Anyone think Trump/his campaign is getting far too confident?

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen reports that they consider states like WI and PA "pretty safe", and are planning to focus on map expansion.

[ElectionsGuy]

I have seen reports that they consider states like WI and PA "pretty safe", and are planning to focus on map expansion.

If that's true, then yeah they're way overconfident and they'll lose because of it. They only have 3-4 other winnable states besides what he won in 2016 anyway.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I have seen reports that they consider states like WI and PA "pretty safe", and are planning to focus on map expansion.

If that's true, then yeah they're way overconfident and they'll lose because of it. They only have 3-4 other winnable states besides what he won in 2016 anyway.

If the Trump campaign operates like it's still 2016, they will get clobbered.

I'm not sure what their electoral strategy is, but this is their message:

Trump is an ordinary guy representing ordinary folks like you. He's fighting a pitched battle against insane extremists who hate him and everything he does - and by extension, hates you, too. The insane, extremist Democrats hate you because you're white, hate you because you work for a living, hate you because you're religious, hate you because you want to defend yourself against criminals, and hate you because you're not a cool city dweller like them. They tried to commit treason and unseat your President, and if they get their way, they will destroy all the magnificent progress the President has made, and unravel his economic miracle. These people control the media, and Hollywood, and SNL, and they'll ruin everything if they win.

If they think they can expand the map with that, they are delusional.

[Sestak]

Projecting confidence at this stage is probably good for him regardless of  their actual outlook.

[Senator Spark]

He should be confident as an incumbent in this race. But thinking he can win New York or California is just foolish.

[Xing]

Trump is always overconfident about everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll lose.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I sure hope so. When Trump gets overconfident he makes mistakes. He does things like talking about taking away peoples' health care or going all-in on child separation again. Him doubling down on issues like those make alienation of certain swing voters more likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Mitch is leader of Senate under Trump, he is clear from being removed from office.  By far, his son, Trump Jr, is the most polarizing figure, in American politics, today.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

if he's serious about trying to flip Virginia, then yes.  He has no chance in VA or CO, and probably NH and NV for that matter although those arent as far gone.

He needs to play defensive in the big 3 and AZ if he wants to win in 2020.

[John Dule]

Trump could win Virginia, and Atlas is insanely overconfident about that state's position in the D column. Clinton dropped tons of money into that state, chose a Virginian for her running mate, and won it by just over five points. I would give Trump a solid 5-10% chance of winning it, and it could turn back into a swing state in 2024 if he loses to a Democrat who turns out to be unpopular.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Trump could win Virginia, and Atlas is insanely overconfident about that state's position in the D column. Clinton dropped tons of money into that state, chose a Virginian for her running mate, and won it by just over five points. I would give Trump a solid 5-10% chance of winning it, and it could turn back into a swing state in 2024 if he loses to a Democrat who turns out to be unpopular.

Even if say.. Rubio or Jeb won in 2016 he wouldn't win VA in 2020 due to how left the DC suburbs have shifted (although it would be close).  Trump is just a poor fit for the state (and western states too).

Trump trying to campaign there is a waste of time.  It's gone from the GOP.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Well if he starts campaigning in places like VA/CO/NM in October of 2020, yeah, he will probably lose. His team is not completely retarded though so I wouldn’t expect them to operate in this way. He’d be well served by campaigning in NH and MN, and probably Maine and Nevada. The first two were statistically insignificant from the results in WI/Mi/PA and very easily could have gone to him in 2016. And NH and ME could be home to high profile Senate races, so it would behoove both Presidential nominees to perform as best they can in those states.

This.  Trump's biggest problem is he'll likely face the strongest Dem candidate (Biden) and that will narrow his path to winning considerably. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Young people dont want Biden, he's not the nominee, yet, but Mueller should of indicted Trump Jr

[John Dule]

Trump could win Virginia, and Atlas is insanely overconfident about that state's position in the D column. Clinton dropped tons of money into that state, chose a Virginian for her running mate, and won it by just over five points. I would give Trump a solid 5-10% chance of winning it, and it could turn back into a swing state in 2024 if he loses to a Democrat who turns out to be unpopular.

Even if say.. Rubio or Jeb won in 2016 he wouldn't win VA in 2020 due to how left the DC suburbs have shifted (although it would be close).  Trump is just a poor fit for the state (and western states too).

Trump trying to campaign there is a waste of time.  It's gone from the GOP.

Virginia is more competitive than Ohio at this point. And I still think Ohio is at least semi-competitive.