PREDICT... The Margin of Victory in New Jersey in the 2024 Presidential Election

[Biden his time]

Poll runs for 300 days

Recent Presidential election History

2000 election: D+15.84
1,788,850 (56.13%) Gore, 1,284,173 (40.29%) Bush, 114,203 (3.58%) Neither

2004 election: D+6.69
1,911,430 (52.92%) Kerry, 1,670,003 (46.23%) Bush, 30,704 (0.85%) Neither

2008 election: D+15.53
2,215,422 (57.14%) Obama, 1,613,207 (41.61%) McCain, 48,778 (1.25%) Neither

2012 election: D+17.75
2,126,610 (58.25%) Obama, 1,478,749 (40.50%) Romney, 45,781 (1.25%) Neither

2016 election: D+13.99
2,148,278 (54.99%) Clinton, 1,601,933 (41.00%) Trump, 156,512 (4.01%) Neither

2020 election: D+15.89
2,608,400 (57.15%) Biden, 1,883,310 (41.26%) Trump, 72,607 (1.59%) Neither

Demographic Data

2000 Census, Population 8,414,350

94.4% Urban or Suburban
5.6% Rural

24.8% Under the age of 18
13.2% 65 Years or older

66.0% Non-Hispanic White alone
13.3% Hispanic or Latino (any race)
13.0% Non-Hispanic Black alone
5.7% Non-Hispanic Asian alone
2.0% Anything else

76.7% High School Degree or higher
24.9% Bachelor's Degree or higher

2010 Census, Population 8,791,894

94.7% Urban or Suburban
5.3% Rural

23.5% Under the age of 18
13.5% 65 Years or older

59.3% Non-Hispanic White alone
17.7% Hispanic or Latino (any race)
12.8% Non-Hispanic Black alone
8.2% Non-Hispanic Asian alone
2.0% Anything else

88.0% High School Degree or higher
35.4% Bachelor's Degree or higher


Please discuss and elaborate on your predictions if you can.

[Real Texan Politics]

Biden seemed to be like a geographic "favorite son" for the region which likely explains the leftward trend (also leftward trends in suburban New York and Philadelphia). Also remember it was only HRC +14 in 2016, so it can be within 15, but it may be a while before the MOV goes within 10. NJ is titanium borderline likely/safe D in 2024 and in the next few future presidential elections

[Roll Roons]

Biden seemed to be like a geographic "favorite son" for the region which likely explains the leftward trend (also leftward trends in suburban New York and Philadelphia). Also remember it was only HRC +14 in 2016, so it can be within 15, but it may be a while before the MOV goes within 10. NJ is titanium borderline likely/safe D in 2024 and in the next few future presidential elections

The state actually trended Republican in 2020 - one of only three states in the Northeast to do so, along with NY and PA. I think a lot of that was driven by Trump's gains with minorities, even as he lost further ground with white voters. On a very good night, a non-Trump Republican could possibly have a chance of getting it to around D+10, but not closer than that. The most likely outcome is something like D+14 - solidly Democratic, but not nearly as much as CA or MA. Maybe it'll be more competitive by the 2030s.

I wonder if it votes to the right of Colorado.

[Real Texan Politics]

Biden seemed to be like a geographic "favorite son" for the region which likely explains the leftward trend (also leftward trends in suburban New York and Philadelphia). Also remember it was only HRC +14 in 2016, so it can be within 15, but it may be a while before the MOV goes within 10. NJ is titanium borderline likely/safe D in 2024 and in the next few future presidential elections

The state actually trended Republican in 2020 - one of only three states in the Northeast to do so, along with NY and PA. I think a lot of that was driven by Trump's gains with minorities, even as he lost further ground with white voters. On a very good night, a non-Trump Republican could possibly have a chance of getting it to a single-digit margin. But the most likely outcome is something like D+14 - solidly Democratic, but not nearly as much as a state like CA or MA. Maybe it'll be more competitive by the 2030s.

I wonder if it votes to the right of Colorado.

Certainly possible.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

If Rob Portman carpetbaggs to NJ, and Young Kim is the GOP Nominee, maybe Democratic by >35%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrat (Biden or Harris) maintains their margins in the suburbs and increases them to the typical margin in cities leading to a 16.5% margin of victory overall, slightly greater than the average victory for a Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

D+18-19. I think this forum overdoes it on the 'nothing lasts forever in politics' thing (which is of course somewhat of a straw man). Even if coalitions change rather dramatically, the long-term outlook for the GOP is undeniably very bleak in NJ, and closing that ~700K vote gap in a heavily urban/suburban, fairly affluent, college-educated, socially liberal state isn’t happening barring a seismic shift in migration patterns and coalitions. It might have 'trended' R this year, but there are many states in the Northeast that 'trended' D this year that are far more likely to turn into truly competitive states than NJ (e.g. ME, RI, DE).

I maintain that NJ is more likely to remain part of the blue wall for as long as WY will remain reliably in the GOP column than that the state becomes competitive even by the 2030s.

[Devils30]

Ironically the trends have helped the congressional Dems a lot in the state. The more dispersed D+16 map now helped them win districts 5,7,11 compared to the Northeast NJ heavy one Obama had in 2012.

[Frenchrepublican]

NJ is a very static static state, of course there are some internal changes but as whole the state has been roughly 12 points to the left of the country over the past three presidential elections and I doubt it will change.

So my guess is something like that :

Biden vs DeSantis : Biden+14/15
Biden vs Trump : Biden+17
Biden vs Cruz : Biden+18
Biden vs Pence : Biden+16

Harris vs DeSantis : Harris+12/13
Harris vs Trump : Harris+14
Harris vs Cruz : Harris+16
Harris vs Pence : Harris+14

[MarkD]

Due to Trump having convinced a portion of the GOP base that Democrats have "rigged" every election, some of them do not show up, so Biden wins NJ by a slightly bigger margin than in 2020. I'll say 16-18% margin for Biden.

[Roll Roons]

Due to Trump having convinced a portion of the GOP base that Democrats have "rigged" every election, some of them do not show up, so Bigen wins NJ by a slightly bigger margin than in 2020. I'll say 16-18% margin for Biden.

So, you think every state will end up swinging left? Because realistically, the GOP base voters you're referring to are everywhere.

[Suburbia]

D+14

[Asta]

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.

Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

[MarkD]

Due to Trump having convinced a portion of the GOP base that Democrats have "rigged" every election, some of them do not show up, so Bigen wins NJ by a slightly bigger margin than in 2020. I'll say 16-18% margin for Biden.

So, you think every state will end up swinging left? Because realistically, the GOP base voters you're referring to are everywhere.

Yes, or at least the vast majority of states will swing left. Why not predict that will happen? 40 states swung to the left last time, including most of Trump's states, and several of them swung left by margins wider than the national swing. So it's easy for me to imagine that they will swing left again.