ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Brittain33]

It’s not like swing voters care about Ratliffe, though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

[Calthrina950]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs if they fall in the minority with 50 seats the Senate will go back to the power sharing agreement in 2000 and McConnell will still have sway until 2022 over appointments.

Rs are gonna lose AZ, CO, ME and NC and prepared for a 50/50 Senate

[Lognog]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

[Calthrina950]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

[ajc0918]

Will Gideon directly receive the $4M raised from that crowd sourced campaign to oust Collins? If so Collins is probably going to be outspent down the stretch considering she is being out raised heavily. While she has a CoH advantage now I can't see that keeping up.

[MT Treasurer]

Collins' path in the Trump era has always been solidifying the Republican base + benefiting from the state's rapid Republican trend + winning over the ~6-8% of Biden voters who are at least considering her due to her long history in the state, remaining goodwill, etc. + making sure Gideon is seen as an even less appealing alternative. Is it easy? No. Is it impossible? I don’t think so (even if it’s a narrow path), and it’s certainly much easier in a state like ME than in any other "blue" state.

Running as an ardent anti-Trumper would be suicidal for obvious reasons.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins' path in the Trump era has always been solidifying the Republican base + benefiting from the state's rapid Republican trend + winning over the ~6-8% of Biden voters who are at least considering her due to her long history in the state, remaining goodwill, etc. + making sure Gideon is seen as an even less appealing alternative. Is it easy? No. Is it impossible? I don’t think so (even if it’s a narrow path), and it’s certainly much easier in a state like ME than in any other "blue" state.

Running as an ardent anti-Trumper would be suicidal for obvious reasons.

If she's seen as less anti-Trump than the Democrat and another pro-Trump candidate is on the ballot driving the president's supporters to the polls, Collins can win via RCV.

[Lognog]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

agreed. Might have seen like the safe option to play the base in a state that Trump did well in, but now look where we are

[QAnonKelly]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

I do agree that she's damned if she does, damned if she doesn't to a certain extent but there has to have been some sort of middle ground she could have taken, at least rhetorically. Her Kavanaugh "I believe someone assaulted her but it wasn't my friend Boofy McBoofface because he told me" was a huge misstep, as was her Trump has learned his lesson bs.  I don't begrudge her position but I have no sympathy for her.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Its truly like she just doesn't care anymore

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258086939846160385

I think she knows she’s SOL at this point and is just being as hackish as she can be.

She keeps shooting herself in the foot over and over again. She should've easily won re-election, but this race is becoming somewhat of a tossup.

This race is a tossup. And even if Collins had been more ardently anti-Trump, she would probably still be in jeopardy, as she would be at great risk of losing the Republican primary.

if she was anti Trump and showed herself as a real independent she would have been respected by voters.

she could lose the primary (although I doubt that) and run as an independent and win with RCV

This much is true, but the point that I'm making is that a Trump Presidency has been a double-sword for her, regardless. And we'll never know what would have happened had she gone down the independent route. She chose a path that will probably result in her defeat.

I do agree that she's damned if she does, damned if she doesn't to a certain extent but there has to have been some sort of middle ground she could have taken, at least rhetorically. Her Kavanaugh "I believe someone assaulted her but it wasn't my friend Boofy McBoofface because he told me" was a huge misstep, as was her Trump has learned his lesson bs.  I don't begrudge her position but I have no sympathy for her.

She sounds stupid but most people don't follow this stuff as closely. She's still favored to win re-eection in my view, but I wouldn't be shocked if she lost

[Brittain33]

While her choice may not have been the optimal one for winning re-election, it is by far the best choice for her plans after the election if she loses. She's playing ball with the people who matter in her world and she'll have a very comfortable retirement surrounded by her Republican friends and colleagues if she loses.

[Ogre Mage]

While her choice may not have been the optimal one for winning re-election, it is by far the best choice for her plans after the election if she loses. She's playing ball with the people who matter in her world and she'll have a very comfortable retirement surrounded by her Republican friends and colleagues if she loses.

