The Duel - June 1993 General Election

[Lumine]

Rules: Dice rolls gave Kinnock the "unpopular bonus" (which in the narrative reflects the Labour split over Maastricht), so Labour will lose 3% to the party with the most votes outside themselves. Since the past election was fought less than two years ago several of the manifestos are similar to what they were in 1991, leading some to describe this contest as "the Maastricht election".

The Parties

Labour Party - Prime Minister for the past year and a half, Neil Kinnock has called the election after the rejection of Maastricht to cement his authority and gain another mandate against his Eurosceptic or Bennite critics, both of which has refused to fully support the manifesto. Portraying himself as a responsible progressive leader (and heavily promoting the new minimum wage and the end of the Poll Tax), Kinnock runs on a platform of ratifying Maastricht and potentially supporting a single-currency by the end of the parliament if several key conditions are met, whilst also pledging to support regional devolution, Lords reform, limited re-nationalization and greater social spending after an initial period of recovery from Black Wednesday.

Conservative Party - Following the election of Michael Howard the Tories have decided to swing hard towards Thatcherism and populism, promising to give the electorate a clear choice between the "Euro-crazed, left-wing Labour" and the "common sense Conservatives". Despite pro-Maastricht Conservatives vowing to rebel against Howard, the Conservative leader has taken a hard-line against the treaty and pledged that only by electing a Conservative government will the UK get rid of it. Thus, the Conservative manifesto also calls for an agenda of tax cuts and deregulation, social conservative values, a tough law and order stance, and greater regulation of immigration.

Social and Liberal Democrats - Having successfully survived what many thought would be a tough election, SLD leader Paddy Ashdown was the sole opposition leader to back Kinnock on Maastricht "on the basis of principle", arguing ratification of the treaty mattered more than political games. Dismissing the Conservatives as Eurosceptic and Labour as unreliable on the issue, Ashdown has tried to cast the SLD as the most pro-European party, pledging that an SLD government would pursue a referendum to give the people a vote on Maastricht. Moving further into the center-left and ruling out deals with Howard, the SLD continues to stand for greater social spending, ambitious political reform, social liberalism

Green Party - Due to a strong parliamentary performance Green leader Sara Parkin has overcome internal resistance to consolidate her leadership role and lead the Green Party into attempting a major assault on the two-party system. Taking on a hard-line against Maastricht and Kinnock, Parkin has repeatedly attacked the Prime Minister as betraying working-class Britons through free-trade and support for a single currency, and called center-left and left-wing voters to unite behind the Greens to sink Maastricht for good. As in 1991, the Greens continue to support environmentalism, a basic income scheme, pacifism and nuclear disarmament, protectionism, and political reform.

Social Democratic Party - Signing a limited pact with the Greens not to compete in some key seats, David Owen prepares for another campaign with the call to reject Maastricht as his rallying cry. Moving the SDP into an increasingly reformist, semi-populist and anti-Maastricht, anti-Single Currency line, Owen has denounced Labour and the Conservatives as hopelessly divided and cast himself as an elder statesman capable off steering Britain away from European integration and into economic and social prosperity, retaining the party's support for political reform, the nuclear deterrent, a social-market economy and adding renewed calls for Labour Eurosceptics to join the SDP.

Scottish National Party - After ousting Salmond due to a disastrous performance in 1991, the SNP has swung away from the radical wing into the one supporting a gradual approach to independence. Under the new leadership of the approachable and experienced Margaret Ewing, the SNP supports ratification of Maastricht and a generally pro-Europe line, whilst fiercely demanding significant opt-outs for Scotland to protect areas such as the fishing industry. Additionally and whilst the party continues to support nuclear disarmament and increased social-spending, Ewing has expressed a willingness to work and negotiate with other parties, as well as supporting devolution for Scotland.

Two days.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tories

[S019]

Conservative Party

[America Needs R'hllor]

Big dilemma between Labour and the SLD this time. I'll go.. with the SLD.

[Intell]

SDP.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Strategic Tory vote to get Labour out. Hoping to see a strong performance from the Greens though.

