ND Governor 2020 Megathread: Battle for the Peace Garden State

[S019]

Found this interesting

http://www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/01/14/congress-lobbying-revolving-door-republicans-democrats-1098626

Especially this:

Heitkamp has no plans to become a lobbyist, according to Tessa Gould, her former chief of staff.

This is also interesting

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/government-and-politics/4556122-heitkamp-urges-public-involvement-political-front

However, she is planning to make "some announcement next week" about future plans, she said, "and I don't want to take away from that."

This is an old article, but this did come right after she declined running for governor

Could the Democratic establishment push her to do it, she has all the makings of a candidate

[S019]

Burgum Approval: 53% Approve, 22% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Heitkamp Approval (leaving office): 42% Approve, 45% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Source: Morning Consult

Safe R for now

If she runs, I’ll move it to Lean R

[TML]

Remember that Heitkamp already ran for governor once unsuccessfully back in 2000. Similarly, Claire McCaskill, who ran unsuccessfully for governor of MO in 2004, shot down the prospect of her running for that office again.

[S019]

Remember that Heitkamp already ran for governor once unsuccessfully back in 2000. Similarly, Claire McCaskill, who ran unsuccessfully for governor of MO in 2004, shot down the prospect of her running for that office again.

McCaskill now has a cozy job as a TV pundit, what even is Heitkamp doing nowadays

[Xing]

Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

[S019]

Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

Gubernatorial races are not as polarized as Senate races

[Xing]

Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

Gubernatorial races are not as polarized as Senate races

Okay, but why would a very popular incumbent governor lose to a moderately unpopular challenger?

[Continential]

SAFE R.

[S019]

Why would Heitkamp make this Lean R? She lost by double digits in a good year for Democrats, and look at her favorability versus that of Burgum. Safe R no matter what.

Gubernatorial races are not as polarized as Senate races

Okay, but why would a very popular incumbent governor lose to a moderately unpopular challenger?

She’s much better than Marvin Nelson, Tracy Potter, and other such sacrificial lambs put up by ND Dems, viable Democratic candidates seem to have a floor around 42% in downballot ND races, Heitkanp can certainly emphasize her moderateness, and Burgum could be caught off guard, given that he’s not expecting a serious challenge, in a similar way that Rick Berg was asleep at the wheel. This being a gubernatorial race, makes it much more competitive than a Senate race. A Democrat can win in ND, but not on the federal level, anymore

[LoneStarDem]

Burgum is going to be in the ND Governor's Mansion as long as he wants....

[Figueira]

Only way Burgum goes down is if he has some sort of major scandal. In that case I guess Heitkamp would be a decent candidate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Heitkamp would lose even worse than in 2018 if she were to enter.

[SnowLabrador]

Heitkamp would lose by a very large margin. It would make her 2018 defeat look like a nail-biter. In any case, she's now a CNBC contributor.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

probably one of the best possible candidates here, but it's basically safe R nonetheless. I could move this to "Very Likely R" in my rating system, but that's about as far as it will go barring scandal.

[Frenchrepublican]

Burgum Approval: 53% Approve, 22% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Heitkamp Approval (leaving office): 42% Approve, 45% Disapprove (Jan 2019)

Source: Morning Consult

Safe R for now

If she runs, I’ll move it to Lean R

Heitkamp would get trounced. She lost by 11 despite a democratic wave and a 5 to 1 spending advantage

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol

[Fuzzy Bear]

Heitkamp's chances for an electoral comeback would hinge on being named to the Cabinet of a Democratic President and performing well to where she's overhaul her image, which was damaged by some gaffes in 2020.

Before that; Heitkamp was an overperformer; her 2012 victory was truly an upset.  She didn't lead in a single poll but won on Election Day.

[Mr. Smith]

Heitkamp's chances for an electoral comeback would hinge on being named to the Cabinet of a Democratic President and performing well to where she's overhaul her image, which was damaged by some gaffes in 2020.

Before that; Heitkamp was an overperformer; her 2012 victory was truly an upset.  She didn't lead in a single poll but won on Election Day.

More like Berg was an underperformer and blew it.

[Ye We Can]

Doug Burgum isn't gonna lose lmao

[MT Treasurer]

Heitkamp's chances for an electoral comeback would hinge on being named to the Cabinet of a Democratic President and performing well to where she's overhaul her image, which was damaged by some gaffes in 2020.

Before that; Heitkamp was an overperformer; her 2012 victory was truly an upset.  She didn't lead in a single poll but won on Election Day.

This is patently false. She led in several pre-election polls, actually.

[LoneStarDem]

Burgum will stay in the ND Governor's Mansion FOREVER.

[Pandaguineapig]

She's a talking head on cable news now, besides she ruined her favorability in ND with her incoherent ramblings during the Kavanaugh saga.

[LoneStarDem]

She's a talking head on cable news now, besides she ruined her favorability in ND with her incoherent ramblings during the Kavanaugh saga.

Even if she had voted for Kavanaugh & NOT caved to Durbin & Schumer's demands, I still believe she would've gotten crushed in 2018 regardless.