ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Senator Incitatus]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

[tagimaucia]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Don't polls still show that voters think the election is either lean Trump or a tossup?  If at this point, people aren't convinced that Biden is a shoe-in, I don't see how that's going to change in the next few weeks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is there any actual evidence for a #CollinsComeback or is it just people saying "it could happen" on Atlas in a bunch of posts so it becomes conventional wisdom?

When I look through this thread, all I see is anecdotes and retelling of some Collins ads.

Has Susan Collins improved on her poor favorability rating?  No.

Has Susan Collins led Gideon in any polls?  No.

Has Susan Collins fundraising been anything noteworthy?  No.

Have there been any events to change the fundamentals of the race?  No.

So Susan Collins got some endorsements and ran some ads where constituents talked about the nice things she did for them.  Good for her.  That's what every incumbent does.  Blanche Lincoln and Claire McCaskill did the exact same thing and got blown out of the water.

The voters have turned against Susan Collins because she's gained a reputation as a spineless Trump stooge.  Furthermore, she is being outspent by Gideon, who remains a strong candidate.  Unless something major happens to change those fundamentals,  this race will continue to be Likely D and Gideon will continue to lead Collins by 3-7 points.

She's making a come back because my gut feeling says so!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?

[GALeftist]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

[Senator Incitatus]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?

It happened in 2016. Just because some media outlets report(ed) on potential pitfalls for the leading candidate didn't mean they weren't also saying, "Hillary/Biden could win Georgia/Texas/South Carolina!" Voters are actually be more sensitive to the latter, in my opinion, as the "horse race" narrative is baked in; deviations from that narrative are what actually catch the ear.

Also, to be clear, I still find Gideon the favorite. I'm just analyzing Collins's potential strength. I'm noticing a consistently nasty habit on here (not singling you out and not sure if it's happened in years past) of conflating any discussion of losing Republican candidates' chances with a belief that candidate can/will win or "doomerism" or "concern trolling." Maybe that's why everyone here is in hair-on-fire mode every time there's a Republican upset. Just needed to put that disclaimer in.

[UWS]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

It will depend on whether Trump wins ME-02 and on Lisa Savage's performance. In effect she still has time to take progressive votes from Gideon. Savage supports Medicare for All, Gideon doesn't. If Savage can do so well, she can hand victory to Collins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

Then it doesn't exist. Most media probably won't abandon the horse-race narrative and even if the conventional wisdom becomes that Biden is likely to win, the kinds of voters preparing to place a check on his presidency would think twice (they were probably the ones doing the same thing in 2016) because of enduring superstitions about Trump being inevitable. If an elections forum like this is full of doomers w.r.t. Biden's chances, what do you think the even less informed general public is like?

It happened in 2016. Just because some media outlets report(ed) on potential pitfalls for the leading candidate didn't mean they weren't also saying, "Hillary/Biden could win Georgia/Texas/South Carolina!" Voters are actually be more sensitive to the latter, in my opinion, as the "horse race" narrative is baked in; deviations from that narrative are what actually catch the ear.

Also, to be clear, I still find Gideon the favorite. I'm just analyzing Collins's potential strength. I'm noticing a consistently nasty habit on here (not singling you out and not sure if it's happened in years past) of conflating any discussion of losing Republican candidates' chances with a belief that candidate can/will win or "doomerism" or "concern trolling." Maybe that's why everyone here is in hair-on-fire mode every time there's a Republican upset. Just needed to put that disclaimer in.

I think Collins has a decent chance and by "doomerism" I was referring not to MESEN takes but the tendency to have a 5+ page thread when a non-Trafalgar poll shows a close race in any one of AZ/FL/MI/MN/NC/PA/WI.

