ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Oryxslayer]

Except ME wasn't consistently trending red before 2016 like VA was consistently trending blue,

Not consistently, but Republicans did really well in 2014.

and Trump's current approvals in the state are really rough.

Yeah, but Trump's current approvals are really rough in every remotely competitive state except maybe FL, where both parties have an absurdly high floor.

States can have massive trends and then reverse them the next cycle, such as MT/ND/IN 2008-2012. ME itself trended 8% R in 2000 and 8% D in 2004. My sig provides an example of trends reversing from one cycle to the next.

This is accurate, but I wouldn’t count on the trends we saw in 2016 coming to a halt in 2020, especially in a state like ME, which is still way more Democratic than its demographics would suggest. That’s not to say that it’s guaranteed to swing or trend Republican again, but I don’t think we’ll see a MT 2008/2012 "redux" there in 2020.

Keep in mind that Maine doesn't have a strong evangelical base, and that matters a lot.
Although yes Maine is going to continue to trend republican

In fact, maine has one unusual demographic - Acadian/Quebecer Americans. A good chunk of Trump swing (not all of it mind you) can be chalked up to these guys who behave very differently from most other white demographics. If these guys snap back to the dems in 2020 maine still will have moved to the right overall, but less so than we think of now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Collins still hasn't announced officially? What are the chances she's not running. That would change the race from Lean R to Likely D.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/leahaskarinam/status/1165983435640516608

[MT Treasurer]

^He knows that Collins will win his district by a landslide, so this is a fairly predictable statement.

[Cashew]

Collins is a popular moderate republican in a state that’s trending R fast. Likely R.

That was under candidate Trump. Whether generic R president Trump does as well has yet to be seen.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/leahaskarinam/status/1165983435640516608

Dems are going to have a real hard time defeating Collins if so many high profile Dems keep gushing over her.

[Epaminondas]

Has Collins still not announced she was running for reelection? When's the deadline?

The sparse polls coming out do seem to favour her. What do Mainers like so much about her when she he light-years from the current governor's position.

[Lambsbread]

Has Collins still not announced she was running for reelection? When's the deadline?

The sparse polls coming out do seem to favour her. What do Mainers like so much about her when she he light-years from the current governor's position.

"nice guy, FF"

[Holmes]

Can someone explain what the thread title means because to me it looks like gibberish

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Can someone explain what the thread title means because to me it looks like gibberish

I think it's supposed to be a play on "I can't really be calling it yet."

[Lambsbread]

Can someone explain what the thread title means because to me it looks like gibberish

A much better title would be "Collins on the rocks"

[Canis]

Can someone explain what the thread title means because to me it looks like gibberish

I think it's supposed to be a play on "I can't really be calling it yet."

yeah it is

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

[pppolitics]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

She's moderate and her approvals are stable, I am looking at other states like NC

[Lambsbread]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

She's moderate and her approvals are stable, I am looking at other states like NC

You've predicted that the Dems will retake the Senate. How do you foresee that happening without ME?

[One Term Floridian]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

She's moderate and her approvals are stable, I am looking at other states like NC

You've predicted that the Dems will retake the Senate. How do you foresee that happening without ME?

I suppose there’s a narrow path to 51 seats without ME:

-AL +CO +AZ +NC +GA(s) +GA

Dems betting everything on winning both GA seats is worrisome, however.

[Lambsbread]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

She's moderate and her approvals are stable, I am looking at other states like NC

You've predicted that the Dems will retake the Senate. How do you foresee that happening without ME?

I suppose there’s a narrow path to 51 seats without ME:

-AL +CO +AZ +NC +GA(s) +GA

Dems betting everything on winning both GA seats is worrisome, however.

I wouldn't bet any amount on taking both GA seats. Even winning just one is an uphill battle. ME is much easier, but I still think the DNC should be investing heavily in ME, GA, NC, and AZ.

[MarkD]

Can someone explain what the thread title means because to me it looks like gibberish

I think it's supposed to be a play on "I can't really be calling it yet."

yeah it is

At least someone has finally answered the question which I asked twice before on this thread and was ignored. Harumpf.

Collins still has not yet announced whether she is going to run. She told a reporter earlier this year that she would make up her mind by the end of this year, and we've still got about 3 weeks to go. USAToday reported, on October 12, that she "still hasn't announced her 2020 run." She's still raising millions, why is she taking so long to announce whether she is actually going to run?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME is part of the Dem math to take over Senate but Dems have KS, NC and AZ to take over Senate as well as CO

[MarkD]

Susan Collins to announce reelection plans this week.

[wbrocks67]

Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

Ernst is not moderate.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1207259116613373956?s=21

[Gracile]

^Not surprising. All the talk about her retiring seemed like wishful thinking on the part of Democrats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1207259116613373956?s=21

She’s never had a real job before so no surprise