Yes.  Collins has sold out but has a cushy gold-plated retirement waiting for her.  She's hardly the first politician to grow out-of-touch after two decades in power.  This well-written article about Collins political situation in Maine was quite revealing:

Cyr says it makes her nervous when she hears that Collins is being financed by billionaires like Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of the investment firm Blackstone Group and also a major Trump donor. And she doesn’t like knowing that, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, there’s been a notable increase on the senator’s reliance on corporate donations—from about 47 percent of her coffers in 2002 to over 61 percent today.

Eye said she also disapproves of Collins’ decision to accept money from corporations like pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, accused of artificially hiking the price of insulin, and the fact that Collins will attend wealthy fundraisers hosted by organizations like the Federalist Society, but the senator refuses constituent requests to host or appear at town hall meetings.

“The beer spoiled while we waited. I literally poured $10,000—all my quarterly profits—down the drain,” White says. “I contacted Susan Collins’ office asking for help. They never replied.”

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/women-maine-susan-collins-135970

[Ye We Can]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Not at 20 percent unemployment

[Ogre Mage]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.  Her approval rating had hovered around that level for much of 2019.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

[S019]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

That poll shows Collins' approvals at less than 70% of Republican, she still has room to grow among Republicans. Also there are sure to be some moderate Democrats who crossover to vote for her. It may not be enough in the end, but can Atlas please stop acting like she's DOA. This reminds of how a lot of people thought that McCaskill was destined to lose by double digits. In any case, I think Collins has hit her floor, she's seen nothing, but negative media coverage for months. She's an institution in the state, and some Democrats will appreciate that, will it be enough, we'll wait to see. But anyone calling this race Likely or Safe for either party or declaring that it's inevitable that Collins wins or Gideon wins is a clear hack. I do have Collins as the favorite in this race, but I have it at Tilt R, to me any rating from Lean R to Lean D is a reasonable assessment of this race.

[Ogre Mage]

You know I could be wrong but this thread really reminds me of the Iowa Senate thread from 2016 when everyone thought Grassley was DOA until he wasn't. Yeah granted Maine isn't Iowa and I doubt Trump will carry Maine statewide but until I see consistent polls showing Gideon with a solid lead I'm gonna assume a bunch of Democrats outside of Portland are gonna vote for Collins like they always do. And Maine isn't as Democratic as it used to be.

Also Collins voting for Ratcliffe isn't gonna make any inpact lmao

Collins enjoyed approval ratings in the 60s during her previous races.  She's fallen like a COVID-19 victim.

A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job Collins has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

That poll shows Collins' approvals at less than 70% of Republican, she still has room to grow among Republicans. Also there are sure to be some moderate Democrats who crossover to vote for her. It may not be enough in the end, but can Atlas please stop acting like she's DOA. This reminds of how a lot of people thought that McCaskill was destined to lose by double digits. In any case, I think Collins has hit her floor, she's seen nothing, but negative media coverage for months. She's an institution in the state, and some Democrats will appreciate that, will it be enough, we'll wait to see. But anyone calling this race Likely or Safe for either party or declaring that it's inevitable that Collins wins or Gideon wins is a clear hack. I do have Collins as the favorite in this race, but I have it at Tilt R, to me any rating from Lean R to Lean D is a reasonable assessment of this race.

I never said that but it is clear she is in a bad position.  As for my own view of the race you can click on my Senate prediction map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs like Rick Scott in FL made it harder for workers to collect unemployment,  20 percent of workers have to live off their relatives and move out of independent living due to fact they arent getting their unemployment checks. 

Latinos and African Americans cant afford to do this due to affordable housing,  but other races which have money can afford relatives to move in their homes

[Calthrina950]

I don't know if this has been posted yet here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/women-maine-susan-collins-135970. This is a very interesting article on the predicament that Collins now finds herself in. Many of the people interviewed in this article are voters who previously supported Collins and once had a high opinion of her, but now believe that she has betrayed Maine and turned her back on her principles. It is because of voters like these that Collins is in serious jeopardy.

[SevenEleven]

Why aren't we getting any polling on this one?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact ME has hardly been polled. The Senate race was only polled in early March due to ST primary. But, Gideo should be fine.
Justin Amash is out, 3rd party candidates can tilt races in ME, MI, AZ and MT

[wbrocks67]

She is getting ratio'ed HARD on Twitter.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A lot of the Trumpers are gonna vote for her anyways, because he told them to. Are they going to vote Gideon?