NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455747042366705665?s=20

I mostly agree with this take. A national environment that makes VA R+1 probably makes NJ a narrow D win, and that's where we appear heading. So any state specific issues on either side of the coin in our nationalized elections probably are marginal at best.

Yeah, I mean, to this point, look at the 2019 gubernatorial elections. Dems won in Kentucky and Louisiana when they honestly had no business doing so and kept Mississippi close at least in part because the environment was quite good for them. Candidate quality had something to do with it, sure, but parties win in inhospitable terrain when it's an off-off-year and the president is underwater by ten points. It's just what happens.

It's funny you cite those but take totally opposite conclusions from them. Keep in mind that Dems won in KY and LA in 2015 as well (not Gov. in KY's case that year, but other statewide Dems including Beshear for AG, and his dad won in 2011, also not a great environment for Dems), which was not a good environment for Dems at all. Some states, including these, historically have been way more likely to keep state level politics separate from federal politics. New Jersey is another one, actually, as it has only re-elected a Dem for governor once in like 40 years.

[Alben Barkley]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Also as mentioned Murphy himself is pretty damn "progressive" and got an enthusiastic endorsement from Bernie Sanders.

But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

^^^

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

There have been no restrictions in NJ since May. No, the pandemic is not over but that's not Murphy's fault. If people are upset that they see hand sanitizer around and people wearing masks, then that's their own problem and the culture of this country needs a serious change.

I'm mostly talking about last year, actually - particularly one specific incident where Murphy threw his own road map out the window and called off the resumption of indoor dining indefinitely because he had a gut feeling it was too risky. It cost a lot of businesses money they had already invested into reopening, and the anger was deep. He's certainly improved since then, and the state seems to be doing well now, but speaking anecdotally there was absolutely a sense of betrayal during the later months of the initial crisis that hasn't dissipated.

[Duke of York]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

2022 will be a disaster might as well call it now.

[Xing]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Also as mentioned Murphy himself is pretty damn "progressive" and got an enthusiastic endorsement from Bernie Sanders.

But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

Please don’t use “progressive as an umbrella label. There are light years between Sanders and NTK.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Murphy is not an unpopular governor. If he wins, Ciattarelli defeating an incumbent in a D+15 state is a bad omen for the Democrats in 2022.
This isn't a case where it's an open race, the Republican is the incumbent or the governor is very unpopular, everything should be in Murphy's favor.

[Colbert]

gap according to CNN/NYT


10:30___________________+17/+11 000 votes for the gop candidate

10:35___________________+18/+24

10:40___________________+31/+25

10:45___________________+34/+28

10:50___________________+31/+17

10:55___________________+31/+17

11:00___________________+23/+17

11:10___________________+12/+6

11:20___________________+22/+10

[kwabbit]

Burlington and Mercer just dumped, Ciattarelli maintains his lead 13 pts to 10, Mercer goes from Murphy +10 to +15.

[Nyvin]

Murphy is not an unpopular governor. If he wins, Ciattarelli defeating an incumbent in a D+15 state is a bad omen for the Democrats in 2022.
This isn't a case where it's an open race, the Republican is the incumbent or the governor is very unpopular, everything should be in Murphy's favor.

It's a miserable election environment for a party that hold the White House, simple as that.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo.

Boston mayor-elect and Senator Warren acolyte: am I a joke to you?

[Spectator]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo.

Boston mayor-elect and Senator Warren acolyte: am I a joke to you?

Pretty small bright spot for progressives when NJ is a tossup and Seattle is electing Republicans.

[BigSerg]

Who will win?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo.

Boston mayor-elect and Senator Warren acolyte: am I a joke to you?

I feel like Warren, Wu, Porter, and the like are simply on the left wing of mainstream Democrats, and pretty distinct from the likes of India Walton and especially the crazy person in Seattle.

[Oryxslayer]

Murphy 31513 Cit 9682 VBM in Bergen according to kornacki from the county clerk. That A: Flips the county, B: its probably a indicator of the VBM left uncounted in nearly all normally Dem counties.

There is a reason where Murphy is claiming victory now.

[MillennialModerate]

Who will win?

I was pretty sure Murphy for the longest time but beginning to back off that

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Also as mentioned Murphy himself is pretty damn "progressive" and got an enthusiastic endorsement from Bernie Sanders.

But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

Please don’t use “progressive as an umbrella label. There are light years between Sanders and NTK.

Wait did NTK lose?

[Big Abraham]

80% of the vote in and Tortellini still leads by a point. Still suburban counties where he is heavily favored left to count anywhere from 20% of the vote in Cumberland to 99% of the vote in Salem. He's now leading in Passaic with 60% of the vote in. Anyone else see where Murphy can make it up? Because I don't.

[Spectator]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Also as mentioned Murphy himself is pretty damn "progressive" and got an enthusiastic endorsement from Bernie Sanders.

But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

Please don’t use “progressive as an umbrella label. There are light years between Sanders and NTK.

Wait did NTK lose?

Likely and deservedly so.

[kwabbit]

Who will win?

Murphy likely. It remains to be seen what VBM does. GOP does have votes in the hole in Sussex and Salem though.

[Horus]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo.

Boston mayor-elect and Senator Warren acolyte: am I a joke to you?

Pretty small bright spot for progressives when NJ is a tossup and Seattle is electing Republicans.

The other candidate in the Seattle race appears to literally be a crazy person. Basically every stereotype of the abolish the police super SJW heavy pronoun obsessed white lady rolled into one.

[lfromnj]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo. Also as mentioned Murphy himself is pretty damn "progressive" and got an enthusiastic endorsement from Bernie Sanders.

But sure, it's all "the establishment" and I'm sure AOC would win in a landslide if we nominated her or someone like her for president.

Please don’t use “progressive as an umbrella label. There are light years between Sanders and NTK.

Wait did NTK lose?

Looks iffy, currently down  by 18 % but the loon votes are more heavy in the later ballots.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

[BoiseBoy]

Dems are going to have a rough 2022 at this rate.

[Calthrina950]

80% of the vote in and Tortellini still leads by a point. Still suburban counties where he is heavily favored left to count anywhere from 20% of the vote in Cumberland to 99% of the vote in Salem. He's now leading in Passaic with 60% of the vote in. Anyone else see where Murphy can make it up? Because I don't.

I'm not sure of the details, but I still have a feeling that Murphy will narrowly hold on. However, a Ciattarelli victory is very much a possibility at this point, and he's outperforming his polls. It's clear to me that educational issues and coronavirus pandemic policies greatly hurt both Murphy and McAuliffe. And of course, this is a reflection on President Biden.