again in 2022 and Reynolds runs for Senate. VT and NH are contingent on 2020 results.

Surprised by what you put for Iowa tbh

[LoneStarDem]

IndyRep, how on Earth are Idaho, Nebraska, and Oklahoma only "Likely" R in a Trump midterm, South Dakota and South Carolina are only Lean R, Colorado and Connecticut (unpooular Dem governors) Safe D even in a Democrat midterm, and Rhode Island and Maine tossups in a Democrat midterm lol. You predicted Rhode Island and Maine were tossups Republicans had a great chance of winning while Connecticut was Safe D and unwinnable for them and yet Rhode Island was a Democratic blowout, Maine comfortably went D, but Connecticut only barely so.

Polis got unpopular up there in CO quickly ?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tony Evers and Brian Kemp.

Yo where's that dickhead Kemp?

Let them continue to underestimate us. I fully expect 2022 to be the equivalent of the shockwave that ran through Georgia when Perdue ended a century of Democratic control at the Capitol. It's going to be amazing.

[MT Treasurer]

@Politician: Uh, is there any evidence whatsoever that Polis and Lamont are unpopular? I get that I’m arguing with someone who thinks the 2012 map can easily be replicated by the Democratic nominee in 2020, but I’m reserving the "safe" category for races where there’s no feasible path for the opposition party barring some unforeseen/unpredictable dead girl/live boy circumstances. And yeah, that includes CT, which I guess to me is what KY is to xingkerui, IceSpear, and Mizzouian, since I really don’t buy that Lamont could actually lose. Sure, he underperformed in 2018, but that doesn’t mean that 2022 will be a lot easier for Republicans now that Lamont is the incumbent and their bench has been decimated. CT and CO withstood GOP waves in 2010 and 2014, there’s no reason to believe that 2022 would be any different with a Democrat in the White House. RI and ME are more winnable for Republicans for a variety of reasons (RI will be an open seat, ME is a perpetually competitive state that’s trending Republican, Mills doesn’t strike me as someone who can generate a lot of crossover appeal, RI is a tough state for Republicans to win but its demographics arguably make it more winnable than CT, etc), but you’re right that Raimondo’s landslide win was a bad sign for the RI GOP, and you could certainly make a case for rating it Lean D as well. Republicans are favored in ID, NE, and OK, but the right Democrat could at least make those states competitive in a KS-type situation. SD should be obvious as Noem underperformed badly in 2018, and SC has a high Democratic floor and appears to be trending Democratic a little. McMaster only won by 8 points in 2018 and Haley almost lost her first race in a GOP wave year.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Evers

[President Johnson]

Evers. I think Laura Kelly is more likely to get reelected, let alone Whitmer and Sisolak. Both of them should be fine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers will likely win; however, Sisolak is the most vulnerable, due to GOP dominance in NV gov races. But, all three can win

[LoneStarDem]

Evers will likely win; however, Sisolak is the most vulnerable, due to GOP dominance in NV gov races. But, all three can win

The pressure will be on Whitmer to get those damn roads fixed in MI.

[Lechasseur]

Whitmer should be fine. She won’t win re-election in a Blanchard 1986 landslide, but she’ll likely gain support by 2022. My prediction that she succeeds Debbie Stabenow in 2024 still stands though.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

Evers

[Mr. Smith]

Evers of these, but Lamont is an underrated pick here.

[😥]

WI-NV-MI

[President Johnson]

Evers of these, but Lamont is an underrated pick here.

I've heard he might not seek reelection and he's indicated this a couple of times as far as I remember. But if he runs, he should be fine. If not, Susan Bysiewicz would be a decent successor.

[ElectionsGuy]

We won't know between Evers and Whitmer until 2021, but it's likely one of them out of these three.

[LoneStarDem]

Evers of these, but Lamont is an underrated pick here.

I've heard he might not seek reelection and he's indicated this a couple of times as far as I remember. But if he runs, he should be fine. If not, Susan Bysiewicz would be a decent successor.

Lamont cannot handle the heat in Hartford eh ?

[LoneStarDem]

The worst governor Evers. (pun intended)

I'm assuming he's having a horrible legislative session despite winning 4 consecutive statewide elections ?

[brucejoel99]

Evers >>>>>>>>> Whitmer > Sisolak