ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Landslide Lyndon]

Just for the record, Mark Pryor was running neck 'n' neck with Tom Cotton in the summer of 2014.
Now, of course Maine isn't as heavily Democratic as Arkansas is Republican. But then again nobody is saying that Collins will lose by 17 points.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone remember this poll:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

[LimoLiberal]

If Biden is leading by big margins in the fall and voters largely expect him to win, Collins could cast herself as a check on a Biden presidency which could allow some Biden-Collins voters. This is what happened in 2016 in many Clinton-friendly suburban districts (VA-10, MN-03).

It's also possible that the GOP is too inexorably linked to Trump at this point that that sort of strategy is untenable. But if any GOPer were able to use an almost certain Biden presidency to their advantage it would be Collins, who had a moderate reputation in Maine for decades before the Trump era. 

[WD]

If Biden is leading by big margins in the fall and voters largely expect him to win, Collins could cast herself as a check on a Biden presidency which could allow some Biden-Collins voters. This is what happened in 2016 in many Clinton-friendly suburban districts (VA-10, MN-03).

It's also possible that the GOP is too inexorably linked to Trump at this point that that sort of strategy is untenable. But if any GOPer were able to use an almost certain Biden presidency to their advantage it would be Collins, who had a moderate reputation in Maine for decades before the Trump era. 

Not really, Trump’s upset win boosted GOP canidates, people did not vote for GOP house canidates because they thought it would be a check on Clinton. Right before the election people like Sabato predicted a gain of 13 for the Dems in the house in 2016, when they only picked up 6, so it was more Trump over preforming than people trying to put a check on Clinton.

Also what makes you think people want a check on Biden? He’s leading by double digits and voters are dissatisfied with both Trump and the GOP, the last thing they’d want to do is allow Republicans to get in the way of Biden’s agenda.

[MT Treasurer]

This is a senate race in a small state; politics is much more local.

This statement is rather meaningless. The same logic could apply to Heitkamp in 2018, or Bacaus in 2014, or Heller in 2018, etc. In fact, this same train of logic also serves to benefit Sarah Gideon.

Yes, Heitkamp lost, but do people forget that she actually outperformed Clinton by 25 points? 

Baucus was vulnerable in 2014 but not even close to DOA.

Heller only beat a corrupt trash-tier candidate by 1 point and received fewer votes than Romney, not exactly comparable to Collins' electoral record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope it news to people that Ds arent gonna get more than 3 or 4 seats, 7 to 10 seats is unlikely.  Collins will win

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

It's amazing how this thread is already a trainwreck and we haven't even had a notable, high-quality poll since before COVID.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe users expected this was gonna be an easy race an it's not. Now, McSally is in a dead heat with Kelly and users still think he is gonna win by 15, not. Last poll had it McSally plus 4.

Hickenlooper isnt gonna win by 11 either. His lead is gonna be down to 4 when they survey LV

[GoldenMainer]

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

This remains a concern for me heading into late summer and fall. Gideon has done a nice job going after Collins but she hasn't done a good job of defining who she is and hammering home a brand for herself. Jared Golden leaned into his military service. Ads for Janet Mills focused on her marrying a widower and helping him raise his 5 kids. I still have no idea who Sara Gideon is aside from being the speaker of the Maine House of Reps. If she doesn't define herself, Collins will (and she's already starting to do so). That's why I wanted Troy Jackson as the nominee- a logger who got their start in politics by protesting labor conditions is so Maine, it hurts.

I still think Gideon can win. She's a prolific fundraiser and in a presidential year, she should be able to ride Biden coattails. It won't be easy though. Collins does a great job making herself visible across the state. She was visiting Lubec and Jackman for the 4th of July- both are in the 2nd district and she likely sees the 2nd district as an opportunity to bail her out since she's from there and Gideon isn't and it was Trump +10.

[Oryxslayer]

It's amazing how this thread is already a trainwreck and we haven't even had a notable, high-quality poll since before COVID.

Well, we got that high quality poll and it confirms that Gideon is ahead and Collins is hated. She's -11 on independent approval. I think though that Collins is only getting 9% of self-identified Clinton voters and down by 5 in Others voters is the big kicker to what needs to be a campaign based on crossover. There is plenty of other crosstabs that confirm Collins has lost her crossover appeal.

[wbrocks67]

It's amazing how this thread is already a trainwreck and we haven't even had a notable, high-quality poll since before COVID.

Well, we got that high quality poll and it confirms that Gideon is ahead and Collins is hated. She's -11 on independent approval. I think though that Collins is only getting 9% of self-identified Clinton voters and down by 5 in Others voters is the big kicker to what needs to be a campaign based on crossover. There is plenty of other crosstabs that confirm Collins has lost her crossover appeal.

Exactly. I don't foresee Democrats in Maine (other than the 5-10% that always vote for the other party in every election) voting for Collins this time around. And if she's lost Independents, then she's 100% screwed.

