Rate NM-Sen and VA-Sen (Spring 2019)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 04, 2024, 10:30:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Rate NM-Sen and VA-Sen (Spring 2019)		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Rate New Mexico and Virginia's 2020 Senate races
#1
NM: Safe R		  
#2
NM: Likely R		  
#3
NM: Lean R		  
#4
NM: Tilt R		  
#5
NM: Tilt D		  
#6
NM: Lean D		  
#7
NM: Likely D		  
#8
NM: Safe D		  
#9
VA: Safe R		  
#10
VA: Likely R		  
#11
VA: Lean R		  
#12
VA: Tilt R		  
#13
VA: Tilt D		  
#14
VA: Lean D		  
#15
VA: Likely D		  
#16
VA: Safe D		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 80

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Rate NM-Sen and VA-Sen (Spring 2019)  (Read 1915 times)
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,946
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 01, 2019, 05:37:41 PM »
Rate the 2020 Senate elections in New Mexico and Virginia. The poll closes in June, so it will be a snapshot into what Atlas thought in Spring 2019.

Previous polls: AL, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS/KY, ME, MI, MN, MS/MT, NH

Map so far:
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,047
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2019, 05:48:31 PM »
Both are Safe D. Let's not pretend that anything else is the case here.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2019, 06:18:17 PM »
Both states are Safe D due to the Republicans' severe bench problems.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,334
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2019, 07:25:16 PM »
NM: Very Likely D

VA: Safe D
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2019, 08:07:33 PM »
both Likely D
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,946
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2019, 08:17:41 PM »
VA is Safe D.

I'm gonna go with Likely D for NM, though it's much closer to Safe D than Lean D. Lujan looks like a strong recruit, but I'm reluctant to totally rule out a Republican pickup in an open seat that Clinton won by 8 points. If KS and MT are Likely R, then I think NM should be Likely D.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2019, 08:22:27 PM »

Pretty much this.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2019, 09:24:39 PM »
Both are Safe D, fool's gold for Republicans.
Logged
here2view
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,688
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.13, S: -1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2019, 10:35:44 PM »
Anyone who voted likely for either needs to have his/her head checked.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,504
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2019, 01:23:59 AM »
Both are Safe D
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2019, 01:42:34 AM »
Atlas: New Mexico and Virginia are Safe D no matter what!
Also Atlas: Montana and Kansas are Lean/Likely R with the right candidate!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,874
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2019, 06:48:37 AM »
Solid D
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2019, 10:34:59 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 02, 2019, 01:42:34 AM
Atlas: New Mexico and Virginia are Safe D no matter what!
Also Atlas: Montana and Kansas are Lean/Likely R with the right candidate!

Yes? Red states are (unfortunately) far more likely to elect a Senator from the other party than blue/Democratic states. There are literally zero blue state Republican Senators right now, whereas you have people like Tester, Manchin, Jones, Brown, and dozens of other very competitive Democrats like Bayh, Bredesen, Kander, et al. in Republican states. PVI is a useless metric when determining the competitiveness of Senate races in red states.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2019, 06:48:29 PM »
Safe D
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,635
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2019, 07:03:11 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 02, 2019, 01:42:34 AM
Atlas: New Mexico and Virginia are Safe D no matter what!
Also Atlas: Montana and Kansas are Lean/Likely R with the right candidate!
TIL New Mexico/Virginia have Republican Governors
Logged
skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2019, 07:13:19 PM »
Virginia is Safe D. The GOP didn't even beat Warner in an ultra-Republican wave year where he was sleeping at the wheel and didn't have much of anything resembling a strong campaign, and Trump combined with the VA GOP's general incompetence has only accelerated the NoVA/Chesterfield/Henrico trends since then. Maybe it won't be quite as bad as Kaine/Stewart, but the margin will be big enough for it not to matter.

New Mexico is practically Safe D for all intents and purposes. For a Republican to win in New Mexico, you need either stupidly-low, GOP-biased turnout (lol at that happening in a presidential year) or Bush-in-2004-level support among Latinos (lol at that happening with Donald Trump at the top of the ballot).

The only Dem-held, competitive 2020 races in these states will be VA-2, VA-7, and NM-2.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2019, 04:29:54 AM »
NM : Likely D if R don't field a candidate and let Johnson run unopposed against the D candidate. Otherwise Safe D.

VA : Safe D. Warner wins 55/43
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,666
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2019, 11:04:58 PM »
Both Safe D.

Warner and Kaine are Senate lifers.

Logged
PAK Man
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 752


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2019, 08:14:45 AM »
New Mexico is Safe D. The state has virtually no Republican bench to speak of.

Virginia is Likely D, only for the fact that Warner got caught sleeping last cycle and almost lost a race that wasn't supposed to be competitive. He should be fine but his near-loss is inexcusable.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,619
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2019, 09:29:51 PM »
Safe D is the only answer (sane).
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2019, 09:39:00 PM »
There are no probable scenarios where either of these races are anything other than Safe D with Trump at the top of the ballot. Democrats will win both by double digits.
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,122


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2019, 06:41:54 AM »
Both are Lean D.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2019, 07:57:15 AM »

No, they are not. VA is unwinnable for us under normal circunstances, NM is gone too
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,619
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2019, 08:19:32 AM »

Epic lol
Logged
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,122


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2019, 08:39:42 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on May 05, 2019, 07:57:15 AM

No, they are not. VA is unwinnable for us under normal circunstances, NM is gone too
Not if Trump appeals to the NOVA elites, and that is a possibility if the democratic nominee gets pushed to the far-left on some issues. If this scenario were to happen, the map could looks something like this:

And this too:
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 14 queries.