2008 without the September 2008 stock market crash

[One Term Floridian]

Dems also gain significantly fewer seats in the House and Senate. Senate seats that were won by narrow margins like Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska probably remain GOP.

[One Term Floridian]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

[One Term Floridian]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

McCain and Obama were neck and neck in the polls before the Crash with McCain even leading many of them

I think with the debates, Obama would have pulled through enough to win the popular vote by at least 3 or 4. Also, McCain was polling decently well in September but was still doing poorly in the months prior to that. I think the poll bump was the initial approval to Palin being on the ticket and the GOP base rallying around him as their nominee.

[One Term Floridian]

Dems also gain significantly fewer seats in the House and Senate. Senate seats that were won by narrow margins like Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska probably remain GOP.

This is what I'm interested in...does Specter still switch and/or does Scott Brown win without Democrats being close to a filibuster-proof majority? Could Republicans have won the majority in 2010? They weren't able to IRL in large part because Democrats just had too much of a cushion (in the Senate) going into 2010. I guess a lot depends on if the financial crisis still happens.

Yeah we can’t really proceed any further. But I’m sure GOP still sweeps both NJ and VA Gov races in 2009. If the crash happens that year or the next, expect a massive GOP takeover in both the House and the Senate. Obama probably also loses re-election to Romney in 2012.