Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

DJT came out of the Mueller Report-era without being pinned for collusion, while Bush was still riding off the high of the Iraq invasion.  At this point in their presidencies, who is/was in better shape for re-election?

[Higgins]

Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.

Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump

[Nightcore Nationalist]

W.

His approvals were far higher, and the electoral map wasn't as ossified as it was back then-he was competitive in WI/MN/NM/NV/PA/NH/OR and handily won VA, NC and FL.

Trump HAS to win one of the rust belt states, or two if he loses Arizona.  I'd still give him at least 55% chance of pulling it off, but Bush's re-election seemed far more likely at the time.  We basically know how all but 6 or 7 of the states are going to vote.

[SingingAnalyst]

Bush. As you indicated, he was still riding high after the Iraq invasion, and the war had not yet started to show signs of going badly. His approval ratings were better than Trump's at this point.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.

Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.

Bush was leading by double digits in the polls and even leading in some polls in a state like California (which while not a democratic as now still went to Gore by double digits ). The war was still very popular then and actually boosted him in the polls .


The war really didn’t start to get polarized till like May of 04 and didn’t become unpopular till mid 05

[BlueSwan]

Bush, absolutely. How is this even a question?

[LabourJersey]

Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.

Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.

I really, deeply disagree with the idea that most people think the economy is "getting better." People are aware of issues of inequality, and regardless of their political leanings think it's a bad thing. I also think there's plenty of nervousness about when the next recession will come, which we saw during that super short Wall Street crash just before Christmas.

People definitely do not feel as positive about the economy now as they did in April 2003.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Bush, absolutely. How is this even a question?

[S019]

W.

His approvals were far higher, and the electoral map wasn't as ossified as it was back then-he was competitive in WI/MN/NM/NV/PA/NH/OR and handily won VA, NC and FL.

Trump HAS to win one of the rust belt states, or two if he loses Arizona.  I'd still give him at least 55% chance of pulling it off, but Bush's re-election seemed far more likely at the time.  We basically know how all but 6 or 7 of the states are going to vote.

This

[One Term Floridian]

Bush easily. Plus the Democratic field in 2004 was much, much weaker. Clearly Democrats weren’t betting on Bush being in a weak position for re-election.

[Gracile]

Dubya. The wars Iraq and Afghanistan produced a rally around the incumbent effect in many parts of the country.

[UWS]

Bush by a lot due to his handling of the War on Terror.

[JGibson]

Bush 43 easily.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The guy with approval ratings in the 70s or the guy with approval ratings in the low 40s?

How is this a question?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bush, absolutely. How is this even a question?

The guy with approval ratings in the 70s or the guy with approval ratings in the low 40s?

How is this a question?

I'm as bullish on Trump as anyone. But seriously, this is not up for debate.

[Tartarus Sauce]

W, he didn't permanently alienate nearly as many people as Trump has (at least not by 2003 when he was still fairly popular). Trump's brand is an extremely high risk one.

[User155815470020]

W.

His approvals were far higher, and the electoral map wasn't as ossified as it was back then-he was competitive in WI/MN/NM/NV/PA/NH/OR and handily won VA, NC and FL.

Trump HAS to win one of the rust belt states, or two if he loses Arizona.  I'd still give him at least 55% chance of pulling it off, but Bush's re-election seemed far more likely at the time.  We basically know how all but 6 or 7 of the states are going to vote.

This

[SN2903]

Bush because the country was at war in 03 and there was a rally around the flag effect...but Trump is more popular than most of the dem hacks on Atlas seem to think. Half of the country roughly supports him. Similar to Nixon Trump has been able to get voters in the middle turned off by the far left/America hater crowd. The economy is pretty damn strong right now.

[McGarnagle]

I can't believe anybody is answering Trump.

At this point in '03 Bush had very high approvals. They only started a downturn over the summer of '03 with the Iraq War insurgency and increasing U.S. deaths. Eventually it was close in the polls (many showed him losing to Kerry by 1-2 points) but he pulled through, to my chagrin and the chagrin of millions of others. Despite the Iraq War going south, keep in mind this was still within just a couple years after 9/11 and that strongly favored the incumbent's chances.

Trump hasn't had an approval rating above water since his first week in office. He's consistently polled behind even the weaker Democratic candidates, by a larger margin than just one to two points. He's done everything he can to alienate voters who did not vote for him in 2016. His chances for re-election are considerably slimmer than Bush's were.

[Mr. Smith]

Dubya. The wars Iraq and Afghanistan produced a rally around the incumbent effect in many parts of the country.

[Pericles]

Bush, absolutely. How is this even a question?

[Inmate Trump]

Bush, and it's not even close.

[Sestak]

W is the objectively correct answer here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean Trump ,but they are really two totally opposite situations.  Trump has weak-ish approvals and polling vs. challengers but appears to be on a upward trajectory.  Bush 43 looked like he was going to be reelected in a historic landslide at this point in his 1st term, then made a long string of unforced errors for the last ~18 months and only eeked it out by one state. 

There's a pretty long history of 2 term presidents being underwater in approvals and losing to challengers in horserace polls 2-3 years into their first term and then rallying back to majority approval and a win by election day.  Reagan looked very weak in 1982-83, as did Obama in 2011.  Truman was famously written off as a double digit loser until staging a comeback in the last 6 weeks of the 1948 campaign.   

Conversely, Carter and Bush 41 looked like strong favorites until the last year of their terms.  Bush 43 was basically following that path.  The most interesting part is that he still managed to limp over the line and win reelection. 

Um no he was extremely unpopular for most of 1979 and many people didnt even think he would b renominated let alone reelected