NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[I’m not Stu]

Murphy wins in 2021.

[LabourJersey]

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.

Do you see Ciattarelli winning any position statewide down the line if he does not win in 2021?

He probably doesn't have other options politically, aside from running against Malinowski in 2022 if Kean loses this November. However redistricting might throw a wrench into that plan

[Pollster]

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

So long as Norcross maintains an iron grip on The Philadelphia Inquirer (which he used to own) his influence in South Jersey will not dwindle. The biggest threat to him right now is national trends making the Democratic Party less powerful in South Jersey, though Norcross is of course loyal to no party and will work with Republicans without hesitation (as he did with Christie). Murphy is uniquely able to go up against Norcross because of his personal wealth making him less dependent on big donors, and that's probably the only reason he does.

With regards to JVD, he has been Norcross' footsoldier for his entire career (I personally can't point to a single vote he's ever taken - in the legislature or Congress - that went against Norcross' line) and I highly doubt he undertook his party switch without permission. I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

[slothdem]

I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

[Pollster]

I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

[S019]

I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

Why would Norcross cross sides to endorse a Republican, that probably puts him at odds with Sweeney and his brother, wouldn't putting a primary challenger forth make more sense?

[Pollster]

I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

A Republican from Cape May isn't winning a New Jersey gubernatorial election against a Democratic incumbent.

He's got a great shot in a Biden midterm if the South Jersey machine is behind him.

Why would Norcross cross sides to endorse a Republican, that probably puts him at odds with Sweeney and his brother, wouldn't putting a primary challenger forth make more sense?

Norcross is not a public figure and is only really known to people in political/power circles. He would not make a public endorsement and his support wouldn't generate media coverage. He had no issue backing Christie (who had previously investigated him), LoBiondo, and various assembly GOP for years. As for Sweeney, a Van Drew governorship probably makes his life significantly easier.

[Senator Incitatus]

I wonder how Hirsh Singh would do. A big problem for the NJGOP in places like Somerset is the growing South Asian population and outreach is necessary. Their problems won't end with Trump.

Since I posted this I learned that Hirsh Singh is an insane monomaniac and a terrible candidate.

[Ferguson97]

Pretty much zero chance a Republican is gonna win a statewide race in New Jersey again, unless something dramatic happens.

As for the primary, all of the Democrats I know love Murphy and hate Sweeney so there's zero shot he gets primaried.

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

[slothdem]

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

[Pollster]

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

[hurricanehink]

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

Van Drew is my congressman. I agree with a lot of your sentiment. Van Drew won’t  have to worry worry about giving up his seat to run. His rally with Trump this January drew him a lot of attention to voters/possible donors across the region.

[LabourJersey]

I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

I really do not see Van Drew running against Murphy in 2021; that's an uphill challenge in normal times and I don't see Murphy losing this race. Low turnout doesn't really mean much in New Jersey since turnout tends to be from machine-loyal voters (mostly Democratic but some Republicans in places like Ocean, Monmouth, Sussex Counties) and highly-educated voters (who are trending rapidly towards Democrats). I also don't think Van Drew is that impressive as a vote-getter; he only got 60% in the 2018 Dem primary against a couple of complete nobodies, not to mention dramatically underperformed in the general election against a known racist.

After 2021 it's hard to tell what happens; it's certainly possible a Republican wins the Governorship, but the GOP has by now transformed into a party with very, very little appeal to a state that is diverse, densely populated, relatively affluent and relatively well-educated.

[Pollster]

I really do not see Van Drew running against Murphy in 2021; that's an uphill challenge in normal times and I don't see Murphy losing this race. Low turnout doesn't really mean much in New Jersey since turnout tends to be from machine-loyal voters (mostly Democratic but some Republicans in places like Ocean, Monmouth, Sussex Counties) and highly-educated voters (who are trending rapidly towards Democrats). I also don't think Van Drew is that impressive as a vote-getter; he only got 60% in the 2018 Dem primary against a couple of complete nobodies, not to mention dramatically underperformed in the general election against a known racist.

After 2021 it's hard to tell what happens; it's certainly possible a Republican wins the Governorship, but the GOP has by now transformed into a party with very, very little appeal to a state that is diverse, densely populated, relatively affluent and relatively well-educated.

I've always found the perception that Van Drew underperformed to be misleading. A district that gave Obama only 53% of the vote in 2008 of all years and has trended R since was never going to be a landslide for Dems, even with a shoddy GOP candidate. He won an R+1 seat by 8 points in a D+8 year, so if anything he modestly outperformed the national average. And he did it as Menendez was losing the district by double digits the same night.

