ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[NewYorkExpress]

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election handicapper at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has shifted Maine’s hotly contested Senate race toward Democrat Sara Gideon.

The rating change from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic" is the latest sign of trouble for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is among the most vulnerable GOP senators facing reelection this year.

Is Maine a Lean D seat?

[Ferguson97]

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election handicapper at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, has shifted Maine’s hotly contested Senate race toward Democrat Sara Gideon.

The rating change from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic" is the latest sign of trouble for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is among the most vulnerable GOP senators facing reelection this year.

Is Maine a Lean D seat?

It’s Lean at worst at this point

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The debate's feed was cut the last time he did this. He has also apparently protested Gideon's height, so tune in for a wild ride!

https://twitter.com/srq203/status/1310719207521296384

[Indy Texas]

Max Linn Dark Horse 2024 GOP Presidential Campaign?

[Alben Barkley]

Coward Collins strikes again:

https://twitter.com/lindsaywise/status/1311379176797212674

It's like she's actively trying to lose. Trump is down by double digits in her state. She has no incentive to go easy on him, especially over something like that debate, where his performance was almost universally panned as disgraceful and even some of his own supporters admitted it did not go well.

I get that she doesn't want to alienate the diehards too much, but she has even more to lose if she can't convince enough Biden voters to split their tickets.

[DaleCooper]

If Collins wants even a shot at winning at this point then she needs to directly condemn Trump. At the presidential level Maine (at large) is practically a Safe D state at this point and she has no hope if she can't bring herself to realize that and behave accordingly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

[MT Treasurer]

If Collins wants even a shot at winning at this point then she needs to directly condemn Trump. At the presidential level Maine (at large) is practically a Safe D state at this point and she has no hope if she can't bring herself to realize that and behave accordingly.

And lose Trump's base in the process?

[DaleCooper]

If Collins wants even a shot at winning at this point then she needs to directly condemn Trump. At the presidential level Maine (at large) is practically a Safe D state at this point and she has no hope if she can't bring herself to realize that and behave accordingly.

And lose Trump's base in the process?

Well, I guess at this point there's not really any saving her, but had she been truly moderate from the beginning of Trump's administration, then yes, it would be worth that risk in order to maintain the coalition that has made her so successful. Better yet, she would have voted in ways that clearly delineated herself from her party so that she wouldn't have to make last-minute criticisms of the President in order to remind people that she's supposedly a moderate. Also, frankly, who else would the Trump supporters vote for? I guess part of it is just inherent to the struggle of being a senator from a state solidly aligned with the opposing party, but Collins clearly doesn't understand why she's been reelected so many times.

Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and now candidates Bullock and Bollier know how to behave in ways that maintain enough crossover appeal to be competitive without alienating voters of their own party. Collins clearly doesn't know how to do that. For someone who has been around as long as she has (in fact, I think she's been a senator for about 90% of my life), it's shocking to suddenly learn just how unsavvy she is as a politician.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Collins wants even a shot at winning at this point then she needs to directly condemn Trump. At the presidential level Maine (at large) is practically a Safe D state at this point and she has no hope if she can't bring herself to realize that and behave accordingly.

And lose Trump's base in the process?

Well, I guess at this point there's not really any saving her, but had she been truly moderate from the beginning of Trump's administration, then yes, it would be worth that risk in order to maintain the coalition that has made her so successful. Better yet, she would have voted in ways that clearly delineated herself from her party so that she wouldn't have to make last-minute criticisms of the President in order to remind people that she's supposedly a moderate. Also, frankly, who else would the Trump supporters vote for? I guess part of it is just inherent to the struggle of being a senator from a state solidly aligned with the opposing party, but Collins clearly doesn't understand why she's been reelected so many times.

Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and now candidates Bullock and Bollier know how to behave in ways that maintain enough crossover appeal to be competitive without alienating voters of their own party. Collins clearly doesn't know how to do that. For someone who has been around as long as she has (in fact, I think she's been a senator for about 90% of my life), it's shocking to suddenly learn just how unsavvy she is as a politician.