I also think this is not where her chance emerges from. The voters likely to split their tickets in this way are more likely than not to be the same kind of ticket-splitters from 2016 and are probably feeling once bitten, twice shy. Collins' path relies more on Democratic voters prepared to split their tickets even in the event of a Trump win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

It will depend on whether Trump wins ME-02 and on Lisa Savage's performance. In effect she still has time to take progressive votes from Gideon. Savage supports Medicare for All, Gideon doesn't. If Savage can do so well, she can hand victory to Collins.

She can't because of RCV.

[Calthrina950]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Once again, the vast majority of voters think that Trump will win. I seriously doubt that this will affect that many voters, especially in Maine.

It will depend on whether Trump wins ME-02 and on Lisa Savage's performance. In effect she still has time to take progressive votes from Gideon. Savage supports Medicare for All, Gideon doesn't. If Savage can do so well, she can hand victory to Collins.

She can't because of RCV.

And Savage has already made clear that she supports Gideon for the second round. And like I've said, I highly doubt that Savage's voters are amendable to voting for Collins. Collins will probably pick up Max Linn's support, since he's closer ideologically to her and isn't the sanest candidate, to put it mildly. That won't be anywhere near enough for her, however, as Linn is polling behind Savage.

[wbrocks67]

Collins's biggest advantage will be a belief that Biden is assured victory and a desire to check the presidency.

This is not going to happen. Voters no longer trust the polls after 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

[SnowLabrador]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

This is one of the reasons why I'm not optimistic about Democrats having the courage to do what is necessary in 2021. The party is moving further and further to the right, albeit far more slowly than the GOP.

To be clear, I'm not saying both parties are the same.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

I actually agree with this. It would prevents parties stalling nominees until they win the senate, and it forces Presidents to nominate someone who senators on the other side would be ok with. Parties aren't going to be keeping seats open forever, especially considering it'll be very hard for either side to get 60 senate seats unless our politics gets a lot less polarizing.

[KaiserDave]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

I mean...if it was upheld I'd be okay with this.

[WD]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

Democrats are spineless cowards. You hate to see it.

[KaiserDave]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

Democrats are spineless cowards. You hate to see it.

I mean, if we could magically resurrect the judicial filibuster and not have it removed, why not? The court would eventually be made up of 9 consensus picks.

[WD]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

Democrats are spineless cowards. You hate to see it.

I mean, if we could magically resurrect the judicial filibuster and not have it removed, why not? The court would eventually be made up of 9 consensus picks.

I personally would prefer they pack the court. If we bring back the filibuster, Republicans will just block any nominee Biden puts forward. They would never support a Democratic appointed Judge.

[SevenEleven]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

I actually agree with this. It would prevents parties stalling nominees until they win the senate, and it forces Presidents to nominate someone who senators on the other side would be ok with. Parties aren't going to be keeping seats open forever, especially considering it'll be very hard for either side to get 60 senate seats unless our politics gets a lot less polarizing.

Lol what. The filibuster was still allowed for SCOTUS nominees when Merrick Garland was nominated. McConnell got rid of it to seat Gorsuch. It's only been 3.5 years how have you guys already forgotten who did this damage?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Ummmm....

https://twitter.com/ESCochrane/status/1316894114781298692

Terrible answer.

[SevenEleven]

How is it a terrible answer? There would be no Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or ACB if we had a filibuster.

Im not a fan of the filibuster but I'm also not a fan of a partisan court.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

How is it a terrible answer? There would be no Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or ACB if we had a filibuster.

Im not a fan of the filibuster but I'm also not a fan of a partisan court.

How would reinstating the filibuster for judicial nominees make things less partisan? Also, get with the times, the Supreme Court IS partisan.

[Cashew]

How is it a terrible answer? There would be no Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or ACB if we had a filibuster.

Im not a fan of the filibuster but I'm also not a fan of a partisan court.

The filibuster was in place when Gorsuch was nominated, but it was pushed aside like a fart in the wind at the slighest inconvenience to Mcconnell.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The filibuster isn't coming back and Gideon knows. This is just a clumsy attempt to appear stately in comparison with "partisan hack" Collins.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1317081982166323200