Trump. Outside of his Twitter crap, he's not really having an effect on your average Joe's Daily life. I think the average perception of America, from an economic standpoint (which, at the end of the day, is what matters) is that things are good and getting better.
Bush in 2003 was preparing to send us into a war. He was much more direct and lines were being drawn. Kerry's weakness and the Presidency incumbency + Being a wartime President saved him. The War in Iraq, while not as unpopular as later, was on everyone's minds at this point in 2003.
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