OR-Gov: Kitzhaber and Kulongoski Neck and Neck for Dem Gubernatorial Nomination.
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  OR-Gov: Kitzhaber and Kulongoski Neck and Neck for Dem Gubernatorial Nomination.
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Author Topic: OR-Gov: Kitzhaber and Kulongoski Neck and Neck for Dem Gubernatorial Nomination.  (Read 3338 times)
Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« on: November 17, 2005, 11:14:41 AM »

From Riley Research Associates:

Democrats
In our last poll (August 2005), incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski had a decisive edge, well ahead of other Democrat challengers. However, while a large proportion of Democrats is undecided (36 percent), the possible entry of former governor John Kitzhaber has radically changed the Democrats’ primary election landscape:

• Kitzhaber (29 percent) and Kulongoski (27 percent) are statistically tied.

Republicans
Former Party Chair Kevin Mannix continues to lead; yet most Republicans (53 percent) say they are keeping their options open:
• Mannix has the support of 29 percent of Republicans
• Jason Atkinson and Ron Saxton each have 6 percent

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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2005, 12:53:59 AM »

Whoa, I had no idea Kitzhaber was considering another run!

He easily won his last election. He might be a better choice for the Democrats...
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2005, 09:56:06 AM »

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2005, 11:08:32 AM »

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?

By an ex-governor at that...?
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2005, 12:13:25 PM »

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2005, 12:20:26 PM »

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

and why are both last names hard to pronounce?
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2005, 12:22:30 PM »

And where the %#$# is Bob when you need him?
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ATFFL
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2005, 12:24:32 PM »

That is one set of names.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2005, 04:57:22 PM »

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?

He's not, and I don't expect him to be.
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2005, 04:59:01 PM »

Kitzhaber should run against Gordon Smith for Senate in 2008.  He is known as a leading voice on health care issues and could contribute a lot.
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Alcon
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2005, 05:54:40 PM »

To answer a few questions here from someone in the region.

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?

By an ex-governor at that...?

Because Kulongoski is quite unpopular.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

Kitzhaber was a popular governor as far as I know, although it was before my time.  Kulongoski, on the other hand, has done little successful to remedy Oregon's mediocre economy.  Despite being a wealthier than average state, Oregon - like Washington - has some of the highest rates of unemployment in the country.  Kulongoski is doing surprisingly poorly considering he hasn't suffered any significant scandal, though.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

and why are both last names hard to pronounce?

Haha.  This certainly can't beat the potential 2006 Illinois Gubernatoral race of Blagojevich v. Rauschenberger.

Kitzhaber should run against Gordon Smith for Senate in 2008.  He is known as a leading voice on health care issues and could contribute a lot.

If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2005, 07:32:24 PM »

If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.

Oh please!! Oregon is a fairly strong blue state and Smith has voted in lockstep with Bush/Rove/Delay. A former popular governor in a presidential year with strong turnout would give him a very competitive race!

You can't always go by past results. I'm sure Smith's last challenger was not very strong.
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Alcon
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2005, 08:01:02 PM »

If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.

Oh please!! Oregon is a fairly strong blue state and Smith has voted in lockstep with Bush/Rove/Delay. A former popular governor in a presidential year with strong turnout would give him a very competitive race!

You can't always go by past results. I'm sure Smith's last challenger was not very strong.

I'm completely aware you can't go by past results.  Smith's challenger was decent.  Not great, but decent.

Oregon is not a "blue state" - we need to drop that term.  It leans Democratic on both national and state levels.  It isn't a "blue state"; like most every state, it is more purple than anything.

Smith has an approval surplus of over 20 points.  That's easily enough to beat even a semi-popular former Governor.  It might be worth the Dem's trouble if Kulongoski didn't have an approval deficit of five points.  He is in much more danger than Smith would be if the former Governor run.

Smith is not nearly as conservative as you make him out to be.  He is rather liberal on gay rights and the death penalty.  He votes less party line than most Republicans.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2005, 08:14:13 PM »

Oregon is not a "blue state" - we need to drop that term.  It leans Democratic on both national and state levels.

It isn't going to vote for a Republican anytime soon and it's not really considered a swing state.

  Smith has an approval surplus of over 20 points.  That's easily enough to beat even a semi-popular former Governor.

Smith's approval rating hovers between 50% and 55%, which is hardly unbeatable in a Democratic-leaning state, especially against a popular former governor who would have no problem with name recogntion. The Democratic party would be doing itself a huge disservice if it doesn't seriously challenge Smith in 2008.

Smith is not nearly as conservative as you make him out to be.  He is rather liberal on gay rights and the death penalty.

Those are very much secondary issues that are little more than distractions from core issues. On core economic issues, Smith is extremely right-wing and votes in lockstep with the Bush administration.

He votes less party line than most Republicans.

Maybe you're right. He only votes party line 95% as opposed to the Santorum wing, which votes with Bush/Rove/Delay 99% of the time.
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2005, 08:23:14 PM »

Oregon is not a "blue state" - we need to drop that term.  It leans Democratic on both national and state levels.

It isn't going to vote for a Republican anytime soon and it's not really considered a swing state.

State and national levels are different - the Oregon legislature was in the GOP's control prior to 2004, I believe, although I'm not sure about that.  Why aren't you sure?  Kulongoski was more popular in 2000 than he is now, yet barely won.

  Smith has an approval surplus of over 20 points.  That's easily enough to beat even a semi-popular former Governor.

