StormTV Early June Elections Poll

[Sirius_]

Take it here

[S019]

I voted

[Sirius_]

Results:

What is your political affiliation?
Labor: 50%
Federalist: 25%
Montfortian: 6.3%
Peace: 6.3%
Confederate: 6.3%
ACP: 6.3%
Do you approve of the following officeholders?
President Tmth: 56/25/19
Vice President Lumine: 69/6/25
SoS Bruhgmger: 69/6/25
SoIA Ninja: 69/0/31
AG 1184AZ: 31/31/38
SoFE and RG Peebs: 88/0/12
Archivist Razze: 56/6/38
Do you believe that Atlasia is headed in the right direction:
Yes: 50%
No: 31.3%
Unsure: 18.8%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Generic Labor/Peace: 56.3%
Generic Federalist/ACP: 37.5%
Generic Montfortian: 6.3%
Who would you vote for in a two way between major parties?
Generic Labor: 56.3%
Generic Federalist: 37.5%
Unsure: 6.3%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 56.3%
Tmth/Lumine: 37.5%
Unsure: 6.3%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 62.5%
YoungTexan: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 62.5%
YoungTexan/Ninja: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 50%
Generic Fed: 37.5%
Unsure: 12.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Generic Lab: 56.3%
YoungTexan: 43.8%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 62.5%
LouisvilleThunder: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Generic Lab: 62.5%
LouisvilleThunder: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Adam Griffin/Dfw: 68.8%
Fhtagn: 31.3%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Generic Lab: 68.8%
Fhtagn: 31.3%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Scott: 62.5%
Generic Fed: 31.3%
Unsure: 6.3%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Peanut: 62.5%
Generic Fed: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Pyro: 56.3%
Generic Fed: 43.8%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Devout Centrist: 62.5%
Generic Fed: 37.5%
Who would you vote for in the following matchup?
Ontario Progressive: 62.5%
Generic Fed: 37.5%

[Sirius_]

Analysis:

The left leads all matchups in this poll, but was clearly overrepresented in this poll compared to the right and center. The straight presidential matchups are probably the least helpful data to come out of this poll. First point of interest is the fact that the Tmth administration carries impressively high approvals despite the leftist majority in the poll, and people on the left don't seem to be unhappy with Atlasia currently, but would still vote against Tmth. That brings us to the other story of the poll, which is polarization. Analyzing the demographics of the poll has shown that the left is voting for the left, and the right is voting for the right, without defection. A more even sample would have almost certainly produced a more even result. If either side fails to turn out voters, they will likely lose, and it will probably come to down a few independents if turnout is comparable. Pyro and Fhtagn seem to be more polarizing than the rest, underperforming their respective sides, so it is possible that moderates could have a small but impactful effect.