IL-12 2020

[scooby]

Is this seat even remotely worth contesting in 2020? Kelly was a decent candidate, but Bost still performed well in must-win Dem counties like Jackson. If so, who could run? Maybe Jerry Costello, Jr.?

[lfromnj]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

[jamestroll]

The district is more competitive than Atlas would make you think. Despite a counter wave we did make a good effort for this seat and Bost was held to 51%.

I would recommend Democrats focusing on retaining IL-14 and picking up IL-13. Underwood will have a race on her hands in a downballot solidly GOP district but we should be able to retain it. Trump won't win it by more than a few points.

IL-13 I could certainly see us picking up. In fact, Democrats down ballot did better in IL13 than IL14. Pritzker actual won IL-13 and the only Republican who carried it for statewide office was Erika Harold for Attorney General.

[Sestak]

I don’t think so. If we’re looking at anything in IL, 13 is probably a much better shot.

[Gracile]

It seems like this seat is fools gold for the Democrats. If Bost can't be taken down by one of the party's top recruits in a wave year, then it's doubtful that he will lose in a cycle with Trump on the ballot.

[jamestroll]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

Probably. It might be one of those rare cases where he's better off trying to go for a higher chance of winning a higher office than winning re-election to his current seat. Kind of like Jared Golden.

Looking at it I would agree with should have Costello Jr try for IL-12. No I do not think he could win re-election with Trump on top of the ballot. Even Jesse White only won his state house district by 3 points. The other Republican statewide candidates landslided there.

It was kinda sad to see how far right the metro east has become. I remember looking at the map all night wondering when Madison County would flip to Pritzker. It never did.

Costello Jr's current house district is more GOP than the district as a whole lol!

[S019]

Likely R, people who think that Democrats can win this, are liek those who think Republicans can win VA-10, CO-06, or MN-03, back. It’s not happening, unless maybe a 10 point Generic Ballot win in a wave. However, in a normal environment, I’d say IL-12 is Likely R while those 3 are Safe D, because Republicans are much more open to ticket-splitting

[Bidenworth2020]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

I do not think he was contested that year? At least that is what NYT says.

[Xing]

No, this ones gone. I think people overestimate how “gone” districts like IA-01 are for Democrats, but there’s a big difference between Trump+3 and Trump+16.

[lfromnj]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

I do not think he was contested that year? At least that is what NYT says.

It looks like he was unopposed in 2016 and 2014 and won by 25% in 2012 when the area was much more D-friendly downballot. The fact he won at all last year was impressive. He might be holding the title for most Republican district outside of the Deep South to be represented by a Democrat

Frank burns in PA in Cambria county might have the record.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No, this ones gone. I think people overestimate how “gone” districts like IA-01 are for Democrats, but there’s a big difference between Trump+3 and Trump+16.

D***, I didn't realize just how well Trump did here.  Yeah, this one's probably off the table although we might as well run a wave/scandal insurance candidate and see if we can make the Republicans waste some money.

[DrScholl]

It's kind of pointless to challenge it when it will probably be gone in redistricting. Democrats can easily make IL-13 a fairly safe downstate district by drawing East St. Louis into it and then merging the rest of IL-12 with the other downstate rural district.

[ElectionsGuy]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

It isn't in play. However it would be interesting to see how much Costello would lose by. He probably would get within single digits but would not be able to win.

[Politician]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

To be fair, most of the people who (hackishly) think TX-32/TX-7/NJ-7/KS-3 are Titanium D also acknowledge seats such as this are Safe R.

[Bidenworth2020]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

It isn't in play. However it would be interesting to see how much Costello would lose by. He probably would get within single digits but would not be able to win.

Yeah, it’s Safe R barring Costello running and Likely R with him. It’d probably require a wave of 2008 proportions (or bigger) for someone like Costello to actually win. It’d be somewhere in the 250’s or 260’s in Dem House seats.

I would not go that far. 2018 was by no means that big a wave, and he still won by 8.

[IceSpear]

No. Dems couldn't even come close to winning this in a D+9 Democratic wave. Not to mention the horrific trends for them in this district.

Safe R

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

It isn't in play. However it would be interesting to see how much Costello would lose by. He probably would get within single digits but would not be able to win.

Yeah, it’s Safe R barring Costello running and Likely R with him. It’d probably require a wave of 2008 proportions (or bigger) for someone like Costello to actually win. It’d be somewhere in the 250’s or 260’s in Dem House seats.

I would not go that far. 2018 was by no means that big a wave, and he still won by 8.

Landslide Van drew agrees. Costello would probably get some local advantage but its not enough to offset the Trump Trend.

[IceSpear]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

To be fair, most of the people who (hackishly) think TX-32/TX-7/NJ-7/KS-3 are Titanium D also acknowledge seats such as this are Safe R.

All those you listed are unironically likely/safe D.

[Don Vito Corleone]

No, this ones gone. I think people overestimate how “gone” districts like IA-01 are for Democrats, but there’s a big difference between Trump+3 and Trump+16.

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

To be fair, most of the people who (hackishly) think TX-32/TX-7/NJ-7/KS-3 are Titanium D also acknowledge seats such as this are Safe R.

All those you listed are unironically likely/safe D.

Clinton Beto D 2018 voter for Trump/Beloved Cornyn 2020 R house candidate.

[JGibson]

As a resident of this district, there is one correct answer: Safe R, sadly.

If Brendan Kelly couldn't win in a good year for Team Blue, then it's a longshot at best hope to flip this seat Blue.

Costello Jr. and Bristow are in jeopardy of losing in 2020 at the State House in Illinois.

[wesmoorenerd]

Safe R, but closer to Likely than Titanium, if that makes sense. Could flip in a tsunami, but only if Dems somehow manage to win as many seats in 2020 as they did in 2018.

[jamestroll]

As a resident of this district, there is one correct answer: Safe R, sadly.

If Brendan Kelly couldn't win in a good year for Team Blue, then it's a longshot at best hope to flip this seat Blue.

Costello Jr. and Bristow are in jeopardy of losing in 2020 at the State House in Illinois.

It is absolutely not an unwinnable district per se but I demand that we try to get IL-13 in 2020 because looking at it deeper you could argue it is more Democratic friendly overall compared to IL-14 even.

I am unsure who Bristow's opponent is so far for 2020 but her district was a mix of Democratic and Republican victories. The GOP probably will pick up Costello Jrs seat with relative ease considering Trumps inevitable landslide there coming.

We have discussed this before I believe but I am betting that within 3 cycles McHenry County will be much more friendly to Team Blue compared to Madison County.

[morgieb]

Pretty much gone for good barring a severe recession popping up in the next 18 months (i.e. Dems have to be winning by at least Obama 08 margins for this to be in play)