Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.
Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.
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I agree with a previous poster that Trump is on an upward trajectory. I think he will get more popular in 2020 than he is now and if he wins in 2020 which I think he will he will end up getting into the 50s in approval for his 2nd term on average. Bush was on a downward trajectory in approval in 03 04 cause of Iraq.
