Trump '19 v. Dubya '03: who is/was in better shape for re-election?

[Mr. Smith]

Dubya. The wars Iraq and Afghanistan produced a rally around the incumbent effect in many parts of the country.

[Mr. Smith]

Lol at the people who said Trump

Not really lolworthy. Trump outperformed and still held in the 40's, and if some 45,000 votes went differently [or 110,000 votes...similar to Bush's Ohio margin], he'd probably have stayed flat to the end.

In other words, Bush needed to do more to get through, but also could afford to lose more things too...whereas Trump was always a careful balance.

[Mr. Smith]

Lol at the people who said Trump

Not really lolworthy. Trump outperformed and still held in the 40's, and if some 45,000 votes went differently [or 110,000 votes...similar to Bush's Ohio margin], he'd probably have stayed flat to the end.

In other words, Bush needed to do more to get through, but also could afford to lose more things too...whereas Trump was always a careful balance.

Except..  Bush actually won reelection, and Trump didn't--thus Bush was clearly in a better position to win.

I could add that the College was against him, whereas Trump had quite the reserve.

Oh and ftr, I believe I said Bush had the advantage, only that I could see the arguments on the other side.