ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SMC is in a coal mining state, whereas, Collins is in a Democratic leaning state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SMC is in a coal mining state, whereas, Collins is in a Democratic leaning state.

SMC is Susan Margaret Collins dude.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Capito is whom I was referring to

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Capito is whom I was referring to

Oh ok nvm.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

If this seat is open it would become Lean D (maybe even Likely if the ME GOP nominates a joke).

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That would be a Christmas miracle, but if her polling was so bad that she opted not to run anyway then that means she probably would've lost regardless

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

[Ilhan Apologist]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

If this seat is open it would become Lean D (maybe even Likely if the ME GOP nominates a joke).

I think it would start out as likely D if she dropped out.

[Ilhan Apologist]

That would be a Christmas miracle, but if her polling was so bad that she opted not to run anyway then that means she probably would've lost regardless

Nah, she might just not want to run in a serious, competitive election--considering she always thought of herself as "above partisan politics"

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

[MT Treasurer]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

Either way, pretending like Golden’s re-election is gonna be easy even against Brakey is just dumb. Poliquin was a pretty bad incumbent whose only strength as a candidate was his fundraising and Golden was a pretty good one, and Golden only barely won.

Iowa “loved its incumbents” until last year it didn’t and sent two and almost three packing

[MT Treasurer]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

Either way, pretending like Golden’s re-election is gonna be easy even against Brakey is just dumb. Poliquin was a pretty bad incumbent whose only strength as a candidate was his fundraising and Golden was a pretty good one, and Golden only barely won.

Iowa “loved its incumbents” until last year it didn’t and sent two and almost three packing

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that Golden has a better chance of winning reelection than beating Collins, especially with how weak the current GOP field in ME-02 appears to be. He’s tailor-made for his district, and I don’t think his 2018 strategy would be easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins.

[Politician]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Revisionism at work, folks. Golden is an incumbent now and Brakey list this district by 10% in his Senate run.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Revisionism at work, folks. Golden is an incumbent now and Brakey list this district by 10% in his Senate run.

How is that revisionism? Poliquin was widely regarded as a parody of an out of touch Wall Street Banker who never had real ties to the district, continuously shopped for office, and had a number of gaffes (running into a woman’s bathroom)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

"It's dark money's fault! Nothing to do with my voting record."

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Jared Golden done messed up not running for Senate. He’d probably even be favored right now. Instead he’s in the fight of his life in an uphill seat

Right, Eric Brakey is gonna give him the fight of his life

Bruce Poliquin nearly won last year and he was one of the worst fits for that seat ever

Poliquin was an uncontroversial incumbent in a seat which usually doesn’t boot out its incumbents. He may not have been the best "fit" for the district, but he wasn’t some incredibly weak incumbent either.

Either way, pretending like Golden’s re-election is gonna be easy even against Brakey is just dumb. Poliquin was a pretty bad incumbent whose only strength as a candidate was his fundraising and Golden was a pretty good one, and Golden only barely won.

Iowa “loved its incumbents” until last year it didn’t and sent two and almost three packing

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that Golden has a better chance of winning reelection than beating Collins, especially with how weak the current GOP field in ME-02 appears to be. He’s tailor-made for his district, and I don’t think his 2018 strategy would be easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins.

Well Collins herself confirmed she is underwater now, so it’s not like she the same unbeatable goddess that she once was. Personally if it were me and I had a choice between:

(a) run against a slightly unpopular incumbent senator in a state Clinton won by 3% or

(b) run for re-election in a seat Trump won by 10% and is likely to easily carry again

I think most rational people would have gone with (a.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

If this seat is open it would become Lean D Likely D(maybe even Likely if the ME GOP nominates a joke).

FTFY

[President Johnson]

Hopefully she retires. This makes it an easy pick-up for Democrats, moving my rating from tilt Republican to likely Democratic.

[We Live in Black and White]

I'm not willing to call Maine a safe pickup without Collins, but her retirement would still be a godsend, especially with how hilariously bad the MEGOP's bench is.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1154436030612869127

 

Oooohh, she scared. She knows she's in trouble with her approval numbers plunging and Gideon's fundraising certainly doesn't help either.

[windjammer]

She's obviously running.

[YE]

Don’t get your hopes up guys.