2008 without the September 2008 stock market crash

[darklordoftech]

Everything up until that day in September 2008 goes the same as in real life. The economy on election day is like it was before that day.

[One Term Floridian]

Dems also gain significantly fewer seats in the House and Senate. Senate seats that were won by narrow margins like Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska probably remain GOP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

[One Term Floridian]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

[OSR stands with Israel]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

McCain and Obama were neck and neck in the polls before the Crash with McCain even leading many of them

[One Term Floridian]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

McCain and Obama were neck and neck in the polls before the Crash with McCain even leading many of them

I think with the debates, Obama would have pulled through enough to win the popular vote by at least 3 or 4. Also, McCain was polling decently well in September but was still doing poorly in the months prior to that. I think the poll bump was the initial approval to Palin being on the ticket and the GOP base rallying around him as their nominee.

[morgankingsley]

North Carolina, Nebraska all, and Indiana at least go McCain, anything else is debatable

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Dems also gain significantly fewer seats in the House and Senate. Senate seats that were won by narrow margins like Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska probably remain GOP.

This is what I'm interested in...does Specter still switch and/or does Scott Brown win without Democrats being close to a filibuster-proof majority? Could Republicans have won the majority in 2010? They weren't able to IRL in large part because Democrats just had too much of a cushion (in the Senate) going into 2010. I guess a lot depends on if the financial crisis still happens.

[One Term Floridian]

Dems also gain significantly fewer seats in the House and Senate. Senate seats that were won by narrow margins like Minnesota, Oregon and Alaska probably remain GOP.

This is what I'm interested in...does Specter still switch and/or does Scott Brown win without Democrats being close to a filibuster-proof majority? Could Republicans have won the majority in 2010? They weren't able to IRL in large part because Democrats just had too much of a cushion (in the Senate) going into 2010. I guess a lot depends on if the financial crisis still happens.

Yeah we can’t really proceed any further. But I’m sure GOP still sweeps both NJ and VA Gov races in 2009. If the crash happens that year or the next, expect a massive GOP takeover in both the House and the Senate. Obama probably also loses re-election to Romney in 2012.

[Pericles]

Republicans win all races lost by 5% or less.
2008 presidential election

Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 291 EV 50.36%
John McCain/Sarah Palin-Republican: 247 EV 48.10%

2008 Senate elections
Harry Reid-Democratic: 54+5
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 44-5
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

Alaska: Incumbent Ted Stevens(R) defeats Mark Begich(D)
Minnesota: Incumbent Norm Coleman(R) defeats Al Franken(D)
Oregon: Incumbent Gordon Smith(R) defeats Jeff Merkley(D)

Note Louisiana goes to runoff, probable Landrieu win in runoff(round 1; Landrieu 49.61%, Kennedy 48.22%)

2008 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 242+6 50.7%(-1.6%)
John Boehner-Republican: 193-6 45.1%(+0.8%)
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Jay Love(R) defeats Bobby Bright(D)
Alabama 5: Wayne Parker(R) defeats Parker Griffith(D)
Connecticut 4: Incumbent Chris Shays(R) defeats Jim Himes(D)
Florida 8: Incumbent Ric Keller(R) defeats Alan Grayson(D)
Idaho 1: Incumbent Bill Sali(R) defeats Walt Minnick(D)
Maryland 1: Andy Harris(R) defeats Frank Kratovil(D)
Michigan 7: Incumbent Tim Walberg(R) defeats Mark Schauer(D)
New Jersey 3: Chris Myers(R) defeats John Adler(D)
New York 29: Incumbent Randy Kuhl(R) defeats Eric Massa(D)
Ohio 1: Incumbent Steve Chabot(R) defeats Steven Driehaus(D)
Ohio 15: Steve Stivers(R) defeats Mary Jo Kilroy(D)
Pennsylvania 3: Incumbent Phil English(R) defeats Kathy Dahlkemper(D)
Pennsylvania 11: Lou Barletta(R) defeats incumbent Paul Kanjorski(D)
Virginia 2: Incumbent Thelma Drake(R) defeats Glenn Nye(D)
Virginia 5: Incumbent Virgil Goode(R) defeats Tom Perriello(D)