[Lechasseur]

Conservative Party

[thumb21]

SDP

[MAINEiac4434]

With Kinnock, now and forever.

[DaWN]

Probably Labour in the end, but I would happily tactically vote for the SLD if it means keeping the Tories out in a seat where that's a possibility

[Blair]

sounds like a dream Labour policy platform! Kinnock all the way.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

hoping for a Tory/SDP government

[F. Joe Haydn]

Labour

[Lumine]

Current result, when factoring in the +3 bonus to the Conservatives from Labour:

CON: 283 (+101)
LAB: 275 (-105)
SDP: 28 (+24)
GRN: 17 (-8)
SLP: 16 (-17)
SNP: 9 (+7)
OTH: 6 (+2)
NI: 17

[Lumine]

June 1993 General Election:

LAB: 30.1% (281 MP's)
CON: 29.7% (273 MP's)
SDP: 13.1% (31 MP's)
SLD: 10.8% (20 MP's)
GRN: 10.8% (14 MP's)
SNP: 1.5% (9 MP's)
OTH: 4.0% (23 MP's)

His government divided after the forceful push for ratification of the Maastricht Treaty and having lost what was declared to be a vote of confidence following a critical cabinet and backbench rebellion, Neil Kinnock went to the polls for a snap election only 20 months after his 1991 victory.

Whilst Kinnock was successful later in the campaign in placing focus on other issues, the June 1993 General Election was widely known to be the “Maastricht Election”, fought mainly on the issue of Europe and its newfound relevance in the British political debate. With his party divided and the Eurosceptics in open revolt Kinnock started the campaign low in the polls as analysts predicted doom, Sara Parkin’s Green Party looking a credible and threatening challenger from the left that overenthusiastic pundits placed well above 100 seats following initial polling showing the Greens rising above 20%. With Parkin and also Ashdown looking on the rise and the lines drawn on anti-Maastricht or pro-Maastricht parties, a brief but action-filled campaign of four weeks took place.

Alas, Ashdown’s public image was derailed when The Sun broke out the news of his past affair with his secretary, the SLD leader’s response seen as poor, unconvincing and even overtly emotional. And while Sara Parkin evaded any of the personal issues which damaged Ashdown the Green Party’s efforts showed fatigue almost immediately by what seemed like a lack of professionalism in the party, many of its radical members very resentful of Parkin. And when David Icke – easily the second most popular and well-known Green MP – suddenly interrupted campaigning to declare himself the Son of God and predict the Apocalypse on 1998 the Green Party was reduced into a desperate fight by Parkin to prevent a collapse.

Crippled after the 1991 disaster, it was to the credit of Michael Howard that the Conservatives successfully reorganized into an effective fighting force despite the hostility of pro-Europe Conservatives. Helped by the anti-Maastricht mood Howard fought an effective campaign that allowed him to capitalize on the subsequent woes of the SLD and the Greens, whilst still being hampered enough the apparent distrust of the public on his hard-line policies (as well as the fallout of Thatcher/Gilmour) and, decisively, by SDP. Predicted to be on the way out of politics, David Owen’s rallying cry against Maastricht re-energized his party by giving it a new and devoted base of activists, and his high profile and experienced allowed him to look more “Prime-ministerial” than the controversial Howard and the exhausted Kinnock.

Kinnock, initially appearing to be doomed due to internal Labour strife, surprised pundits by leading a re-energized and focused campaign during the last two weeks, promoting his domestic accomplishments as a way to maintain a semblance of unity and succeeding in preventing a Gilmour-like collapse in the polls. During Election Night Kinnock’s majority was blown to bits by the surge in Conservative vote and a harsh Labour collapse in Scotland – to the benefit of the SNP and SDP -, but the Prime Minister narrowly emerged ahead in seats and votes in a hung parliament. The Greens and the Democrats were pushed back and punished by the electorate, and to the shock of many David Owen seemingly revived his political career by vaulting into third place and achieving his long away breakthrough for the SDP.

Still, with a hopelessly divided Parliament it remained unclear who would become the next Prime Minister.