AR-2 2020?

[MassBlueDog]

I'm going lean R.  I'm a little hopeful, but I still think this district has the potential to flip.

[Skunk]

It'll be harder than it was in 2018, so I don't see it flipping. If Trump wins a second term it could flip in 2022 provided it doesn't get gerrymandered.

[S019]

Likely R, I mean if they ran Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, or Mike Beebe, this might be competitive

[DaWN]

Likely R, I mean if they ran Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, or Mike Beebe, this might be competitive

I do hope you mean if the Republicans ran them, because I don't see how running two people who lost statewide by comically large margins is going to be all that beneficial to the Dems.

Anyway, Likely R. There's better targets and the district isn't really all that friendly. Maybe one day.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R in 2020. Who knows how district will be changed after that...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

Running retread conservadems isn't going to work. look at Bredesen in 2018.

[lfromnj]

Likely R but the GOP will gerrymander it pretty hardly in 2022.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R.
Democrats tried hard in 2018 and lost. The future of the Democratic party is in suburbs of the sunbelt, not in Arkansas

[Galeel]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

Running retread conservadems isn't going to work. look at Bredesen in 2018.

Yeah, do look at Bredesen 2018. Losing by 11 points in Tennessee is not a failure for Democrats, it is probably about their cap.

[smoltchanov]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

Running retread conservadems isn't going to work. look at Bredesen in 2018.

Running "bold progressives" works no better.... And Bredesen got much higher percentage, then such progressive would in 2018 Tennessee

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

Running retread conservadems isn't going to work. look at Bredesen in 2018.

Dude, have a little more depth to things. The state of Tennessee is pvi R+14 and Trump +26 meanwhile AR 2nd is pvi R+7 and Trump +10 two totally different lifts.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Mike Beebe would have unseated French Hill in 2018 if he ran, he would also in 2020, both narrow but firm wins. Anything short of Beebe would constitute a loss.

Running retread conservadems isn't going to work. look at Bredesen in 2018.

Running "bold progressives" works no better.... And Bredesen got much higher percentage, then such progressive would in 2018 Tennessee

I agree, basically no Democrat regardless of ideology is going to win in Tennessee or in this CD.

[wesmoorenerd]

Likely R. Tucker only lost by around 6, so it's very unlikely to flip, but it's certainly possible.

[lfromnj]

Safe R merely due to the Trump Margin and lack of a strong trend. Maybe it flips in a mega D wave with a strong D candidate. Its def getting slightly better for the D's.

[HarrisonL]

We should value flipping seats like MO-2 for example over seats like AR-2

[beesley]

Likely R, I mean if they ran Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, or Mike Beebe, this might be competitive

Really? If the Dems had to run them, that would be pretty embarassing.

[IceSpear]

Dems had a strong well-funded candidate here in a D+9 Democratic wave year and he still got thumped. Unless you think 2020 is going to be a megagigatsunami, why in the world would this district be the slightest bit competitive? It's barely even trending D.

[Sestak]

Very unlikely. Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean.

[Continential]

Safe R, in 2018 the Democrats triaged Claude Tucker.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Likely R, closer to Safe R. Very very unlikely to win but still More likely to vote dem then #populist ME-02, IL-13, or WA-03.

[here2view]

Safe R, Likely R if you can run ol' Blanche to pick up the Yellow Dog votes. They're still out there!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dems had a strong well-funded candidate here in a D+9 Democratic wave year and he still got thumped. Unless you think 2020 is going to be a megagigatsunami, why in the world would this district be the slightest bit competitive? It's barely even trending D.

Losing by 6.3% when the race only came on the national party's radar pretty late in the game doesn't =/= getting thumped.  Getting thumped means losing by more than 8%, at least imo.

[IceSpear]

Dems had a strong well-funded candidate here in a D+9 Democratic wave year and he still got thumped. Unless you think 2020 is going to be a megagigatsunami, why in the world would this district be the slightest bit competitive? It's barely even trending D.

Losing by 6.3% when the race only came on the national party's radar pretty late in the game doesn't =/= getting thumped.  Getting thumped means losing by more than 8%, at least imo.

6 points is not a landslide but it is not particularly close either. And I remember Clarke Tucker being hyped up from the very beginning of 2018.