2008 gubernatorial elections
Brian Schweitzer-Democratic: 28_
Rick Perry-Republican: 22_

North Carolina: Pat McCrory(R) defeats Bev Perdue(D)

[Spark]

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 311 EVs, 52%
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) / Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 227 EVs, 47%

[TrumpBritt24]

[UWS]

Don't think Obama does quite that poorly with W still in the White House and Palin still on the GOP ticket

McCain and Obama were neck and neck in the polls before the Crash with McCain even leading many of them

It was mostly because of the strong convention bounce that McCain got from the 2008 Republican National Convention held in early September.

[Lechasseur]

Republicans win all races lost by 5% or less.
2008 presidential election

Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 291 EV 50.36%
John McCain/Sarah Palin-Republican: 247 EV 48.10%

2008 Senate elections
Harry Reid-Democratic: 54+5
Mitch McConnell-Republican: 44-5
Independent: 2_
100 seats
51 for majority

Alaska: Incumbent Ted Stevens(R) defeats Mark Begich(D)
Minnesota: Incumbent Norm Coleman(R) defeats Al Franken(D)
Oregon: Incumbent Gordon Smith(R) defeats Jeff Merkley(D)

Note Louisiana goes to runoff, probable Landrieu win in runoff(round 1; Landrieu 49.61%, Kennedy 48.22%)

2008 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 242+6 50.7%(-1.6%)
John Boehner-Republican: 193-6 45.1%(+0.8%)
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Jay Love(R) defeats Bobby Bright(D)
Alabama 5: Wayne Parker(R) defeats Parker Griffith(D)
Connecticut 4: Incumbent Chris Shays(R) defeats Jim Himes(D)
Florida 8: Incumbent Ric Keller(R) defeats Alan Grayson(D)
Idaho 1: Incumbent Bill Sali(R) defeats Walt Minnick(D)
Maryland 1: Andy Harris(R) defeats Frank Kratovil(D)
Michigan 7: Incumbent Tim Walberg(R) defeats Mark Schauer(D)
New Jersey 3: Chris Myers(R) defeats John Adler(D)
New York 29: Incumbent Randy Kuhl(R) defeats Eric Massa(D)
Ohio 1: Incumbent Steve Chabot(R) defeats Steven Driehaus(D)
Ohio 15: Steve Stivers(R) defeats Mary Jo Kilroy(D)
Pennsylvania 3: Incumbent Phil English(R) defeats Kathy Dahlkemper(D)
Pennsylvania 11: Lou Barletta(R) defeats incumbent Paul Kanjorski(D)
Virginia 2: Incumbent Thelma Drake(R) defeats Glenn Nye(D)
Virginia 5: Incumbent Virgil Goode(R) defeats Tom Perriello(D)


2008 gubernatorial elections
Brian Schweitzer-Democratic: 28_
Rick Perry-Republican: 22_

North Carolina: Pat McCrory(R) defeats Bev Perdue(D)

Probably this

[Chips]

Barack Obama: 291 electoral votes
John McCain: 247 electoral votes

[dw93]

The Map of our timeline minus Indiana, North Carolina, and NE 2nd.

[NewYorkExpress]

If McCain picks anyone other than Palin, he wins Florida, Virginia and Colorado as well.

[brucejoel99]

Obama still wins but the somewhat smaller margin by which he does so enables the re-election of Ted Stevens & Norm Coleman, thus rendering Obamacare dead-on-arrival:


Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 339 EVs, 52.41%
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK): 46.17%

[Skill and Chance]

Obama/Biden 278 EV 47.5%
McCain/Palin 260 EV 49.0%