More Incompetent State Party : VA GOP or FL Dems

[R.P. McM]

VA GOP has demographics going against them as an excuse.

FL Dems have no excuse. They're in a swing state and still lost an incumbent Senator in a wave for their own party.

MA Dems have no excuse for losing a gubernatorial race by 33.48 points in a state that is literally Safe for their own party and in a year that strongly favored their party as well.

Massachusetts Democrats dominate the state at every level except for the Governorship, this is an absurd comment.

Yeah, with consistent supermajorities in the legislature, does it really matter who sits in the governor's mansion? MA Dems can rewrite the law willy-nilly, and Baker can't do sh!+ without their consent. He's a glorified figurehead.

[We Live in Black and White]

Tough call, but really the VAGOP is just a scale model of the national GOP's idiocy and hard pike toward fascism being increasingly unpalatable to the voters on whom they used to rely. The FLDEMs, while faced with a state that's increasingly succumbing to redneck politics again, have seemingly succumbed willingly to the void in recent years by way of incomprehensibly stupid electoral calls.

[One Term Floridian]

Until recently I would have said FL Dems were worse, but the VA GOP is about to get absolutely wiped out of any meaningful grip on power here DESPITE all the scandals the 3 top statewide VA Dems have become embroiled in.

That’s not to say the FL Dems are any good though... but at least they’ve consistently been making it close whereas it seems VA GOP is churning weaker perfomance local and statewide with each cycle.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Confusing question. Do you just mean the party organization itself, or the voter base? If it's just the party organization, then Florida. It wasn't exactly the Virginia GOP's fault that their voters somehow thought Corey Stewart could win.

[TDAS04]

FL Dems blow more races that they should win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Almost all of the races that Democrats have lost in Florida have been winnable. None of the Virginia races in 2017/2018 were really winnable for Republicans so definitely the Florida Democrats.

[Lechasseur]

Confusing question. Do you just mean the party organization itself, or the voter base? If it's just the party organization, then Florida. It wasn't exactly the Virginia GOP's fault that their voters somehow thought Corey Stewart could win.

I don't know, FL Dems nominated a Bernie Bro who made impeaching Trump one of his platform points whose office was under FBI investigation for Governor, so they aren't exactly batting too highly in the "primary voters making good decisions" realm.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

Almost all of the races that Democrats have lost in Florida have been winnable. None of the Virginia races in 2017/2018 were really winnable for Republicans so definitely the Florida Democrats.

This

I think the last winnable race for the VA GOP was probably the 2014 Senate Race, the fundamentals are just too against them now.

On the other hand I think most races have been winnable for the FL Dems, at anyrate in 2018 the FL Dems threw away both the Senate race and Gubernatorial election by nominating Gillum for Governor. Had Gwen Graham been the nominee, the Democrats would have won the Governor's Mansion back and they would have held the Senate seat (Gillum dragged Nelson down imo).

[Fuzzy Bear]

Almost all of the races that Democrats have lost in Florida have been winnable. None of the Virginia races in 2017/2018 were really winnable for Republicans so definitely the Florida Democrats.

This

I think the last winnable race for the VA GOP was probably the 2014 Senate Race, the fundamentals are just too against them now.

On the other hand I think most races have been winnable for the FL Dems, at anyrate in 2018 the FL Dems threw away both the Senate race and Gubernatorial election by nominating Gillum for Governor. Had Gwen Graham been the nominee, the Democrats would have won the Governor's Mansion back and they would have held the Senate seat (Gillum dragged Nelson down imo).

This.

Florida's Democratic Party has become very much a regional party.  It boasts very few elected officials outside of "South Florida" (the big Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties), the Orlando area (Orange and Osceola Counties), the immediate Tallahassee area (Leon County, but not really the neighboring counties) and Gainesville (Alachua County).  Hillsborough County (Tampa) is still Democratic, but it has a large GOP minority. 

There are areas where Democrats have carried.  Pinellas (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) and Duval (Jacksonville) counties are swing counties, but Pinellas still has mostly Republican legislators, and Duval's Democrats are mostly black (although Gillum DID carry Duval County, showing that nominating a black candidate to energize minorities isn't an entirely ridiculous strategy).  There are some counties that are slowly trending Democratic (Manatee, Sarasota, and Seminole Counties come to mind), but these counties don't produce Democratic elected officials.