Dems haven't re-elected a governor in NJ in 43 years. Polarization will probably change that. GOP will need a candidate who can hold Murphy to single digits in a Biden midterm and has appeal in the state legislative seats that are moving their way. That candidate is Van Drew, who is already getting the anti-Murphy rhetoric ready.

I have no inside knowledge here, I'm simply positing and theorizing. The NJ GOP is rather inept and probably doesn't realize that this is their path back to relevance. I wouldn't be surprised if they nominate a North Jersey suburban moderate and squander away a chance to reclaim some power, FL Dems style.

[Roll Roons]

Downballot, New Jersey is really not as solidly Democratic as people seem to think it is. Guadagno still got 42% despite Christie's approval being in the teens, and the congressional delegation was evenly split as recently as 2016. Last November, Republicans managed to hold all their legislative seats and even make net gains despite Trump's toxicity in the state. And this was after Murphy campaigned for Bramnick and Munoz's opponents in a Clinton +10 district! The NJGOP is in much better shape than their counterparts in many other blue states (CA, NY, OR, MA, VA), and is less likely to nominate a wacko who turns off suburban voters. This race is very much worth watching in a Biden midterm.

[BudgieForce]

Downballot, New Jersey is really not as solidly Democratic as people seem to think it is. Guadagno still got 42% despite Christie's approval being in the teens, and the congressional delegation was evenly split as recently as 2016. Last November, Republicans managed to hold all their legislative seats and even make net gains despite Trump's toxicity in the state. And this was after Murphy campaigned for Bramnick and Munoz's opponents in a Clinton +10 district! The NJGOP is in much better shape than their counterparts in many other blue states (CA, NY, OR, MA), and is less likely to nominate a wacko who turns off suburban voters. This race is very much worth watching in a Biden midterm.

You have a point about the down ballot races, but I struggle to see Murphy in any real danger. In 2009, Corzine had absolutely awful approval ratings, was constantly navigating through self inflicted scandals and the economy was in the toilet yet he still kept it close. NJ has only gotten more democrat friendly since 2009 and Murphy has been alot less controversial. He'll win by double digits in a Biden off year I think. Just my opinion though.

[S019]

NJ could certainly be a close race in a Biden midterm, and yes the NJ GOP is much less prone to nominating crazies compared to its counterparts in CO and VA. Also, I have suspicions that a sizable amount of Democratic suburban voters may still be swing voters in gubernatorial races, especially those places that swung hard against Trump, when compared to Romney. As others have said, taxes is a major statewide issue and that plays into the GOP's hands. Even with Christie's abysmal ratings, Guadagno did better percentage-wise than Trump did in 2016. Also NJ has a long tradition of moderate Republicans (Kean Sr., Wittman, Christie), and someone like Van Drew, Kean Jr., etc. could easily pick up that mantle. There is a reason why a NJ Democratic governor hasn't been re-elected since 1977. I still think Murphy wins in the end, but this race is not Safe D, like the consensus seems to be.

[BudgieForce]

NJ could certainly be a close race in a Biden midterm, and yes the NJ GOP is much less prone to nominating crazies compared to its counterparts in CO and VA. Also, I have suspicions that a sizable amount of Democratic suburban voters may still be swing voters in gubernatorial races, especially those places that swung hard against Trump, when compared to Romney. As others have said, taxes is a major statewide issue and that plays into the GOP's hands. Even with Christie's abysmal ratings, Guadagno did better percentage-wise than Trump did in 2016. Also NJ has a long tradition of moderate Republicans (Kean Sr., Wittman, Christie), and someone like Van Drew, Kean Jr., etc. could easily pick up that mantle. There is a reason why a NJ Democratic governor hasn't been re-elected since 1977. I still think Murphy wins in the end, but this race is not Safe D, like the consensus seems to be.

The consensus is that its safe D is because Murphy has been relatively inoffensive(unlike Corzine and Florio) and he has sky high approval ratings due to his pandemic response.

[pikachu]

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

So long as Norcross maintains an iron grip on The Philadelphia Inquirer (which he used to own) his influence in South Jersey will not dwindle. The biggest threat to him right now is national trends making the Democratic Party less powerful in South Jersey, though Norcross is of course loyal to no party and will work with Republicans without hesitation (as he did with Christie). Murphy is uniquely able to go up against Norcross because of his personal wealth making him less dependent on big donors, and that's probably the only reason he does.

With regards to JVD, he has been Norcross' footsoldier for his entire career (I personally can't point to a single vote he's ever taken - in the legislature or Congress - that went against Norcross' line) and I highly doubt he undertook his party switch without permission. I wouldn't even be surprised if Norcross urged him to switch to position him for a run against Murphy.

Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

Anyway, I think 2017 really weakened Norcross/Sweeney's grip on the party - the fact that Murphy was able to win the nomination by completely going around him allowed a separate center of power to be established in the NJDP and if anything, Murphy has gotten even more anti-Norcross since then. 