Smith's approval rating hovers between 50% and 55%, which is hardly unbeatable in a Democratic-leaning state, especially against a popular former governor who would have no problem with name recogntion. The Democratic party would be doing itself a huge disservice if it doesn't seriously challenge Smith in 2008.

Yet the 2006 Gubernatoral race is more important, which is my assertion.

Smith is not nearly as conservative as you make him out to be.  He is rather liberal on gay rights and the death penalty.

Those are very much secondary issues that are little more than distractions from core issues. On core economic issues, Smith is extremely right-wing and votes in lockstep with the Bush administration.

Smith's tax votes are actually generally moderate.  Smith is economically conservative, yeah, but socially he is pretty moderate.

He votes less party line than most Republicans.

Maybe you're right. He only votes party line 95% as opposed to the Santorum wing, which votes with Bush/Rove/Delay 99% of the time.

The ACU gives him 78, which is hardly Bush-like.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2005, 05:41:11 AM »

Please refrain from using that ultimate proof of a feeble mind, BLUESTATEREDSTATELOL!!!!1111 unless you want BAD THINGS to happen to you.
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socaldem
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2005, 09:05:32 AM »

To answer a few questions here from someone in the region.

why is an incumbent governor being challenged in the primary?

By an ex-governor at that...?

Because Kulongoski is quite unpopular.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

Kitzhaber was a popular governor as far as I know, although it was before my time.  Kulongoski, on the other hand, has done little successful to remedy Oregon's mediocre economy.  Despite being a wealthier than average state, Oregon - like Washington - has some of the highest rates of unemployment in the country.  Kulongoski is doing surprisingly poorly considering he hasn't suffered any significant scandal, though.

And why is Kitzhaber so popular while Kulongoski is in such trouble?

and why are both last names hard to pronounce?

Haha.  This certainly can't beat the potential 2006 Illinois Gubernatoral race of Blagojevich v. Rauschenberger.

Kitzhaber should run against Gordon Smith for Senate in 2008.  He is known as a leading voice on health care issues and could contribute a lot.

If he wants to get crushed with vigour.  Smith lost only Multnomah County.  The Democrats should work on defending a very close Gubernatoral race instead of going for a pie in the sky 2008 Senate race.


It seems to  me that Kulongowski's problem is that he's more of a working class Democrat whose appeal is more to the dwindling numbers of rural oregon Democrats rather than one who typifies the more "progressive" (i.e. socially liberal, economically moderate) politics of the state party and the state as a whole.  Thus, while he may have trouble in the primary, I think he doesn't have much to worry about if he's to face a right-wing opponent like Ken Maddox...

I might be wrong about my analysis of Kulongowski, but it seems like his situation is not dissimilar to unpopular Maine Governor John Baldacci who represented the Northern Maine (socially conservative, leftish economically) congressional district before becoming governor of a state whose Democrats prefer the opposite...

If either Kulongowski or Baldacci faces third party challenges from the left, they should be worried.... and actually I think Baldacci may be in more trouble because Maine republicans seem to be better organized than oregon's GOP and may nominate a moderate in the mold of Snowe/Collins.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2005, 09:58:34 AM »

State and national levels are different - the Oregon legislature was in the GOP's control prior to 2004, I believe, although I'm not sure about that.

Oregon is Democratic-leaning on the national/federal level.


Bush and the national Republicans are really hurting the Republican party and the Kerry states are only getting more strongly Democratic. Democrats can thank President Bush for this.

Yet the 2006 Gubernatoral race is more important, which is my assertion.

Not in my opinion. And I still think Kulongoski will win re-election.

The ACU gives him 78, which is hardly Bush-like.

That's still very conservative, and way to the right of the average Oregon voter.
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Alcon
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2005, 03:29:29 PM »

I'm afraid I don't think simply saying 'I think he will win" is good enough.  I do not share your absolute certainty, and would rather avoid a nasty defeat in what should be a relatively safe state in exchange for a toss-up at a Senate seat.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2005, 11:17:13 AM »

didnt one of oregon's ex governors get in trouble for banging a 14 year old?
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Frodo
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2005, 11:36:09 AM »

As bad as things are, Kulongoski probably has a better chance of hanging on to the governor's mansion than Christine Gregoire has to hers. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2005, 05:54:36 PM »

didnt one of oregon's ex governors get in trouble for banging a 14 year old?

Yes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Goldschmidt

heh, not the only Oregonian politican to get himself into sex-related troubles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Packwood
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2005, 09:01:56 PM »

didnt one of oregon's ex governors get in trouble for banging a 14 year old?

Yes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Goldschmidt

heh, not the only Oregonian politican to get himself into sex-related troubles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Packwood

i always liked packwood.

back in the day, oregon had two damn good senators...packwood and hatfield.  now of course, they only have one good one.
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Yates
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2005, 10:18:49 PM »

I would say that Kitzhaber would be likely to run if polls showed him winning solidly.  However, because the poll shows such a close margin between Kitzhaber and Kulongoski, it is unlikely that the former would wish to wage a primary challenge, and instead devote his resources to helping his successor win re-election.
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bgwah
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« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2005, 01:15:57 AM »

didnt one of oregon's ex governors get in trouble for banging a 14 year old?

Yes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Goldschmidt

heh, not the only Oregonian politican to get himself into sex-related troubles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Packwood

i always liked packwood.

back in the day, oregon had two damn good senators...packwood and hatfield.  now of course, they only have one good one.

I like how Packwood defeated one of only two senators to oppose the Vietnam War, because that senator predicted it would turn into...well, what it did turn into! haha. Smiley
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