Biden's ceiling in IA (general election)

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

What's Biden's ceiling in IA against Trump?

[MT Treasurer]

46-47%, and that’s if he’s winning the presidency by a very convincing margin, both in the PV and the EC. He’s not winning the state in the GE, period.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say 48%, but his floor could be as low as 36%.

[Gass3268]

There is no reason he couldn't get the 51% that Rob Sand got in the State Auditor race if everything goes right.

[Tintrlvr]

Clearly higher than 50%. Iowa is very elastic, and the ceiling for all of the Democratic candidates (except maybe really fringe-y ones like Gabbard, though her isolationist stances might be favorable in Iowa) is in the mid-50s. Doesn't mean any of them will/would get there or especially close, but it's frankly ridiculous to assert that Democratic candidates couldn't possibly reach Obama 2008 levels in Iowa.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

55%, but he'll probably get more like ~45%

[lfromnj]

Clearly higher than 50%. Iowa is very elastic, and the ceiling for all of the Democratic candidates (except maybe really fringe-y ones like Gabbard, though her isolationist stances might be favorable in Iowa) is in the mid-50s. Doesn't mean any of them will/would get there or especially close, but it's frankly ridiculous to assert that Democratic candidates couldn't possibly reach Obama 2008 levels in Iowa.

No. It's ridiculous to assert they can ever get anywhere near the rural support Obama got in 2008 in a Presidential contest at least. That's like saying it's ridiculous to assert that Biden couldn't possibly reach Obama 2008 levels in MO and IN

Biden’s ceiling in Elliott County is Obama’s 25-point win from 2008 tbqh

TBH its probably LBJ's 60+ point win.

[Xing]

47%, which could be just enough to eke out a win if there’s a recession. Otherwise, he’ll lose, probably by at least several points. I don’t think he’ll play too well in Iowa.

[Tintrlvr]

Clearly higher than 50%. Iowa is very elastic, and the ceiling for all of the Democratic candidates (except maybe really fringe-y ones like Gabbard, though her isolationist stances might be favorable in Iowa) is in the mid-50s. Doesn't mean any of them will/would get there or especially close, but it's frankly ridiculous to assert that Democratic candidates couldn't possibly reach Obama 2008 levels in Iowa.

No. It's ridiculous to assert they can ever get anywhere near the rural support Obama got in 2008 in a Presidential contest at least. That's like saying it's ridiculous to assert that Biden couldn't possibly reach Obama 2008 levels in MO and IN

It is ridiculous to assert that. The question is not asking for the levels of support candidates will obtain. The question is asking the absolute maximum that they could obtain if everything went their way. Surely Obama 2008 numbers in Missouri and Indiana are also within the theoretical realm of possibility for Biden (or other Democrats), if low probability. The only states where Obama 2008 results are completely out of reach for the 2020 Democrats are the Appalachian/Upland South states (Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee) and maybe Illinois.

[SN2903]

45-46 . He isn't winning Iowa.

[cvparty]

49% if everything goes right for him and he doesnt crash and burn

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say 48%, but his floor could be as low as 36%.

Too many white liberals to go that far below the 41% Clinton got.

Eh, I don't think so. There's plenty of rural counties that still have room for further Trump growth, and I don't believe elasticity only goes one way. Iowa has the potential to be a true battleground if everything goes right for Democrats or a blood red state like Missouri if everything goes right for Trump.

Also just want to say 48% isn't implying he would always lose, as he could win 48-47.

[😥]

Higher than 50%

[redrick]

Higher than 50%

Iowa is a very elastic state. Several statewide Democrats won comfortable victories in 2018, which tells
me that it is still open to voting for a Democrat should circumstances align.

I think the state is straddling the border of Lean/Likely R right now. Certain circumstances (recession, Trump scandals, etc.) could push it into a position where it would vote Democratic, but status quo, I think it sticks with Trump regardless of the Democrat running.

[Sestak]

85%. #populist. Elastic. Won it twice already, clearly entrenched.

[henster]

If farm incomes keep deteriorating like they are then we are probably going to see a lot of weird results in Ag heavy states. The farm crisis in the 80s helped Mondale come close in IA in '84 and how Dukakis carried it by double digits in '88.

[OSR stands with Israel]

5 point win , IA is a very elastic state and could swing from being +10 Trump - +5 Dem in 2020

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If farm incomes keep deteriorating like they are then we are probably going to see a lot of weird results in Ag heavy states. The farm crisis in the 80s helped Mondale come close in IA in '84 and how Dukakis carried it by double digits in '88.

But people care more about cultural issues than economic ones these days.

[Frenchrepublican]

His ceilling is probably something like 51/52%, but it doesn't mean that he will reach it as his favorability will likely go down. I think that in the end Biden loses IA 48/51

[Politician]

Higher than 50%, of course. Democrats literally got over 50% of the vote in Iowa in multiple 2018 elections, and I highly doubt Biden is such a horrible fit for the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Higher than 50%, of course. Democrats literally got over 50% of the vote in Iowa in multiple 2018 elections, and I highly doubt Biden is such a horrible fit for the state.

Democrats literally got over 50% of the vote in Montana and West Virginia in multiple 2012 elections, which clearly foreshadowed the massive success they had in those states in 2016. /s You really can’t compare low-profile statewide elections for Auditor or Superintendent or whatever to federal races, ESPECIALLY presidential elections.

[Comrade Funk]

A state that went 50%+ in 2008/2012 will never do so again because muh 2016. 🙄

[Politician]

A state that went 50%+ in 2008/2012 will never do so again because muh 2016. 🙄

Tbh Mississippi is more likely to flip than Iowa

[pbrower2a]

Trump made promises and didn't deliver. In 2018 the majority of the total vote for Congressional Representatives went to Democrats, so it looks as if Iowa voters were giving Trump a message. The gubernatorial election is typically more about statewide issues.

A state that went from having a 3-1 R delegation to having a 3-1 D delegation and whose 'surviving' R delegate is terribly weakened makes the 2016 election irrelevant. Iowa may be more R than the tipping-point state (Wisconsin), but not by much. The demographics of Iowa are like those of Wisconsin.

Biden seems a strong  prospect as a Democratic nominee -- maybe not as strong as Obama (who could be?) but Trump has been slipping in America's rural areas. Biden get about 52% of the popular vote while the Trump vote will be less than 46% if some conservative runs an effective campaign. 2020 looks like a good year for an equivalent of John Anderson to mess up Trump.   

[Galeel]

Entirely depends on the national environment. If there is a big recession, Biden could very will win Iowa.