NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

[Senator Incitatus]

The interesting thing is that with Murphy and Biden both still in office, it looks like the NJ Assembly could actually flip in 2023.

[Lambsbread]

This was way too close for comfort and this spells even more doom than the results in VA. Not good.

[Nyvin]

Democrats will almost certainly lose their Senate majority next year and most likely won't regain one until 2029 at the earliest.

[DrScholl]

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

[Calthrina950]

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

True (to an extent), but we cannot seriously say that next year will be a favorable midterm for Democrats, given what we've seen. Biden's approval ratings are poor, and undoubtedly were the most significant factor underlying these results.

[MATTROSE94]

Democrats will almost certainly lose their Senate majority next year and most likely won't regain one until 2029 at the earliest.

I am thinking that the Democrats will be shut out of the Senate until 2034 or even 2038 considering how big the Class 1 wipeout will be in 2024.

[CookieDamage]

If Dems can barely win in a D+17 state, Dems are screwed in PA

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1455916716110794752

[Asta]

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

"If taxes are your issue, then we're probably not your state" was sort of taken out of context.

Murphy was explaining to a business group that NJ is a high tax, high value state (which to an extent is true) and that it's not going to be able to compete with state like Florida or Texas. Ciattarelli ads made it seem like Murphy cut off voters' concerns. It was quite disingenuous.

Also, I know the average voter doesn't care about facts, but here is what's interesting.
Property taxes rose 18.6% during Christie's (R) first term but only 6% during Corzine (D) and 4% during Murphy (D).

https://gothamist.com/news/every-four-years-new-jersey-its-property-taxes-stupid

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2013/05/13-05-06-net-property-tax-increase-much-higher-under-christie-than-corzine/

I highly doubt that Ciattarelli will be able to cut property taxes. I wish NJ voters saw that lower property taxes is not an automatic thing just because they elect a Republican.

[LabourJersey]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.

[Senator Incitatus]

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

...

This means less every passing year but your overall point is good.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is so embarrassing, I almost, almost want Murphy to lose at this point. LOL.

[GALeftist]

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

I think the better takeaway is that "it is not written in stone that 2022 is going to be an apocalyptic night for the Democrats." (We also have to remember that Newsom survived with minimal change from 2018.) Anyway, I think the message we should take away is that the Democratic brand is toxic right now, and if the election were held today, Biden would lose by a lot, just like Trump would lose by a lot if the election had been held in 2019 (although he probably still would have carried Louisiana and Kentucky, they just would have been closer than usual). But Trump turned it around by 2020, and there's no reason the same thing can't happen for Democrats by 2022. I won't hold my breath, but that's certainly what they should aim for.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455931481214394375?s=20

[Asta]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.

Diversity is not destiny as has been recited by many pundits and educational divide is not as stark in NJ. Bush turned 16 point loss in 2000 to 7 point loss in 2004 in NJ. It could always happen again with the right timing and environment. Never say never.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455931481214394375?s=20

Holy Jesus if he wins...

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455931481214394375?s=20

Maybe this explains it:

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1455933089629233154?s=21

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I thought that Murphy would win between 3-6. If Jack pulls this off, I'll not only be pleasantly surprised, I'll be ready to actually write a Youngkin/Ciatarelli mini TL

[lfromnj]

JACK IS STOPPING THE STEAL.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think this race though shows that bad national environment cost democrats Virginia more than a bad campaign by Terry . Keep in mind Ciattareli is outperforming Trump even more than Youngkin is

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Torie bringing the old New York vote stealing tactics with him down to Hudson, New Jersey...smh. NOT ON OUR WATCH! You only get one vote down here.

[Matty]

The way elections are conducted in america is an embarrassment, and it 100% is due to our infrastructure not being able to handle early mail voting in a timely fashion.

No other country of similar wealth has issues like this

One particular party is to blame, a party that abuses a system that was NEVER meant for anyone but the sick, the elderly, the disabled, and other exceptions

21 year old college students in great physical shape that can spend hours making tik tok videos can find the time to get to a poll station on Election Day

[Xing]

Unless there's another glitch, the 400-vote lead isn't going to hold, since what's out is in Democratic-leaning counties.

[CookieDamage]

Yeah its embarrassing that voting machines were shut off before a count was made. Really incompetent people running this show