Percentage chance of Democratic control of the US Senate after 2020?

[SnowLabrador]

Place your bets a year and a half out.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

75%

[Politician]

25%

[S019]

10%

It's currently 53-47

You need 3 + the White House


-AL  (even with Moore, this is Lean R, without Moore, it's Safe R)

So now you need 4 GOP seats
+CO (Lean D)
+AZ (Tossup/Tilt R, McSally is gone, if the Dem wins AZ)
+NC (Tilt/Lean R, gettable, but requires D candidate winning NC, which is unlikely)
+GA (Lean R, if Dems do win the WH, the runoff could favor Reps, because GA voters want to send a check on the incoming President)

Very tough, but doable in a perfect storm

[GeorgiaModerate]

10%

It's currently 53-47

You need 3 + the White House


-AL  (even with Moore, this is Lean R, without Moore, it's Safe R)

So now you need 4 GOP seats
+CO (Lean D)
+AZ (Tossup/Tilt R, McSally is gone, if the Dem wins AZ)
+NC (Tilt/Lean R, gettable, but requires D candidate winning NC, which is unlikely)
+GA (Lean R, if Dems do win the WH, the runoff could favor Reps, because GA voters want to send a check on the incoming President)

Very tough, but doable in a perfect storm

Don't forget Maine.  Collins is certainly not invulnerable, which gives the Democrats one more possibility.  But I agree with your general premise; the Democrats need to have almost everything break their way.  While that kind of thing can happen (*cough* WI-MI-PA 2016), it's still a long shot.  I'd call it around 25% at this point, but of course a lot can happen in the next 18 months to change the political environment.

[Beet]

If Joe Manchin runs for governor the Democrats are knocked down to 45.

[Orser67]

It's a real uphill climb that probably requires at least a 4 point victory in the presidential election. I'll say 20%, but I can certainly see the argument that that's generous. A lot depends on how you feel about the presidential race.

[progressive85]

The Democrats may not control the Senate for a long, long time.  The earliest possible seems like it would be 2023 for Donald Trump's last two years in office.  North Carolina and Wisconsin will be open seats in 2022 and they can win both with the right candidates.  Neither party is going to have a filibuster-proof majority any time soon.

[Xing]

About 20%. They've got many potential pick-ups, but they're underdogs in most of them, and Alabama is pretty much a guaranteed loss.

[Young Conservative]

About 10%. It requires a LOT of things to go right and leaves room for nothing to go wrong.

[Pericles]

30% seems reasonable, and 50-50 is possible in an ordinary unexceptional Democratic win. There are a lot of GOP vulnerabilities but only CO is actually got the Dems favored though AZ may be a pure tossup at this stage.

[TML]

If Democrats win the White House, I'll given them a 60-70% chance of taking the Senate along with it.

If Republicans retain the White House, I'll lower those chances down to 20-30%.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Maybe 25%.


The math definitely works out, but it's not going to be easy.

[Zaybay]

Id say 33%.

The Dems have a lot of opportunities, but many of them favor the Republicans. If the Dems can get a great 2020, the senate is likely to fall. Getting that great 2020 is the issue.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

5%

[smoltchanov]

10%. 2022 may be another matter

[Frenchrepublican]

Between 15% and 25% depending on who is the democratic presidential nominee

[UncleSam]

If the Dem presidential candidate wins NC, AZ, IA, and GA then Dems win the senate. Lower chance of winning it if Dem wins between 2-3 of those. Slim chance otherwise.

So probably like 20%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

45% chance with AZ and CO as possible pickups and NC/KY/TX. AL will be safe D should Moore get nominated

[smoltchanov]

AL will be safe D should Moore get nominated

Very optimistic. Too optimistic, i would say...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moore is polarizing

[Person Man]

I expect that the Republicans will actually gain one or two if things go right for them but that the Democrats will do very well and take the senate by a comfortable margin if things start to sputter.

[smoltchanov]

Moore is polarizing

Absolutely. But Jones is way too liberal for today's Alabama. It will be close, but in Presidential year Moore would be favored...

[😥]

About 20%. If they will win White House, than they need to gain 3 seats in the Senate, so
R gain AL (Safe R, Lean R with Moore)
D gain CO (Likely D, much closer to Safe D)
D gain AZ (Tossup, closer to Lean D)
D gain NC (Pure Tossup)
It is very optimistic scenario for Dems, but Senate will be 51-49 Republican

Now I see very little chance (about 5-10%), that Dem nominee will win in Georgia, I am sure, that Dems will lose Montana (without Bullock, Democrat winning Montana is unrealistic) and Maine (Susan Collins is still popular and Maine isn't safe blue state)

[smoltchanov]

Moore is polarizing

Absolutely. But Jones is way too liberal for today's Alabama. It will be close, but in Presidential year Moore would be favored...

Stop driveling about insufficient moderate-ness. Jones could vote to the right of Jim Inhofe and he’d still lose a general election in Alabama.

Stop telling me, what i must (or must not) do pls, and f**k off.... Right now it's really so, but Democratic party must blame only itself for that...