Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election? (user search)
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  Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election?  (Read 3250 times)
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,254
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

« on: April 26, 2019, 01:29:37 PM »

Bush. As you indicated, he was still riding high after the Iraq invasion, and the war had not yet started to show signs of going badly. His approval ratings were better than Trump's at this point.

The guy with approval ratings in the 70s or the guy with approval ratings in the low 40s?

How is this a question?

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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,254
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2020, 11:31:00 PM »


Not really lolworthy. Trump outperformed and still held in the 40's, and if some 45,000 votes went differently [or 110,000 votes...similar to Bush's Ohio margin], he'd probably have stayed flat to the end.

In other words, Bush needed to do more to get through, but also could afford to lose more things too...whereas Trump was always a careful balance.



Except..  Bush actually won reelection, and Trump didn't--thus Bush was clearly in a better position to win.

That's not really the question, though.  The question was:  who was in a better position to win a year from the election? 
In November 2003, George W. Bush had a 54% approval rating and still had a lot of political goodwill after 9/11.

In November 2019, Donald Trump had a 43% approval rating and was in the midst of an impeachment scandal.


It's not even a comparison. Dubya was in a MUCH better position and that ended up coming to fruition in 2004 with his re-election. Trump lost.
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