What do you think Trump's re-election chances are?

[morgankingsley]

Give your realistic unbiased opinion.

I would say 51-60 percent. I think that until the Democrats can get a candidate they can get behind, a message they can get behind that isn't "I'm not Trump", I would guess that Trump has the ever so slight electoral advantage. I think he will have a lean chance, but at the same time, I do understand all of the problems that is going on, and I do think that the Democrats can still easily have it in the race. I do not want to write either candidate out yet

Poll is set to lock on November 3, 2020, which is election day

[Xing]

~50%

[pppolitics]

The only way Trump could possibly win is to drag his opponent down to his level.

If the election becomes a referendum on Trump, he is f***ed.

[TML]

At this point in time, I'd say 1-in-3.

[SN2903]

At this point in time, I'd say 1-in-3.

On what basis? Way too low. Incumbency, strong economy a relatively weak democratic field.  When Biden is the front runner you know your party is in trouble. It's at least 50 50. I voted for 61-70

[KaiserDave]

~50%

[Roll Roons]

Around 45-49%. I think it comes down to the pure tossups of Wisconsin and Arizona, with Pennsylvania and Michigan tilting D and Florida tilting R. Assuming they keep all the Hillary states, Democrats only need to win one of the two to get 270, which is very possible for them.

Trump's base will always turn out for him and there's a chance Democrats will either get complacent again or nominate someone who could be seen as too far left (i.e. Bernie, Warren or Harris). I see him as a very slight underdog, but he should not be counted out by any means.

[Reaganfan]

51-60 percent   

[scooby]

40-45%

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Dead-on 50 percent as of right now. these odds will change once we have an official nominee though.

[eric82oslo]

About 4%. Though 48% if Biden is the candidate.

[Peeperkorn]

65%

[Tender Branson]

40-48%

Whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee will likely open a 5-10% lead by the summer/fall of 2020 and defeat him by winning WI, MI and PA this time around.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

~50%

[Politician]

~33%

[ElectionsGuy]

51-60 percent   

[Fuzzy Bear]

40-50 percent at this point.  "At this point" is the key.

[Bidenworth2020]

40-50 percent at this point.  "At this point" is the key.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

45%, only because Dems are divided right now. Once Dems have a nominee, the Dems chances grow even more stronger

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

At this point in time, I'd say 1-in-3.

On what basis? Way too low. Incumbency, strong economy a relatively weak democratic field.  When Biden is the front runner you know your party is in trouble. It's at least 50 50. I voted for 61-70

I'd say one-in-three as well.

He's alienated a small but significant portion of his voters last time. It's iffy if we'll be in recession or worse by Nov 2020.  And the Dems are motivated.

His best (almost only) real hope is that the Dems fracture. Otherwise he's toast.

Which won't prevent staying in office illegitimately, via foreign assistance, illegal shenanigans backed by a stacked Supreme Court, or a outright coup.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

35%

[here2view]

45%

[pbrower2a]

I see a President who cheated to get elected the first time, who has offended people who are not automatic voters for the Democratic party, who reeks of corruption, and who has acted in ways that one can describe as dictatorial or despotic. His corruption alone is a theme of electoral defeat.

He must cheat to get re-elected, and he is ruthless and amoral enough to do so. That is the 10-20% chance that I give him. He should otherwise lose on the level of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, at least in the popular vote.

[Fuzzy Bear]

45%

About that, quite frankly.

Trump's an underdog.  I have not decided to vote for him as of this time, even as a loathe most (but not all) of the current Democratic field.  He's who he is, and there are people I know who are more Republican at heart than I am. (I'm more of a disaffected Democrat than a Republican at heart.)  But I never put it past the Democrats to come down with untimely Diarrhea of the Mouth and make some kind of stupid statement that will sink their candidate.

To those who would say, "But my Trump!":  Trump is pretty outrageous in what he says and how he acts in many ways, but it's carefully calculated.  The Democrats' gaffes are when they make statements that can be inferred to be a reflection of the REAL (but less popular) stance they are taking on some hot-button issue.  It's a consequence of their Identity Politics.  The Democrats have to give oxygen to issues such as Repirations and Open Borders, while denying unqualified support for ideas such as this, in order to mollify their particular partisan group makeup.  Then, someone goes off the reservation and spills the beans on the Democrats' true intent (or, at a minimum, gets credibly presented in that light) and they sink in the polls.  "Message Discipline" is something that Trump actually gets moreso than do the Democrats, and that's saying something.

[pbrower2a]

45%

About that, quite frankly.

Trump's an underdog.  I have not decided to vote for him as of this time, even as a loathe most (but not all) of the current Democratic field.  He's who he is, and there are people I know who are more Republican at heart than I am. (I'm more of a disaffected Democrat than a Republican at heart.)  But I never put it past the Democrats to come down with untimely Diarrhea of the Mouth and make some kind of stupid statement that will sink their candidate.

He is an underdog, all right -- but in no way an attractive one. Trump's communications have so far been fecal.

The hope for Trump will be the self-destruction of the Democrat  -- Dukakis driving a tank. Of course there are things that one cannot predict.

To those who would say, "But my Trump!":  Trump is pretty outrageous in what he says and how he acts in many ways, but it's carefully calculated.  The Democrats' gaffes are when they make statements that can be inferred to be a reflection of the REAL (but less popular) stance they are taking on some hot-button issue.  It's a consequence of their Identity Politics.

Donald Trump is identity politics to the max. It's about appealing to white people for being white. It scares me that he can say something like "I love low-information voters!" because being low-information is one way to get cheated out of a good life, whether through inadequate formal education or for being so gullible that one is easily cheated. All who have sought the improvement of a group of people by ethnicity or religion have sought better formal education for their group so that  they would be  less helpless. Thus the NAACP and LULAC are both pro-education even if as a whole blacks and Mexican-Americans are still below-average.

Trump has cheated the sorts of people who wear MAGA hats -- but they just don't know it yet. A typical con-artist, Trump appeals to people whom he butters up... and then fleeces them. It may be counter-intuitive, but it is the most distrustful people who are most likely to get scammed. Trustful people who have a windfall might go to a legitimate stock-broker who has multiple investments to offer and can find  something that fits the needs and sensibilities of a novice investor. (I chose to avoid firearms, defense contracting, alcoholic beverages, and cancerweed products). The con-artist gets extremely personable and charming (charm is a characteristic of the sociopath) and praises the wisdom of the fool, and then sells something worthless for a quick, fat gain for the con-artist.   

 The Democrats have to give oxygen to issues such as Reparations and Open Borders, while denying unqualified support for ideas such as this, in order to mollify their particular partisan group makeup.  Then, someone goes off the reservation and spills the beans on the Democrats' true intent (or, at a minimum, gets credibly presented in that light) and they sink in the polls.

 

Straw-man fallacy.

"Message Discipline" is something that Trump actually gets moreso than do the Democrats, and that's saying something.

Donald Trump was successful because he debased politics in the minds of his opponents while solidifying his support. He did that in the primary, and he did that in the general election. Such was not successful in 2018, and people know what he is up to. More than half of Americans disapprove of him, and "strong disapproval" is typically higher than his total approval.

I can make good conservative arguments against Trump, especially on foreign policy. In dealing with dictatorships a President is wisest to have the mailed fist under the velvet glove. In dealing with more decent people, one needs simply put a smaller velvet clove over a hand that needs not become a mailed fist. I despise his vile language, his vituperative insults, his corruption, his cruelty, and his contempt for Constitutional norms.