Lol at the people who said Trump
Not really lolworthy. Trump outperformed and still held in the 40's, and if some 45,000 votes went differently [or 110,000 votes...similar to Bush's Ohio margin], he'd probably have stayed flat to the end.
In other words, Bush needed to do more to get through, but also could afford to lose more things too...whereas Trump was always a careful balance.
Except.. Bush actually won reelection, and Trump didn't--thus Bush was clearly in a better position to win.
That's not really the question, though. The question was: who was in a better position to win a year from the election?