[LimoLiberal]

LMAO. Sure, jan

snip

Not sure if you realize this, but the votes of an energized Democratic base which will foam at the mouth no matter what Collins does won’t be enough to beat her. It would be enough in pretty much any other "blue" state, but not in ME.

It’s not like Gideon hasn’t received negative press or only Collins has been subjected to attack ads (especially recently), so not sure why this is so incredibly hard to believe.

I always like to snoop around these candidates' Facebook pages to get a feel for their campaigns. With Mark Kelly you have astronaut, Cunningham has military cred, Bullock talks about Montana bipartisanship, Greenfield worked on a farm. Sara Gideon's messaging is basically bland liberal. There's no attempt to portray herself as bipartisan and independent. Maybe she can win off the backs of an energized liberal base, but I think ceding the "independent" lane to Collins is a mistake that could hurt her.

Maybe someone from the Gideon camp read my post because she just released an ad about bipartisanship on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1280303532491575296

[wbrocks67]

Seems like Gideon has a pretty coherent message to me

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1280299778102964229

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Maybe users expected this was gonna be an easy race an it's not. Now, McSally is in a dead heat with Kelly and users still think he is gonna win by 15, not. Last poll had it McSally plus 4.

Hickenlooper isnt gonna win by 11 either. His lead is gonna be down to 4 when they survey LV

That poll with McSally up 4 was an outlier though. And another issue is that there is no way she is running at Trump's level.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

If people actually looked at the ads Sara Gideon aired they would see that she defined herself as bipartisan and actually gave pretty good examples of it. She also had "supper with Sara" thing where she goes up to different places in Maine and has dinner with people while also talking with them about the issues that voters care about (now doing it online due to covid19).

I think Susan Collins' chances and her brand is very overrated. The country is in a very different place now than in 2014. If we were to take past elections as the most important sign then Pryor would've won in 2014 because he was not even challenged in 2008. But the reality is that he lost by 17 points.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/sherylnyt/status/1280512953687650304?s=21

[Lognog]

If people actually looked at the ads Sara Gideon aired they would see that she defined herself as bipartisan and actually gave pretty good examples of it. She also had "supper with Sara" thing where she goes up to different places in Maine and has dinner with people while also talking with them about the issues that voters care about (now doing it online due to covid19).

I think Susan Collins' chances and her brand is very overrated. The country is in a very different place now than in 2014. If we were to take past elections as the most important sign then Pryor would've won in 2014 because he was not even challenged in 2008. But the reality is that he lost by 17 points.

This. The ads she puts forth aren't super entertaining to people on talk elections, but they constantly stay on message with things people actually value in maine like Reproductive rights and prescription drug cost. She does not seem out of touch at all. While she is doing great events like Supper with Sara, her opponent is dodging town halls and the press which she could possibly get away with in other states but not maine

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/sherylnyt/status/1280512953687650304?s=21

While I'm strongly rooting for Gideon (who is one of my favorite candidates) and think Collins deserves to lose, I still wish we could get out other Republican senators like Marsha Blackburn instead.

Anyway, she's trying to have it both ways. She needs Trump's voters, but she also relies on some other voters, probably mostly women, who will cast their ballot for Joe Biden in November.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sherylnyt/status/1280512953687650304?s=21

Too little, too late

[GoldenMainer]

If people actually looked at the ads Sara Gideon aired they would see that she defined herself as bipartisan and actually gave pretty good examples of it. She also had "supper with Sara" thing where she goes up to different places in Maine and has dinner with people while also talking with them about the issues that voters care about (now doing it online due to covid19).

The healthcare ads are great. I still think she needs to give her campaign more of a personal touch ala Jared Golden & Janet Mills. It'd be smart to see what the Democrats who have actually gotten elected in the state have done and incorporate that into what she is already doing. For her, it would probably be leaning into how being a mom of young kids shapes her approach to policy. Susan Collins doesn't have any kids and she's married to a D.C. lobbyist so I don't see why Gideon wouldn't use the opportunity to connect with voters in a way Collins can not.

[wbrocks67]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

[VAR]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

IMO it's smarter to attack on healthcare than Roger Stone/impeachment.

[LimoLiberal]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

I mean, Collins is a federal lawmaker who was involved in creating the PPP legislation. Gideon is the Speaker of the Maine State House. I don't see how her husband taking PPP money is relevant.

[VAR]

The ads really just write themselves.

https://twitter.com/SaraGideon/status/1281766994648469505

The ads write themselves but are never used. Instead she accuses Collins of pocketing money from pharmaceutical companies and intentionally including a loophole in the PPP that benefits hotels. Then her husband, who’s a lawyer, is revealed to have benefited from PPP money. Oh, and she feels the need to respond to a stupid NRSC attack ad, prompting the NRSC to use her ad to make another.

IMO it's smarter to attack on healthcare than Roger Stone/impeachment.

It isn’t smarter if it doesn’t work. I guess that’s why she’s leading someone with a -20 approval rating by just 4 points despite outspending that person 2-to-1 since March.