NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Ferguson97]

Lmao was this debate audience hand-picked by the Cittarelli campaign?

[Asta]

Nothing too much, but here is the NJ voter breakdown I made during my break from work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13x2UPlkxDa3ILnJIT9Vs1ozAf4AM9SYWiB3eTCvXQz8/edit?usp=sharing

From 2016 to 2020, we lost 78,394 of Independents, gained 463,829 of Democrats and gained 246,011 of Republicans. This was probably spurred by hatred against Trump, as Dems have nearly doubled registration compared to Republicans.

Nonetheless, NJ went from Clinton winning 55-41 in 2016 to only Biden winning 57-41 in 2020. In other words, Dems seem to have to keep registering more and more voters just to keep pace.

From January 2021 to October 2021, NJ lost about 41k of Independents, gained 40k of Democrats and 48k of Republicans, which would be consistent with the notion that Republicans are poised to perform better than in a neutral setting.

Obviously, this isn't going to really do much and Murphy will probably win. But with Republican momentum and a little bit of polling error can mean Ciatarelli can make it pretty close.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

[Asta]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Or it's possible that Dems just slacked on registering this year, I don't think a 7k margin is really noticeable in the grand scheme of things when we're talking "enthusiasm".

Though you're suggestion that Murphy only wins by 4-5 is.... interesting. But seems very unlikely

[Roll Roons]

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.

[wbrocks67]

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.

Guadagno seemed somewhat Moderate though - I remember there were a few people I know who usually vote D but voted for her. Ciatarelli is not coming off that way, however.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.

She ended up running an okay campaign under the circumstances-laser-focusing on property taxes and also likely benefiting from low turnout in that election, which had even lower turnout than the 2013 election. I suppose because elections were foregone conclusions for the party that ultimately won them. If that's the case this time, Ciatarelli can benefit from that too. That I think is the real factor that could make this a weaker victory for Murphy, not so much because Ciatarelli is some sort of electoral titan who is running a stellar campaign.

[LAB-LIB]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

It's going to be a more Republican year, but on the other hand, in 2017, Murphy was seen a rich guy with no substance. NJ was hit hard, but Murphy has been popular throughout the pandemic, though his approvals have dropped from their highs in the spring of 2020. He'll probably underperform Biden's 2020 numbers, but 4-5 points seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

It's going to be a more Republican year, but on the other hand, in 2017, Murphy was seen a rich guy with no substance. NJ was hit hard, but Murphy has been popular throughout the pandemic, though his approvals have dropped from their highs in the spring of 2020. He'll probably underperform Biden's 2020 numbers, but 4-5 points seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

I agree. Murphy was initially tarred as "Corzine 2.0" but in practice that does not seem to be the case, and he is still fairly popular overall.

My prediction is that he'll be re-elected by 11 or 12 points.

[wbrocks67]

NJ mail votes returned:

Dems 202K (64.8%)
Reps 64K (20.4%)
Unaffiliated 45K (14.5%)
Indies 1K (0.4%)

= 312K returned

https://drive.google.com/file/d/118nB_9P_t0Ot4vxVyT6yADG7pnoz2dJu/view

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1451201610458271744

[wbrocks67]

NJ mail votes returned:

Dems 202K (64.8%)
Reps 64K (20.4%)
Unaffiliated 45K (14.5%)
Indies 1K (0.4%)

= 312K returned

https://drive.google.com/file/d/118nB_9P_t0Ot4vxVyT6yADG7pnoz2dJu/view

10/21 update

Dems 220K (64.7%)
Reps 69K (20.2%)
Unaffiliated 50K (14.8%)
Indies 1K (0.3%)

= 339,622 returned

Early in person voting starts Saturday 10/23.

[Lord Admirale]

I'm not surprised with those numbers; Trumplicans are definitely more reluctant to vote by mail now than before.

[Lord Admirale]

Latest Emerson poll has Murphy+4, this is not gonna be a landslide for Murphy at all.

[wbrocks67]

Latest Emerson poll has Murphy+4, this is not gonna be a landslide for Murphy at all.

Didn't realize we should ignore every other recent poll for an Emerson poll.

[Roll Roons]

Latest Emerson poll has Murphy+4, this is not gonna be a landslide for Murphy at all.

Didn't realize we should ignore every other recent poll for an Emerson poll.

There haven't even been that many recent polls. The last one was Stockton in September, which was Murphy +9. This will most likely be a single-digit race.

[Lord Admirale]

Latest Emerson poll has Murphy+4, this is not gonna be a landslide for Murphy at all.

Didn't realize we should ignore every other recent poll for an Emerson poll.

The month-old polls?

[Senator Incitatus]

If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.

Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.

Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.

[Senator Incitatus]

Following the Star-Ledger's back-handed barely-endorsement of Murphy, the largest newspaper in Hudson County (a sister publication to the Star-Ledger also owned by Advance Media) tells voters to abstain:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1451531777529552926

[Mr.Phips]

If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.

Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.

Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.

SD-11 actually had more Dem primary votes than Republican this year, which was not the case in SD-16.  I would bet that Republicans hold SD-16 before they win SD-11.

[Senator Incitatus]

If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.

Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.

Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.

SD-11 actually had more Dem primary votes than Republican this year, which was not the case in SD-16.  I would bet that Republicans hold SD-16 before they win SD-11.

Yes, SD-16 is far more favorable to Republicans than SD-11. That's what I meant by "looking past" that tier of district. Sorry if this was unclear. It goes something like

2, 8
16
-
11
-
-
14, 38

[Devils30]

If the race really is single-digits, and it seems to be, I'm interested in in the down-ballot races, particularly the 16th.

Have to think Democratic chances in the 2nd and 8th were riding on a Murphy landslide (considering they didn't even win them in his first win, an actual landslide). The 16th might still flip D due to trends, but then it's Ciattarelli's own district, so maybe he can hold them off for one more cycle. Looking past that, the 11th is the only other place I can see a seat flipping. The 14th and 38th both ran close to the state in 2017 and though the 14th may be trending slightly R, I don't see enough movement unless Ciattarelli is actually winning the state.

Plus ça change is always the name of the game in New Jersey. You can count the incumbents who have lost this millennia on your hands.

I think the 16th is as good as gone for the GOP. Just is a poor fit for this version of the party and Pappas is way too far to the right for a 60-38 Biden seat.

I am curious if the Rs make more gains in the Latino areas around NYC, even if they do poorly in the suburbs. Ironically this could get Dems a win in 9/12 CD's even if it's like a 11% Murphy win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Following the Star-Ledger's back-handed barely-endorsement of Murphy, the largest newspaper in Hudson County (a sister publication to the Star-Ledger also owned by Advance Media) tells voters to abstain:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1451531777529552926

I'm really curious where on the doll Murphy touched New Jersey newspapers for them to be acting as passive-aggressive they seem to be.

[wbrocks67]

Obama in his speech mentioned Ciatarelli being at a Stop the Steal rally, which I'm surprised Murphy hasn't been hammering home more.