In many ways, the Democrats are where Florida's GOP was in 1976; they were competitive at the Presidential level, but had a depleted stable of candidates and were not likely to take over state government anytime soon.  The Democratic candidate may well carry Florida in 2020, but it is hard to see either Rubio or Scott be dumped as Senator, and DeSantis looks like a strong bet for re-election at this point.  None of that, however, precludes the Democrats from regaining lost ground in the Legislature, or in local offices.  That's the hard work that Florida's Democrats seem to have slacked at.  The number of close LEGISLATIVE races they've lost, even with decent candidates, is the most baffling aspect of Florida's politics.

[Lechasseur]

Almost all of the races that Democrats have lost in Florida have been winnable. None of the Virginia races in 2017/2018 were really winnable for Republicans so definitely the Florida Democrats.

This

I think the last winnable race for the VA GOP was probably the 2014 Senate Race, the fundamentals are just too against them now.

On the other hand I think most races have been winnable for the FL Dems, at anyrate in 2018 the FL Dems threw away both the Senate race and Gubernatorial election by nominating Gillum for Governor. Had Gwen Graham been the nominee, the Democrats would have won the Governor's Mansion back and they would have held the Senate seat (Gillum dragged Nelson down imo).

This.

Florida's Democratic Party has become very much a regional party.  It boasts very few elected officials outside of "South Florida" (the big Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties), the Orlando area (Orange and Osceola Counties), the immediate Tallahassee area (Leon County, but not really the neighboring counties) and Gainesville (Alachua County).  Hillsborough County (Tampa) is still Democratic, but it has a large GOP minority. 

There are areas where Democrats have carried.  Pinellas (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) and Duval (Jacksonville) counties are swing counties, but Pinellas still has mostly Republican legislators, and Duval's Democrats are mostly black (although Gillum DID carry Duval County, showing that nominating a black candidate to energize minorities isn't an entirely ridiculous strategy).  There are some counties that are slowly trending Democratic (Manatee, Sarasota, and Seminole Counties come to mind), but these counties don't produce Democratic elected officials.

In many ways, the Democrats are where Florida's GOP was in 1976; they were competitive at the Presidential level, but had a depleted stable of candidates and were not likely to take over state government anytime soon.  The Democratic candidate may well carry Florida in 2020, but it is hard to see either Rubio or Scott be dumped as Senator, and DeSantis looks like a strong bet for re-election at this point.  None of that, however, precludes the Democrats from regaining lost ground in the Legislature, or in local offices.  That's the hard work that Florida's Democrats seem to have slacked at.  The number of close LEGISLATIVE races they've lost, even with decent candidates, is the most baffling aspect of Florida's politics.

Why do you think the FL Dems do so badly in those down ballot races? Like for the legislature and all?

[LoneStarDem]

The FL Dems are obviously incompetent or WEAKLINGS.

I'm going to assume FL Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) is the de-facto leader of the FL Dems at this point.

[John Dule]

The CA GOP seems to have no idea how to moderate, even in the most liberal state in the union.

But easily the VA GOP.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Almost all of the races that Democrats have lost in Florida have been winnable. None of the Virginia races in 2017/2018 were really winnable for Republicans so definitely the Florida Democrats.

This

I think the last winnable race for the VA GOP was probably the 2014 Senate Race, the fundamentals are just too against them now.

On the other hand I think most races have been winnable for the FL Dems, at anyrate in 2018 the FL Dems threw away both the Senate race and Gubernatorial election by nominating Gillum for Governor. Had Gwen Graham been the nominee, the Democrats would have won the Governor's Mansion back and they would have held the Senate seat (Gillum dragged Nelson down imo).

This.

Florida's Democratic Party has become very much a regional party.  It boasts very few elected officials outside of "South Florida" (the big Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties), the Orlando area (Orange and Osceola Counties), the immediate Tallahassee area (Leon County, but not really the neighboring counties) and Gainesville (Alachua County).  Hillsborough County (Tampa) is still Democratic, but it has a large GOP minority. 

There are areas where Democrats have carried.  Pinellas (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) and Duval (Jacksonville) counties are swing counties, but Pinellas still has mostly Republican legislators, and Duval's Democrats are mostly black (although Gillum DID carry Duval County, showing that nominating a black candidate to energize minorities isn't an entirely ridiculous strategy).  There are some counties that are slowly trending Democratic (Manatee, Sarasota, and Seminole Counties come to mind), but these counties don't produce Democratic elected officials.