It is easier to maintain crossover support without alienating the base when one's own party is in the opposition. Compromise/"moderation" etc. seems more rational from that perspective to a lot of voters and the agenda one runs on/against is defined more by the other party than figureheads within the same team.

[KaiserDave]

She's done

[MT Treasurer]

Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and now candidates Bullock and Bollier know how to behave in ways that maintain enough crossover appeal to be competitive without alienating voters of their own party. Collins clearly doesn't know how to do that.

Tester and Manchin would have lost if they had been up in a Republican wave year/Clinton midterm or even if Republicans hadn’t proven themselves as laughably incompetent in (not) contesting those races as they did in real life (e.g. by aggressively pushing for Jenkins/Fox, going scorched earth on the incumbents and the Libertarians in MT, not prioritizing NV/AZ/TN/etc. over MT/WV, not allowing Tester/Manchin to define their opponents early, etc.). Bollier would be DOA under a Clinton presidency, and Bullock would be facing an uphill battle after twelve years of Democratic party control in Washington.

The real explanation for the success of Tester/Manchin/Bollier/Bullock and the apparent underperformance of Collins (and Ernst... and Marshall... and Sullivan....) isn’t so much some major disparity in "candidate quality" as it is good/bad luck + the difference between a favorable and an unfavorable national environment.

[Cashew]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

That sounds like a terrible idea. The process by which the Republican base forgives a politican for going against the party is not instantaneous. Has she done something two months before the election she could have duped some guibble Democrats into voting for her, while giving the Republican base enough time to cool off and fall in line. Doing it at the last minute would leave the base foaming at the mouth while appearing more calculated to to swing voters. All the early voting and the disproportionate number of Republicans planning to vote on november 3rd only makes it more likely that any last minute moderate hero stunt would backfire.

[Ogre Mage]

Bye Susan.  Get your golden parachute ready.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah as soon as I saw her "both sides" comment I was flabbergasted. She's terrible at this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since Biden is getting 55 Percent of vote, Collins can lose by 10 pts

[Mr.Phips]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

Hmm is she going to stop the Barrett confirmation?  I think at this point, it’s the only thing that could save her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins can only blame herself, she was the swing state voter in the Kavanaugh nomination and she voted the wrong way, now she isn't and wants Barrett nomination held up. But, she hasn't said how she will vote, herself and Murkowski said it should wait til after election

[ProgressiveModerate]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

Hmm is she going to stop the Barrett confirmation?  I think at this point, it’s the only thing that could save her.

No, but maybe she'll be vocally opposed enough to regain a bit of ground

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins and Murkowski said the confirmation should wait til after the election but they haven't said they won't confirm her, Barrett is a center right politician and I do feel that she will allow votes to be counted like provisional ballots that Bush W signed into law.  But, she will vote against Roe and ACA. But we have Medicaid and Medicare and birth control and adoptions.

Barrett has adopted 4 kids. Even if D's Crt pack, it would still be 6/5 Conservative

[Not Me, Us]

Collins has become the caricature of a moderate hero and the saddest/funniest thing is that she doesn't understand it.

Maybe she's saving the true moderate hero moment for right before the election to try to get a last minute bump. I have a feeling she knows what she's doing.

Hmm is she going to stop the Barrett confirmation?  I think at this point, it’s the only thing that could save her.

No, but maybe she'll be vocally opposed enough to regain a bit of ground

Has early voting started yet in Maine? It might be too little too late.

[kph14]

Susan does not seem to be aware that Biden is in position to win Maine by 15 points

[Landslide Lyndon]

Susan does not seem to be aware that Biden is in position to win Maine by 15 points

She is partying like it's 2008.

[WD]

Susan does not seem to be aware that Biden is in position to win Maine by 15 points

She is partying like it's 2008.

Tbf even in 2008 Obama still won ME by double digits, although back then she was an actual moderate and much more liked.