[Pollster]

Truly a paper under the iron grip of George Norcross and his organization. And that's not even getting to the JVD party switch coverage last year, which was very critical. Also, it's not like the Inky has that much influence over anything these days...

That is...a very Norcross-inoffensive piece that covers Philadelphia corruption far more than it touches New Jersey. And that is precisely the type of coverage that political bosses all over the country want: not ignoring, but not threatening. He has nothing to gain by the Inquirer going the way of the NY Post.

As for JVD, this rather silly op-ed is the most critical piece on his party switch that I was able to find.

Not sure what that last sentence means, the Inquirer probably has the second-highest influence over South Jersey of any media outlet after Fox News (which probably has a solid plurality in most of the country).

Anyway, I think 2017 really weakened Norcross/Sweeney's grip on the party - the fact that Murphy was able to win the nomination by completely going around him allowed a separate center of power to be established in the NJDP and if anything, Murphy has gotten even more anti-Norcross since then.  

Yes - Murphy was able to do so because he got in the race earlier than anyone would have ever expected and had the money to run a substantive and organized campaign from the get-go.

We need to dispel of this idea that Norcross loses power if he loses the Democratic party. He is a Democrat out of convenience and is just as comfortable with Republicans if they push his interests (most of which are tax and contract related, so easy for Republicans to jive with). He owned LoBiondo and continues to effusively praise Christie to this day. Hell, he is a member of Mar-a-Lago and is already positioning himself on the GOP side of the culture war. Murphy's rise and South Jersey's national trends will only accelerate his gravitation towards the GOP, and JVD's party switch is practically just him getting a head start by putting an ally on the inside.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Murphy is a shoe-in.

[Mr. Matt]

JVD, if he even ran for governor / Norcross's support or not, isn't going to win statewide. All the Dems would have to do is point out that he switched parties to vote against impeachment of Trump. Look how well a similar election worked out for someone in a similar situation (who was a Republican his whole life).

[Roll Roons]

JVD, if he even ran for governor / Norcross's support or not, isn't going to win statewide. All the Dems would have to do is point out that he switched parties to vote against impeachment of Trump. Look how well a similar election worked out for someone in a similar situation (who was a Republican his whole life).

Wow. The Democrat got over 60 in Ocean, Morris and Sussex, over 65 in Monmouth and Hunterdon, and over 70 in Warren. What the actual f**k. 

But to be fair, Nixon was still president in 1973, and Watergate was brewing. People's political memories are short, and they'll care less about Trump if he's out of office.

[LabourJersey]

I want to address the line about Democrats not winning a second gubernatorial term since 1977: it should be noted up until 1988 NJ was viewed as a Lean R state because of the large population of college educated white voters. In the late 80s and 1990s increases in immigration and the early movement of suburbanites to the Democrats made it an Atlas Red state at the national state, but of course state level elections take longer to reflect trends.

But the lack of electoral success for the Democrats is partially coincidence. If McGreevey wasn't so corrupt (and having that affair with the Israeli nat'l security consultant) he would have easily won a second term in 2005. Corzine also probably could have eeked out a second term if Chris Daggett had not run as a third-party, or if he had been plainly a better retail politician (he was *famously* bad at retail politics). And of course the state has moved very, very sharply toward the Democrats since 2009 that it's more of an uphill climb for the Republicans to win.

I do agree with other posters about how the NJ GOP is more competent when it comes to nominating sane candidates than, say the VA GOP, CA GOP, etc. I just think it's becoming a lot harder for the GOP to win the governor's mansion.

[Pollster]

I agree with all saying Murphy is safe for all intents and purposes. My positing on Van Drew is in terms of relative statewide success for the GOP (holding/gaining assembly seats in areas trending their way fast).

I want to address the line about Democrats not winning a second gubernatorial term since 1977: it should be noted up until 1988 NJ was viewed as a Lean R state because of the large population of college educated white voters. In the late 80s and 1990s increases in immigration and the early movement of suburbanites to the Democrats made it an Atlas Red state at the national state, but of course state level elections take longer to reflect trends.

I do agree with other posters about how the NJ GOP is more competent when it comes to nominating sane candidates than, say the VA GOP, CA GOP, etc. I just think it's becoming a lot harder for the GOP to win the governor's mansion.

I'm not sure we can count on the NJ GOP nominating moderates much longer, because of the exact population of college educated white voters you mention. With NJ-05, NJ-07, and NJ-11 moving the way they are towards Dems it's possible if not likely that the northern NYC suburbs are going to make up less of the GOP primary electorate than in previous years. If South Jersey grows as an influence in NJ GOP politics (it will) then the state may start producing more Trump-esque, populist GOP nominees.