In many ways, the Democrats are where Florida's GOP was in 1976; they were competitive at the Presidential level, but had a depleted stable of candidates and were not likely to take over state government anytime soon.  The Democratic candidate may well carry Florida in 2020, but it is hard to see either Rubio or Scott be dumped as Senator, and DeSantis looks like a strong bet for re-election at this point.  None of that, however, precludes the Democrats from regaining lost ground in the Legislature, or in local offices.  That's the hard work that Florida's Democrats seem to have slacked at.  The number of close LEGISLATIVE races they've lost, even with decent candidates, is the most baffling aspect of Florida's politics.

Why do you think the FL Dems do so badly in those down ballot races? Like for the legislature and all?

1.  Partisan gerrymandering.

2.  The fact that large concentrations of minority voters in urban areas makes it easier to create minority-heavy districts that leave the rest heavily Republican.

3.  Low taxes and "tough on crime" appeals still work well in Florida, and those issues favor the GOP.

4.  New retirees to Florida are less likely to be former union workers.

[smoltchanov]

None of that, however, precludes the Democrats from regaining lost ground in the Legislature, or in local offices.  That's the hard work that Florida's Democrats seem to have slacked at.  The number of close LEGISLATIVE races they've lost, even with decent candidates, is the most baffling aspect of Florida's politics.

I suppose - you exclude Panhandle in your (slightly optimistic for Democrats) reasoning. Besides Leon (government + university) and Gadsden (Blacks) counties Democrats have nothing to brag about in this region of state, though some local offices in many counties are still held by Democrats (surely - mostly conservative, or, in some cases - Black). Even recently competitive (Jefferson a.o.)  counties become more and more polarized (as whites began to vote overwhelmingly for Republicans on state and even local levels), while other, where Democrats were competitive on local level quite recently, became "Republicans only" (Holmes, Suwannee, Washington, a.o.). I don't even mention "the Redneck Riviera" area (Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Gulf), which is rather quickly growing, and where Democrats seem to be nonexistent. There will be an election in the "most Dixie state legislative district in Florida"(and one of the few in the nation) - HD7, soon, and Democratic candidate from this predominantely rural and conservative district is a young liberal-leaning person from Tallahassee. What are his chances? Zero. I frequently mention the Liberty county in Panhandle as "most Dixie county in the nation" with all-D local officials, but even there Democratic registration majority fell from 75-19 to about 69-24 in few years (it was over 80% Democratic about 10 years ago), and, what's most important, even in non-presidential races, Democratic percentage fell precipitously: Bill Nelson (supposedly - "moderate" and a sort of icon in Florida politics for many years) got only 23.34% there in 2018 (he narrowly won Liberty, getting 49.03%, in 2012, and Alex Sink won it too in 2010). In 10 years it will be Republican as well...

Of course, Democrats may compensate that losses in some suburbs and on Gold coast, but that strategy has it's own obvious limits too.. Many retires are conservative-leaning, many Cubans are still Republican (and may stay that way because of Catholic and "macho" traditions, which are not very compatible with main principles of modern Democratic party), and so on... Right now Republican Panhandle advantage is almost equal to Miami-Dade Democratic one, and who knows - is it a limit or no... The only positive (for Democrats) thing i observe there - besides "Redneck Riviera" counties of the Panhandle grow slowly, if at all....

P.S. Of course - we speak about 7-8% (not counting Duval, 11-13 - with it) of Florida population, but - without Panhandle Florida would vote for Gore in 2000, Nelson/Gillum in 2018, and so on...

[ajc0918]

In 2018 Florida Dems flipped 5 state house seats and 1 state senate seat and currently hold their largest state legislature delegation since 1999 and 1997, respectively. Additionally, Dems hold the highest percent of U.S. House seats in Florida since 1993 (as a % of total seats) with a 14-13 split in favor of the GOP.

Dems are also consolidating their support in cities via local elections. I think moving forward Dems will largely lean on their big city mayors including former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, St. Pete Mayor Rick Kriseman, and newly sworn in Tampa Mayor Jane Castor. There are also several democratic state house reps. that seem promising.

The problem is demographically, the suburbs are growing at the same pace as the big cities in many places, so there isn't a solid shift in either party's direction.