Will Biden win Elliott County, KY?

[S019]

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

I highly doubt Appalachia trends D (it may swing D though)

[TDAS04]

No.

[S019ian Liberal]

No.

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

Trend is not the same as swing. Of course it will swing D but it will probably swing less than the nation as a whole

And no, i do think it will trend leftward if only slightly. (eg 10 point swing in margin toward biden - more than reasonable given trump's 2016 margins here)

[H. Ross Peron]

Why was hillary clinton so despised  in these areas? she's was the first lady of Arkansas for a long-time and Bill was loved by those states.

Her comment containing a reference of putting coal mines out of business alienated many people in this coal-producing region.

Someone mentioned on a previous Elliott County thread that the county never had coal production and was primarily agricultural. I imagine issues like guns still played a role.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, are you insane?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

No, are you insane?

Are you?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No, are you insane?

Are you?

Probably, but not because of this lol.

[Badger]

Voted yes for the lulz, but no.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Biden 35-40%
narrow win for McGrath

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but Biden probably gets it within low single digits.

[Adam Griffin]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

[One Term Floridian]

Biden 35-40%
narrow win for McGrath

This is what we can reasonably expect

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No, but he will come way closer than Clinton did in 2016.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Why was hillary clinton so despised  in these areas? she's was the first lady of Arkansas for a long-time and Bill was loved by those states.

Her comment containing a reference of putting coal mines out of business alienated many people in this coal-producing region.

Someone mentioned on a previous Elliott County thread that the county never had coal production and was primarily agricultural. I imagine issues like guns still played a role.

Guns alone can't explain it. If they could the county would have been lost to the Democrats in the 90s since Bill Clinton was pretty strongly pro-gun control. I think it's more that prior to 2016 Democrats were still perceived as the more populist party and because more then most other places being a Democrat seemed to be central to the identity of the area that always took precedent over social and cultural issues. It was a combination of Hillary more then any previous Democratic nominee leading off with cultural issues and Trump running as a populist that did it. If Hillary had been the nominee in 2008 she would probably have dominated in a place like Elliot and even in 2016 I think would have held on just barely if the Republican nominee had been anybody else.

[EastAnglianLefty]

No. Just look at other counties in and around Appalachia (Southern WV, Southeast KY, Southwest PA) that voted for Gore and then turned red. They never never came back. Biden is less hated than Hillary (the real reason why Bernie underperformed in 2020 - many of his 2016 voters were just protesting Hillary) but he's not going to reverse the underlying trend.

This doesn't seem to be quite right - the southern bits of the Kentucky coalfield voted for Gore but then swung to Bush and never came back, but much of the northern end voted for Bush in 2000 then swung back to Kerry in 2004.

[Orwell]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

[Adam Griffin]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

[Orwell]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

That's insanely high

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

That's insanely high

Kind of a tangent but it's always amazed me how for decades Appalachian counties that were demographically and culturally indistinguishable from each other tended to have North Korea like margins for one party or another.

[Brandern]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

That's insanely high

Kind of a tangent but it's always amazed me how for decades Appalachian counties that were demographically and culturally indistinguishable from each other tended to have North Korea like margins for one party or another.

That's like Mississippi for FDR type numbers...

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

That's insanely high

Kind of a tangent but it's always amazed me how for decades Appalachian counties that were demographically and culturally indistinguishable from each other tended to have North Korea like margins for one party or another.

That's like Mississippi for FDR type numbers...

Nah The GOP nominee never hit more than 7% in MS and Hoover and Landon got under 4%

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

2008: Obama +25.2
2010: Conway +33.6
2011: Beshear +53.5
2012: Obama +2.5
2014: Grimes +12.0
2015: Conway +17.1
2016: Trump +44.1
2019: Beshear +20.7

What was Daddy Beshear's margin in 2007?

Beshear +77.7 (89-11)

That's insanely high

Kind of a tangent but it's always amazed me how for decades Appalachian counties that were demographically and culturally indistinguishable from each other tended to have North Korea like margins for one party or another.

That's like Mississippi for FDR type numbers...

It's less weird for one party or another to dominate in a particular place and time though. The vast political divide between counties like Elliot and ancestrally unionist GOP counties like Owsley in Appalachia that only really began to narrow in the past two decades is like if there had been a cluster of Mississippi counties back then or heavily black counties today that were overwhelmingly Republican (by the same margin as their Democratic counterparts) or say a white evangelical enclave today that was overwhelmingly Democratic.

I mean maybe there are cultural distinctions within Appalachia that i'm unaware of that natives of the region would be so I could be missing something.   

[Mr. Smith]

No, but it'll vote left of the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

McGrath lost it by 37 points

Elliott is still clearly Democratic by default - it voted for the Democrat in all statewide races last year, and will always vote for a generic D over a generic R. Hillary was uniquely despised there, but obviously Biden is much closer to a generic D. Trump is still far more popular than the average Republican in Appalachia, but I think Elliott could be surprisingly close (although my gut still says a Trump victory).

McGrath wins comfortably.

"Hillary was uniquely despised". I heard this about Obama too.

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

It did in fact get more R than 2016.

No, but it'll vote left of the state.

Voted 25 points to the right of the state

Maybe you guys should stop trying to predict Elliott County from now on?

[Alcibiades]

Nah. But I think McGrath will.

McGrath lost it by 37 points

Elliott is still clearly Democratic by default - it voted for the Democrat in all statewide races last year, and will always vote for a generic D over a generic R. Hillary was uniquely despised there, but obviously Biden is much closer to a generic D. Trump is still far more popular than the average Republican in Appalachia, but I think Elliott could be surprisingly close (although my gut still says a Trump victory).

McGrath wins comfortably.

"Hillary was uniquely despised". I heard this about Obama too.

Trends are ________

Fake news!

Elliott County is definitely going to trend left this year. Trump will likely still win it, but it’s not gonna be MORE R than 2016.

It did in fact get more R than 2016.

No, but it'll vote left of the state.

Voted 25 points to the right of the state

Maybe you guys should stop trying to predict Elliott County from now on?

I’ll hold my hands up - I got this one very wrong. It was ultimately a case of Trump being uniquely loved, rather than Hillary being uniquely despised, and he brought out lots of people for McConnell. 2020 vs 2019 shows the sheer power of Trump’s presence on the ballot.

It’s hard to know what to think about 2023 - Trump won’t be on the ballot, and off-year elections benefit Dems more broadly here, but Elliot’s GOP trend is undeniable. A redux of 2019 or 2020 are both possible.