NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[republican1993]

80% of the vote in and Tortellini still leads by a point. Still suburban counties where he is heavily favored left to count anywhere from 20% of the vote in Cumberland to 99% of the vote in Salem. He's now leading in Passaic with 60% of the vote in. Anyone else see where Murphy can make it up? Because I don't.

waiting for essex, hudson mainly which will make it go either way

[lfromnj]

Im telling yall the main ad Jack had was just how Murphy gaffed " If you don't like high taxes, we probably aren't your state"

[GALeftist]

I see we're back to our regularly scheduled programming and relitigating the 2016 primary.

Listen, some places, like Buffalo, Seattle, and Minneapolis the left is getting defeated, although frankly none of that is surprising to me. Other places, like FL-20, Cleveland, and Boston, the left is doing well. Likewise, in some places centrist Democrats are doing relatively well, in others they are not. As always, there is not a single story here. Most of these races were highly local and involved complex factors beyond Atlas-brained adherence to one of two camps within the Democratic Party. These cheap dunks taking a few mayoral races and making sweeping extrapolations across the nation are not based in fact.

[Colbert]

Murphy 31513 Cit 9682 VBM in Bergen according to kornacki from the county clerk. That A: Flips the county, B: its probably a indicator of the VBM left uncounted in nearly all normally Dem counties.

There is a reason where Murphy is claiming victory now.

there was 227 929 votes in Bergen in 2017. 219 984 are counted this year. Are you sure those  vbm aren't already counted ?

[Oryxslayer]

Murphy 31513 Cit 9682 VBM in Bergen according to kornacki from the county clerk. That A: Flips the county, B: its probably a indicator of the VBM left uncounted in nearly all normally Dem counties.

There is a reason where Murphy is claiming victory now.

there was 227 929 votes in Bergen in 2017. 219 984 are counted this year. Are you sure those  vbm aren't already counted ?

Their up on DDHQ now.

Reminder: Polarization increases turnout among all parties because everyone senses urgency and fear. This is a proven fact in Electoral Behavior studies, with examinations all reaching the same conclusion- no matter the time frame or county studied.

[Ferguson97]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

[kwabbit]

DDHQ seems somewhat ahead of NYT. It has the Bergen VBM and the Sussex/Salem votes. Ciattarelli still up by 18k votes.  

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ seems somewhat ahead of NYT. It has the Bergen VBM and the Sussex/Salem votes. Ciattarelli still up by 18k votes. 

And they also present decent estimates of votes outstanding. Said votes are almost all in normally blue counties, and almost all are VBM. This is why I keep saying we know what's going to happen, it just will be closer than what was expected and is inline with Biden's poor national approvals.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Can Jack still win?

[DaleCooper]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

There's nothing wrong with them and I'd recommend old and vulnerable people get them, but the boosters are being tied to a never-ending pandemic mitigation policy from the federal government (and many state ones too) and that is rubbing people the wrong way. One of the best things Biden could do to immediately better his image is declare the pandemic over and once again emphasize that the vaccines are available and free for anyone who wants them.

[Spectator]

Dems are going to have a rough 2022 at this rate.

That much has been obvious since Biden won the election.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455757774130860035?s=20

[Calthrina950]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

There's nothing wrong with them and I'd recommend old and vulnerable people get them, but the boosters are being tied to a never-ending pandemic mitigation policy from the federal government (and many state ones too) and that is rubbing people the wrong way. One of the best things Biden could do to immediately better his image is declare the pandemic over and once again emphasize that the vaccines are available and free for anyone who wants them.

I fully agree. The pandemic is what prevented Trump from winning reelection last year, but now, it-or rather the response to it-is a millstone around Biden's neck. I'm still very disappointed with how quickly Biden acquiesced with the CDC's renewed mask guidance, which still shows no signs of changing after over three months. The Administration's coronavirus mitigation policies are inconsistent, and there doesn't seem to be a firm path out. I feel that backlash to coronavirus policies fueled the Republican victories tonight.

[jojoju1998]

I want to see the demographics.

[compucomp]

Im telling yall the main ad Jack had was just how Murphy gaffed " If you don't like high taxes, we probably aren't your state"

I think I must have heard this ad at least 10 times on 98.7 ESPN radio while driving. In an off-year election when Democrats control the government, I agree it's going to be an effective ad. Such arguments didn't do work nearly as well in 2020 when Trump still dominated everything.

[Colbert]

I'm stuck with the huuuge gap between NYT and CNN concerning remain voters in every counties


NYT says 90% of votes are counted in Essex

CNN says... 78 (!!)

[Hammy]

Im telling yall the main ad Jack had was just how Murphy gaffed " If you don't like high taxes, we probably aren't your state"

Incredible, all of the Democrats' horrible messaging skills rolled up into one statement.

I'm stuck with the huuuge gap between NYT and CNN concerning remain voters in every counties


NYT says 90% of votes are counted in Essex

CNN says... 78 (!!)

CNN has tended to lag quite a bit in the last several election cycles. To my knowledge, DDHQ has been the most up to date.

[Big Abraham]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

[NOVA Green]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

[kwabbit]

Turnout has exceeded 2017 numbers. There's more left to count, but it's not at 80% reported. Probably between 90 and 95%. NJ has grown maybe 3% since 2017, and this election has been extremely low-key. Turnout's not hitting 2.7 million or whatever that percentage implies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

[LostFellow]

-snip-

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

Do you have any evidence of this? I don't think people are suggesting indefinite annual covid booster shots, just large scale usage of them for vulnerable populations at this time—as vaccination rates slowly increase over time, covid numbers will finally drop to negligible levels (e.g. less than 100 deaths/day, less than 10 deaths/day, choose a metric). Booster shots would then likely no longer be necessary, or incorporated into the annual flu shot in some lighter dosage.

[Colbert]

Im telling yall the main ad Jack had was just how Murphy gaffed " If you don't like high taxes, we probably aren't your state"

Incredible, all of the Democrats' horrible messaging skills rolled up into one statement.

I'm stuck with the huuuge gap between NYT and CNN concerning remain voters in every counties


NYT says 90% of votes are counted in Essex

CNN says... 78 (!!)

CNN has tended to lag quite a bit in the last several election cycles. To my knowledge, DDHQ has been the most up to date.

maybe, but the numbers here are a trainwreck

[Big Abraham]

-snip-

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

Do you have any evidence of this? I don't think people are suggesting indefinite annual covid booster shots, just large scale usage of them for vulnerable populations at this time—as vaccination rates slowly increase over time, covid numbers will finally drop to negligible levels (e.g. less than 100 deaths/day, less than 10 deaths/day, choose a metric). Booster shots would then likely no longer be necessary, or incorporated into the annual flu shot in some lighter dosage.

Some people are definitely suggesting it, Israel is on its 4th or 5th jab already and the booster is only effective for 6 months.

But here's some evidence that the effectiveness decreases over time

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/booster-shots-and-declining-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-what-to-know

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/covid-booster-shots-data-shows-third-shots-not-appropriate-at-this-time-scientists-conclude.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02532-4

Also the dude who literally developed the mRNA vaccine has said this repeatedly

[CookieDamage]

Pretty sure this isn't the booster shot discussion thread.