ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

[Heebie Jeebie]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

[Heebie Jeebie]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

I don't see how that "automatically makes her better than Gideon."

[ProgressiveModerate]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

I don't see how that "automatically makes her better than Gideon."

Well that really troubles me.

[Heebie Jeebie]

ME is a great example of local politics at its best... I’ll be near to see if it puts Susan over the edge though. If it weren’t for McConnel and the senate majority, I could see the argument one could have for voting for her.

What argument would you say there is?

While I respectfully disagree with her strongly on a lot, and have been troubled by her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she did save the ACA, which automatically makes her better than Gideon. The rise of national politics really troubles me as people no longer work for the people that they represent, but instead fear a tweet by the president, and as we well know, a tweet can kill.

Do you think Gideon would have voted to repeal the ACA?

Well I think both sides would’ve voted for the ACA.

I don't see how that "automatically makes her better than Gideon."

Well that really troubles me.

You know what would have really kept the ACA safe?  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.  Too bad Susan Collins was, and always will be, a vote for Leader McConnell. 

[DaleCooper]

I'm nowhere near Maine, but I've also started to get the feeling that Collins has improved her odds or at least stopped the bleeding so to speak. Who knows, though. I feel like this one has been surprisingly underpolled lately.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm nowhere near Maine, but I've also started to get the feeling that Collins has improved her odds or at least stopped the bleeding so to speak. Who knows, though. I feel like this one has been surprisingly underpolled lately.

Glad I’m not the only one who’s felt this (obviously I have nothing to back it up).

[S019]

I'm nowhere near Maine, but I've also started to get the feeling that Collins has improved her odds or at least stopped the bleeding so to speak. Who knows, though. I feel like this one has been surprisingly underpolled lately.

Glad I’m not the only one who’s felt this (obviously I have nothing to back it up).

I mean she was never going to lose by 7+ points, but time isn't on her side. I wouldn't be too shocked if she pulled it off, she surely has better odds than Tillis and probably James, but I'd still think Gideon is the favorite. It honestly depends on how many Biden/Collins voters there are and other than KS and MT, this will be the only race with significant ticket splitting and with both KS and MT tightening nationally, this might in fact end up as the race with the most ticket splitting, though we'll see if that saves her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like when these competitive senate races go through long stretches of little to no polling, people start feeling like Rs chances are improving when they’re really not, and it’s just because polling typically shows good news for Ds (at least this cycle in the senate), but the “hype” from the polls only last a few days before dying off and people freaking out again because they don’t have the reassurance of a poll. IMO her standing has prolly gotten worse recently as the national environment has gotten a few points worse for Trump, Biden’s lead in ME has prolly therefore grown, and now instead of relying on maybe a 6-7 point overperformance, she needs a 10 point over performance, which is a lot harder. Furthermore, the polls suggest KS and MT senate converging with the national environment prolly means this race is also converging to some degree (though I don’t doubt split ticket voting will be higher in ME-Sen than any other senate race), only making her task more difficult. Only thing going for her is her race hasn’t been nationalized as much recently, but I think this race was nationalized enough early on and people still won’t forgive her for Kavanaugh and impeachment to the point where it helps her very little. Lean if not likely D, though RCV might save her we’ll see

[wbrocks67]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

I was someone who actually thought Collins was favored, but she's missed so many opportunities to try and save herself, and now I feel more confident about this flip than I ever have, oddly enough.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

I was someone who actually thought Collins was favored, but she's missed so many opportunities to try and save herself, and now I feel more confident about this flip than I ever have, oddly enough.

And I don't mean to be rude or flip to anyone, but it's just severely odd that we haven't had *any* good news (tangible, real good news) for Collins aside from some shoddy endorsements no one cares about in a while and suddenly people are all "Collins is gonna win this now!!"

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting to see people thinking Collins is somehow a surefire winner in this race for seemingly no tangible reason whatsoever and considering this race has not really moved much in 6 months. But sure, in the final 3 weeks with an unpopular president, Collins sure has it!

I was someone who actually thought Collins was favored, but she's missed so many opportunities to try and save herself, and now I feel more confident about this flip than I ever have, oddly enough.

And I don't mean to be rude or flip to anyone, but it's just severely odd that we haven't had *any* good news (tangible, real good news) for Collins aside from some shoddy endorsements no one cares about in a while and suddenly people are all "Collins is gonna win this now!!"

That's Atlas. When Democrats aren't reassured by polls for extended periods of times in a race, they start freaking out. Hopefully we get another high quality ME-SEN poll soon because it's been a little while since we last got one.

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Gideon has not announced her $$ fundraising yet. Probably bigger than Greenfield/Cunningham's $28M

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm surprised Gideon has not announced her $$ fundraising yet. Probably bigger than Greenfield/Cunningham's $28M

She has more than enough money as is, so not gonna freak out if she "only" raises $30 million.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Really dislike all this Moderate Hero action for Collins. Democrats can't take this seat for granted. If NC and ME go south they're left with IA and... who knows.

Jared Golden endorse Gideon challenge

(Seriously, some arm-twisting should be considered if private surveys aren't showing a comfortable Gideon lead.)

[Ljube]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

[Mr.Phips]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

[Ljube]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

[Mr.Phips]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

The voters don’t know that Trump won’t be re-elected (like in 2016).  Also, it is pretty clear that Biden will be checked by a right wing Supreme Court even if Dems do take the Senate.

[JG]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Are there that many voters in Maine who are worried about a Democratic dominance considering both district seem very likely to send a Democrat to the House?

[wbrocks67]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Are there that many voters in Maine who are worried about a Democratic dominance considering both district seem very likely to send a Democrat to the House?

narrator: there aren't

[Mr.Phips]

As the Election Day approaches and Biden victory becomes more and more likely, voters who dislike Trump will start to fear a Democratic trifecta. I believe they will break for Collins so that she could be a check on Biden. After all, she has track record of being a moderate and independent thinking and not following the party line.

Lol, she voted for the Trump tax plan and Kavanough.  She only votes against Republican leadership when she is allowed to because they already have the votes.  Republicans have her vote unless she isn’t needed.

If Collins was so independent and such a “moderate hero”, she would be actively working right now to stop ACB’s confirmation.

I am talking about the voters who are concerned about a possible Democratic dominance of the Congress and the Executive. Their natural choice to prevent that from happening is Collins.

Are there that many voters in Maine who are worried about a Democratic dominance considering both district seem very likely to send a Democrat to the House?

Because voters are not going to split a ticket to kick out an incumbent absent a scandal or some other extenuating circumstance.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Is there any actual evidence for a #CollinsComeback or is it just people saying "it could happen" on Atlas in a bunch of posts so it becomes conventional wisdom?

When I look through this thread, all I see is anecdotes and retelling of some Collins ads.

Has Susan Collins improved on her poor favorability rating?  No.

Has Susan Collins led Gideon in any polls?  No.

Has Susan Collins fundraising been anything noteworthy?  No.

Have there been any events to change the fundamentals of the race?  No.

So Susan Collins got some endorsements and ran some ads where constituents talked about the nice things she did for them.  Good for her.  That's what every incumbent does.  Blanche Lincoln and Claire McCaskill did the exact same thing and got blown out of the water.

The voters have turned against Susan Collins because she's gained a reputation as a spineless Trump stooge.  Furthermore, she is being outspent by Gideon, who remains a strong candidate.  Unless something major happens to change those fundamentals,  this race will continue to be Likely D and Gideon will continue to lead Collins by 3-7 points.