NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1455741135373144065?s=20

It seems we are doing this again - we already know there is a mislabeled % in Morris for example.

[Horus]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

[emailking]

Annoying how Dems can't put away these races tonight.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to ABC, there are over 500K absentees that are left to be counted.

[compucomp]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

There have been no restrictions in NJ since May. No, the pandemic is not over but that's not Murphy's fault. If people are upset that they see hand sanitizer around and people wearing masks, then that's their own problem and the culture of this country needs a serious change.

[LimoLiberal]

According to ABC, there are over 500K absentees that are left to be counted.

I don't think that's true.

[AGA]

Does anyone know if the WaPo's numbers on percentage reported are accurate? If so it looks like Murphy lost Bergen County.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So what votes are still to be counted and who will they favor?

[compucomp]

Does anyone know if the WaPo's numbers on percentage reported are accurate? If so it looks like Murphy lost Bergen County.

No because Bergen County hasn't counted any absentee ballots yet (per Wasserman and Cohn).

Edit: Cohn just backtracked and said he's not sure because there is conflicting information.

[Roll Roons]

OMG:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1455747753255047174

PRINCETON might have a GOP state senator and two GOP state reps. PRINCETON!!!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455747042366705665?s=20

I mostly agree with this take. A national environment that makes VA R+1 probably makes NJ a narrow D win, and that's where we appear heading. So any state specific issues on either side of the coin in our nationalized elections probably are marginal at best.

[Alben Barkley]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455747042366705665?s=20

I mostly agree with this take. A national environment that makes VA R+1 probably makes NJ a narrow D win, and that's where we appear heading. So any state specific issues on either side of the coin in our nationalized elections probably are marginal at best.

LOL at people still thinking Morris has credibility after 2020.

Also he's wrong. State level elections aren't nearly as correlated with one another as federal races like House and Senate races, let alone presidential elections. The right candidate at the right time with the right message can overcome a bad partisan lean and/or national environment for his/her state. Just ask Governor Beshear.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

OMG:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1455747753255047174

PRINCETON might have a GOP state senator and two GOP state reps. PRINCETON!!!

Eww.  Princeton. 

[Spectator]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

More embarrassing is a Republican winning an election in Seattle.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Jack looks like such a cool guy, I would love to hang out with that dude and learn more about Italian culture from him

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455747042366705665?s=20

I mostly agree with this take. A national environment that makes VA R+1 probably makes NJ a narrow D win, and that's where we appear heading. So any state specific issues on either side of the coin in our nationalized elections probably are marginal at best.

Yeah, I mean, to this point, look at the 2019 gubernatorial elections. Dems won in Kentucky and Louisiana when they honestly had no business doing so and kept Mississippi close at least in part because the environment was quite good for them. Candidate quality had something to do with it, sure, but parties win in inhospitable terrain when it's an off-off-year and the president is underwater by ten points. It's just what happens.

[Colbert]

OMG:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1455747753255047174

PRINCETON might have a GOP state senator and two GOP state reps. PRINCETON!!!

NYT gave 52-48 for the left

[kwabbit]

Ciattarelli's lead is shrinking and Murphy is the favorite, but he has a decent reservoir of votes in Sussex and Salem. Whether Bergen's remaining votes are VBM or not makes a huge difference. If they're in person, it's a race. If they are VBM, Murphy is going to hang on.

[Alben Barkley]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

More embarrassing is a Republican winning an election in Seattle.

Considering her opponent literally wanted to abolish the police entirely, not too surprising.

Once again a massive blow (and what should be a massive wake-up call) to the commies who think Twitter is real life.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tortellini's lead is down to 6K... yeah, so this one is over.

[AGA]

Murphy back in the 90s on PredictIt.

[junior chįmp]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?