1964: Kennedy/Johnson vs. Goldwater/Miller

[Joe Republic]

The obvious divergence being that Kennedy was never assassinated.

I would still say a big win for the Democrats, but most likely not as big as in real life.  It's difficult to speculate how much the Kennedy shooting contributed to 'sympathy votes' for Johnson in real life, which of course would not apply here.

Maps?

[Lincoln Republican]

Kennedy/Johnson            425
Goldwater/Miller               113

[Joe Republic]

That looks fairly reasonable.  Was that calculated by a uniform swing?

[Lincoln Republican]

The methodology used

Goldwater wins all the states he won in 1964.  Goldwater's margins in AL-38.90, GA-8.25, LA-13.63, MS-74.28, SC-17.79, were substantial enough in the actual 1964 election to warrant winning them in this scenario.  AZ-0.99, although extremely close in 1964, being Goldwater's home state, was as well very likely to go for Goldwater in this scenario.

For the rest of the Goldwater states, these are the states that voted for Nixon in 1960 by a large, or comfortable enough margin, as well, given these states Presidential voting histories, that I believe Goldwater would have won them in this scenario.  ID-7.57, IN-10.43, IA-13.49, KS-21.35, NE-24.14, ND-10.90, OK-18.04, SD-16.43, UT-9.64, WY-10.03.

Although in 1960 Nixon won ME-14.10, NH-6.84, VT-17.30, I believe these states would have been won by Kennedy, as I do not believe Goldwater would have the necessary appeal in these New England states to win them, even in 1964.  That, combined with the fact that Kennedy was from New England, is why I believe Kennedy would have won these states.  A different, more moderate Republican candidate in 1964, would likely have won ME, NH and VT, but not Goldwater. 

[Joe Republic]

That's a very reasonable analysis, and I can't say I disagree with it at all.

[Lincoln Republican]

That's a very reasonable analysis, and I can't say I disagree with it at all.

Thanks.

So, I guess we now have the "official results" for the 1964 election between Kennedy/Johnson and Goldwater/Miller. 

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm...no major divergences means the voting rights act got passed just the same, right? ...and the White South throws the same fit over it, and Goldwater allows his name to be as identified with them as in real life?
In that case I'd guess on a larger Dem win.
But I doubt all of that would have happened without the Kennedy assassination... (before I make a prediction of what would have happened instead, I should do a little more reading on details...)

[glm15jul]

I agree with the electoral votes (425-113).  Not as bad as real time (Johnson-Humphrey), but still a landslide.  I can see this happening.  * Kennedy-Johnson beating Goldwater-Miller. *
It would have been JFK-LBJ in 1964.  One main reason:  Johnson and FBI Director, good friends, had alot of dirt on the Kennedys.  Although Kennedy may have wanted to dump LBJ and select Terry Sanford, Governor of North Carolina, he would not be able to do so.  It was blackmail that got LBJ on the ticket in 1960.  Although Johnson hated the vice presidency, he knew he was always "one heartbeat away" from the presidency.  HE WAS NOT GOING ANYWHERE.  ... However, two things could have happened in 1964 to derail both LBJ, from being the VP nominee, and President Kennedy, from being the presidential nominee.
1.  The scandal of Bobby Baker, associating itself with LBJ, could have forced Johnson off the ticket and in prison.  If that happened, JFK could have selected Sanford or whoever to run with him in '64.   BUT, and there is always a but, is'nt there!  Johnson, knowing he was going down, due to the scandal, would have taken somebody with him:
2. President Kennedy.
I would not put it past him.  He would have asked J. Edgar Hoover, who also did not like the Kennedys, to release everything on the President.  His association with a german girl, who was a nazi spy, in 1941,  His relationships with certain women in the mob, His health reports, including having Addison Disease since at least 1947, and his affair with another girl, also a spy, that He was currently seeing in 1963.  Wow!  President Kennedy would be forced to resign, big time, if all this came out.
But also J. Edgar Hoover would then be exposed by Robert Kennedy, taking it out on Hoover for ruining his brother, the president.  Hoover was a homosexual and that would have come out.
So, Kennedy-Johnson would have won the election in 1964 in a landslide over Goldwater and Miller. But to think about it, the events of November 22, 1963 allowed none of this to happen, sparing us scandal upon scandal, that would have taken down President Kennedy, Vice President Johnson and FBI Director Hoover. If this happened, that would have been the only way that Goldwater and Miller would have won the 1964 election. And maybe, history would have recorded worse things in 1965-1969, that actually happened.

[Thomas D]

JFK 353-185

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

After reading this article in Time Magazine from 1964 I really don't think Barry Goldwater would've done too well even without the sympathy vote. JFK wouldn't have smeared Goldwater to the extent that LBJ did, but people would've still thought that Goldwater was way too extreme back then: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,876299-1,00.html

John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson (D): 461 EV
Barry Goldwater/William Miller (R): 77 EV

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I agree with Han for the most part that Goldwater would not have been much more competitive even without the sympathy vote, though I do think he would have done better in a few states against Kennedy instead of Johnson (such as OK)

436 - 102

[Vote UKIP!]

Well, Kennedy was not incredibly popular, not to say that he had no chance of winning.

Don't count out Barry Goldwater either. A southwesterner might beat a smooth-talking  northeasterner.

Kennedy might not have pushed for Civil Rights as Johnson had. Thus, Goldwater might be able to skirt the Civil Rights issue, the issue I believe that killed his campaign.

With that in mind, the Solid South might not have been so enthusiastic about supporting a Republican.

Either candidate might have won by a narrow margin.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Well, Kennedy was not incredibly popular, not to say that he had no chance of winning.

Don't count out Barry Goldwater either. A southwesterner might beat a smooth-talking  northeasterner.

Kennedy might not have pushed for Civil Rights as Johnson had. Thus, Goldwater might be able to skirt the Civil Rights issue, the issue I believe that killed his campaign.

With that in mind, the Solid South might not have been so enthusiastic about supporting a Republican.

Either candidate might have won by a narrow margin.

Kennedy's approval ratings were ~60% when he was assassinated in Dallas.

[Vote UKIP!]

I stand corrected.

[Phony Moderate]

Kennedy/Johnson - 455
Goldwater/Miller - 83

[NHI]

D: 447
R:   91

[Dancing with Myself]

D: 447
R:   91

Kennedy wouldn't have kept Johnson, the two did not get along. He most likely would have gotten Terry Sanford or Hubert Humphrey

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

D: 447
R:   91

Kennedy wouldn't have kept Johnson, the two did not get along. He most likely would have gotten Terry Sanford or Hubert Humphrey

Kennedy and Johnson did like each other, but Kennedy's aides (Robert in particular) didn't want LBJ involved in most of the professional work, even though Kennedy himself did. JFK's aides may have pressured him to drop Johnson, and given his popularity I doubt Kennedy would need Johnson to win in 1964, but they did like each other, at least personally.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

From what I've heard on alternatehistory.com, the idea that Kennedy would dump Johnson is only a myth and he would've kept Johnson because he needed him to help in Congress.