OR-Gov: Kitzhaber and Kulongoski Neck and Neck for Dem Gubernatorial Nomination.

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To answer a few questions here from someone in the region.

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?

By an ex-governor at that...?

Because Kulongoski is quite unpopular.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

Kitzhaber was a popular governor as far as I know, although it was before my time.  Kulongoski, on the other hand, has done little successful to remedy Oregon's mediocre economy.  Despite being a wealthier than average state, Oregon - like Washington - has some of the highest rates of unemployment in the country.  Kulongoski is doing surprisingly poorly considering he hasn't suffered any significant scandal, though.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

and why are both last names hard to pronounce?

Haha.  This certainly can't beat the potential 2006 Illinois Gubernatoral race of Blagojevich v. Rauschenberger.

Kitzhaber should run against Gordon Smith for Senate in 2008.  He is known as a leading voice on health care issues and could contribute a lot.

If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.

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If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.

Oh please!! Oregon is a fairly strong blue state and Smith has voted in lockstep with Bush/Rove/Delay. A former popular governor in a presidential year with strong turnout would give him a very competitive race!

You can't always go by past results. I'm sure Smith's last challenger was not very strong.

I'm completely aware you can't go by past results.  Smith's challenger was decent.  Not great, but decent.

Oregon is not a "blue state" - we need to drop that term.  It leans Democratic on both national and state levels.  It isn't a "blue state"; like most every state, it is more purple than anything.

Smith has an approval surplus of over 20 points.  That's easily enough to beat even a semi-popular former Governor.  It might be worth the Dem's trouble if Kulongoski didn't have an approval deficit of five points.  He is in much more danger than Smith would be if the former Governor run.

Smith is not nearly as conservative as you make him out to be.  He is rather liberal on gay rights and the death penalty.  He votes less party line than most Republicans.

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Oregon is not a "blue state" - we need to drop that term.  It leans Democratic on both national and state levels.

It isn't going to vote for a Republican anytime soon and it's not really considered a swing state.

State and national levels are different - the Oregon legislature was in the GOP's control prior to 2004, I believe, although I'm not sure about that.  Why aren't you sure?  Kulongoski was more popular in 2000 than he is now, yet barely won.

  Smith has an approval surplus of over 20 points.  That's easily enough to beat even a semi-popular former Governor.

Smith's approval rating hovers between 50% and 55%, which is hardly unbeatable in a Democratic-leaning state, especially against a popular former governor who would have no problem with name recogntion. The Democratic party would be doing itself a huge disservice if it doesn't seriously challenge Smith in 2008.

Yet the 2006 Gubernatoral race is more important, which is my assertion.

Smith is not nearly as conservative as you make him out to be.  He is rather liberal on gay rights and the death penalty.

Those are very much secondary issues that are little more than distractions from core issues. On core economic issues, Smith is extremely right-wing and votes in lockstep with the Bush administration.

Smith's tax votes are actually generally moderate.  Smith is economically conservative, yeah, but socially he is pretty moderate.

He votes less party line than most Republicans.

Maybe you're right. He only votes party line 95% as opposed to the Santorum wing, which votes with Bush/Rove/Delay 99% of the time.

The ACU gives him 78, which is hardly Bush-like.

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I'm afraid I don't think simply saying 'I think he will win" is good enough.  I do not share your absolute certainty, and would rather avoid a nasty defeat in what should be a relatively safe state in exchange for a toss-up at a Senate seat.